Well, let's try the prediction statistical model yet again:
PAST USES OF THIS MODEL
2013 BCS Title Game: Alabama 28 Notre Dame 7
2014 Sugar Bowl: Alabama Ohio State pick 'em
2015 Cotton Bowl: Alabama 31 Michigan State 10 (I fudged it to 17 because I couldn't believe it)
2016 Title Game: Alabama 27 Clemson 17 (got the score wrong but we were up by 12 with seconds left)
Super Bowl XLIX: Seattle 28 New England 24 (hey, if Pete Carroll hadn't phoned Les Miles......)
Super Bowl XL: Carolina 28 Denver 23
2016 Peach Bowl: Alabama 30 Washington 16
2017 Title Game: Alabama 31 Clemson 17
(Record is 5-3, but look closely at the numbers - it's statistics based not emotion based.
Remember - this uses STATISTICS. Go look at the scores and the point spread, and it's usually very good. Yes, it presumably blew up last time, but it really didn't. Statistical models by definition cannot take into account poor officiating, injuries to key players, or stupid penalties. Every time a team is flagged for 75 yards in penalties, you can put seven points on the board because that totals a drive. So Clemson was basically spotted seven additional points above average by Alabama (which would get them to 24) and then basically given two illegal touchdowns on pick plays - meaning if you're considering stat averages the model still works.
Do not bet on the basis of this, but here is how I see it. Note my bias: what little NFL I watch I've been a Falcons fan for 40 years, and I go back to the days of Steve Bartkowski, Alfred Jenkins and Jackson, William Andrews, Bob Glazebrook, Mick Luckurst, Bobby Butler, etc. Mike Kenn, Joel Williams. So I do have a bias here. However....
This game pits the league’s #1 offense (Atlanta) against the #1 defense (New England) in a battle to make history: either the Brady-Belichick legend adds a record fifth Lombardi Trophy or the Falcons finally win a Super Bowl more than half a century after their entry into the NFL.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
The Patriots went 14-2 with a schedule that achieved an overall record of 137-145-3, including a current seven-game win streak and a 4-1 regular season record against playoff teams. Their two losses were to Buffalo and Seattle, and the first one might well be written off to the quarterbacking problems that plagued New England while Tom Brady served his four-game suspension for Deflate-gate. The Falcons went 11-5 with a schedule that achieved an overall record of 142-135-3 and a 2-2 record against playoff teams in the regular season.
The teams shared a few common opponents:
Arizona – Atlanta won by 19, New England by 2 but Brady missed the game
Seattle – Atlanta lost by 2 and New England by 7; in the rematch, Atlanta won by 16
San Francisco – Atlanta won by 28 at home and New England won by 13 on the road
LA Rams – Atlanta won by 28 on the road while New England won by 16 at home
Denver – Atlanta won on the road by 7 and New England won on the road by 13
Thus, New England went 3-2 and Atlanta 5-1 against common opponents but the numbers are also fudged by Brady’s suspension. Atlanta was sitting at 7-5 on December 4 when they caught fire and won their next six games. However, their final four games of the regular season that clinched them a #2 playoff spot were against teams with an overall record of 19-45. The Falcons then got a break when the top-seeded Dallas Cowboys lost to Green Bay, thus ensuring another home game in the NFC championship. They got still another break in playing the Packers, who had just played two playoff games to their one.
OFFENSE (ATLANTA)
The Falcons have the league’s top offense,a high-powered passing game led by Matt Ryan. See below for their record against defenses, rankings of the top defenses in parentheses by team. The number next to AVG PPG in parentheses is the ‘corrected PPG,’ a subtraction of the Falcons points with a re-calculated PPG to give a clearer picture and eliminate redundancy.
TEAM AVG PPG FALCONS PPG
Seattle (3) 18.2 (17.8) 24 and 36 (+7, +19)
Denver (4) 18.6 (17.4) 23 (+6)
KC (7) 19.4 (18.8) 28 (+10)
Philly (12) 20.7 (21.0) 15 (-6)
Arizona 22.6 (21.6) 38 (+16)
Tampa 23.1 (23.0) 24 and 43
Oakland 24.1 (23.3) 35 (+12)
Green Bay 24.2 (23.6) 33 and 44 (+9/+21)
LA Rams 24.6 (23.4) 42 (+18)
Carolina 25.1 (22.9) 33 and 48 (+10/+23)
San Diego 26.4 (26.2) 30 (4)
New Orleans 28.4 (26.5) 45 and 38 (+17/+10)
San Francisco 30.0 (29.2) 41 (+11)
Overall, Atlanta tends to score 11.5 ppg more than defenses surrender. If you limit it only to the league’s top 15 defenses, the Falcons still average 7.2 ppg more than the opponent generally permits. The Falcons also average 34.4 ppg on offense. This means that given an AVERAGE performance by the Falcons offense should net them 23-27 points at a minimum.
You would think the Falcons high number of passes would translate into a high number of turnovers, but it has not. Atlanta has turned the ball over only 11 times while gaining 22 from the opposition. Matt Ryan, the key to the Falcons offense has only thrown seven interceptions in 18 games.
OFFENSE (NEW ENGLAND)
The Patriots have the league’s number three offense, averaging 28.3 ppg, and if you eliminate the games where Brady was suspended, they have the league’s number two offense that averages 30.7 ppg.
