Quarterback projection to the next level is not a total crapshoot but it is close. There are so many intangibles, as well as questions like "can he read defenses at the next level", "can he read the field quick enough at the next level", etc. Steve Spurrier had nothing but busts in the NFL in 26 seasons, except for Rex Grossman who himself was usually a punching bag. Bama's wishbone produced as much NFL success in 12 years (Todd and Rutlege) as Surrier's passing attack in 26 years. Spurrier also had many highly ranked recruits who bombed at the college level. That's not a criticism of Spurrier as much as it is showing how hard it is to evaluate the QB position. Then you have Delaware who produced Rich Gannon and Joe Flacco. Purdue produced Bob Griese, Gary Danielson, Mark Hermann, Jim Everette, Drew Brees, Len Dawson, Kyle Orton, not counting some lesser lights who played a little. That was over many years and coaches.
Under evaluated prospects: Bart Starr: 17th round, Unitas: 9th, Curt Warner: FA, Tom Brady: 6th, et al., too many to name them all. As well, multitudes of first round busts. That's in the NFL. And they have much more to work with than college coaches. Far fewer players to consider. They are significantly older and have played at a much higher level. NFL franchises have much more expertise in their scouting depts. Of course many high picks have had great success but it is difficult to project. Just this year you have Prescott:4th round vs Jared Goff: first pick. Dak had more QBs taken before him, 7, than after him, 6. While there was some doubt about Goff's future success, no one even dreamed of Dak's immediate success, not even his mother. Which brings us to another element - time and chance. Though definitely talented physically, with great intangibles, Dak has been very fortunate to land on a terrific offensive team and to have had the Romo injury.
So, it's hard enough to find a QB at the HS level to play at the college level, much less to go on to the NFL. You don't even have the same motivation.
Sorry for the opus.
Under evaluated prospects: Bart Starr: 17th round, Unitas: 9th, Curt Warner: FA, Tom Brady: 6th, et al., too many to name them all. As well, multitudes of first round busts. That's in the NFL. And they have much more to work with than college coaches. Far fewer players to consider. They are significantly older and have played at a much higher level. NFL franchises have much more expertise in their scouting depts. Of course many high picks have had great success but it is difficult to project. Just this year you have Prescott:4th round vs Jared Goff: first pick. Dak had more QBs taken before him, 7, than after him, 6. While there was some doubt about Goff's future success, no one even dreamed of Dak's immediate success, not even his mother. Which brings us to another element - time and chance. Though definitely talented physically, with great intangibles, Dak has been very fortunate to land on a terrific offensive team and to have had the Romo injury.
So, it's hard enough to find a QB at the HS level to play at the college level, much less to go on to the NFL. You don't even have the same motivation.
Sorry for the opus.