TEAM AVG PPG PATRIOTS PPG
Seattle (3) 18.2 (17.8) 24
Denver (4) 18.6 (18.4) 16
Cincinnati (8) 19.7 (18.6) 35
Baltimore (9) 20.1 (19.4) 30
Pittsburgh (10) 20.4 (20) 27/36
Houston (11) 20.5 (20.1) 27/34
Arizona (13) 22.6 (22.6) 23
Buffalo (17) 23.6 (22.4) 0/41
Miami 23.8 (22.4) 35/31
LA Rams 24.6 (24.5) 26
NY Jets 25.6 (24.7) 22/41
Cleveland 28.2 (27.9) 33
SF 49ers 30.0 (30.0) 30
The Patriots have only turned the ball over 11 teams, a phenomenal accomplishment when you consider they started three quarterbacks not named Tom Brady in the season’s first four games. The Patriots score an average of 7.9 ppg above what a team averages surrendering. Since Atlanta normally gives up 25.4 ppg, the Patriots should score 33 points if they simply play average.
DEFENSE
The Patriots have the league’s top defense, surrendering only 15.6 ppg. They’ve taken in 23 turnovers. The Falcons are ranked just below the Patriots in turnover margin, but their atrocious defense ranks 27th in league. The teams closest to Atlanta in defense that New England has played are Cleveland and the NY Jets. In two games, the Patriots averaged 31.5 ppg against the Jets and drilled Cleveland for 33. Thus, the offensive projection of 33 points for the Patriots is reinforced with more data.
TEAM AVG PPG FALCONS (25.6)
New Orleans (2) 29.3 (28.9) 32, 32 (+2/+2)
Green Bay (4) 27.0 (26.6) 32, 21 (+5/-6)
Arizona (6) 26.1 (26.6) 19 (-7)
Oakland (7) 26.0 (25.8) 28 (+2)
San Diego (9) 25.6 (25.3) 30 (+5) – regulation only
Kansas City (13) 24.3 (24.0) 29 (+5)
Carolina (15) 23.1 (22.8) 33/16 (+10/-7)
Philadelphia (16) 22.9 (22.9) 24 (+1)
Seattle 22.1 (22.0) 26/20 (+4/-2)
Tampa 22.1 (21.1) 31/28 (+9/+7)
Denver 20.8 (21.1) 16 (-5)
San Francisco 19.3 (19.7) 13 (-6)
LA Rams 14.0 (14.0) 14 (0)
Over the course of the season, teams basically score what they average against Atlanta. Note, however, that these numbers are slanted towards the league’s anemic offenses. The Falcons have played seven games against the league’s top ten offenses and SIX of those seven exceeded their ppg average against Atlanta. And the one that failed to accomplish this also had the misfortune of playing Atlanta on the road when the Falcons were coming off their bye week. Based on other statistics, it is doubtful that Atlanta would have held Arizona to only 19 points without the advantage of a break. In the playoffs, the Falcons held both teams below their average (slightly) but note the Falcons played both games with an advantage – an off week while the Seahawks played the Lions and then getting Green Bay at home right after the Packers had played two games to the Falcons’ one. This further suggests the Patriots will punch in 33 points.
TEAM AVG PPG PATRIOTS (15.6)
Arizona (6) 26.1 (26.4) 21
Buffalo (10) 24.9 (25.5) 16/25 (-9/0)
Pittsburgh (10) 24.9 (26.1) 17/16 (-9/-10)
Miami (17) 22.7 (23.2) 24/14 (+1/-9)
Seattle 22.1 (21.5) 31 (+10)
Baltimore 21.4 (21.3) 23 (+2)
Denver 20.8 (21.0) 3 (-17)
Cincinnati 20.3 (20.5) 17 (-3)
San Fran 19.3 (19.4) 17 (-2)
Houston 17.4 (17.5) 0/16 (-17/-1)
NY Jets 17.2 (18,2) 3/17 (-14/-1)
Cleveland 16.5 (16.7) 13 (-3)
LA Rams 14.0 (14.1) 10 (-4)
A close look suggests that New England's top-ranked defense may be - MAY be - slightly overrated. While it's true that the Patriots only surrender 15.6 ppg, look closer.......TWELVE of their 18 games were against teams in the BOTTOM HALF of the NFL in offense. In fact, the Pats played FIVE games against the three worst offenses in the NFL, and they held those teams nearly EIGHT points BELOW their averages. This skews the data just a bit. However, the Patriots also played five games against top ten offenses and held them to nearly the same eight ppg under their usual total. This suggests the Falcons should get about 22 points, reinforcing the 23 points their offense should be able to expect from its own output.
INTANGIBLES
How do you go against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick? On the flip side - do you realize that regardless of whom they played, good offense or defense or bad offense or defense......they're 3-4 point games?
won 36 (20-17)
won 38 (32-29)
won 39 (24-21)
lost 42 (17-14)
lost 46 (21-17)
won 49 (28-24)
CONCLUSIONS
The statistical data support a New England victory with a scoring range of 29-33 points for the Patriots and 22-25 points for the Falcons. Remember - that's if BOTH teams play to their statistical norm, which generally happens. A pick six by the Falcons, for example, can flip the game.
Look for an exciting game, but the Patriots win, 31-27.