Offensive coordinator discussion/odds...

Isaiah 63:1 · Feb 9, 2017

tide96 said:
Favors the field? Based on his odds, the field is about 14-1.

That's not how statistics works.

If we define Jess' favorites as Godsey and Napier, each at 6-1, the the field is everyone else. Calculate the odds that neither Godsey nor Napier gets it, and the remaining likelihood is the field's.

At 6-1, the independent probability that each of the two favorites doesn't get the job is 83% (5/6). The likelihood that neither gets it is 83% x 83%, or 69%, which is therefore the probability that the successful candidate comes from the field (all other candidates; those named by Jess plus everyone else in the known universe, including you and me). Include Locksley (7-1) as a favorite, and the field's probability is still 60%. Finally, include the last candidate better than 10-1 (Kelly; 8-1), and the field drops to 53%; slightly favored; but still favored.

When there's no prohibitive favorite, the odds favor the field.

Disclosure - I was an econ major, and so statistics was a required course. I flunked it the first time and had to retake it. So, there's that for you to consider...

CrimsonProf · Feb 9, 2017

Isaiah 63:1 said:
That's not how statistics works.

If we define Jess' favorites as Godsey and Napier, each at 6-1, the the field is everyone else. Calculate the odds that neither Godsey nor Napier gets it, and the remaining likelihood is the field's.

At 6-1, the independent probability that each of the two favorites doesn't get the job is 83% (5/6). The likelihood that neither gets it is 83% x 83%, or 69%, which is therefore the probability that the successful candidate comes from the field (all other candidates; those named by Jess plus everyone else in the known universe, including you and me). Include Locksley (7-1) as a favorite, and the field's probability is still 60%. Finally, include the last candidate better than 10-1 (Kelly; 8-1), and the field drops to 53%; slightly favored; but still favored.

When there's no prohibitive favorite, the odds favor the field.

Disclosure - I was an econ major, and so statistics was a required course. I flunked it the first time and had to retake it. So, there's that for you to consider...

I still have dreams at majoring in Econ and working at AEI.

C'est la vie.

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Isaiah 63:1 · Feb 9, 2017

CrimsonProf said:
I still have dreams at majoring in Econ and working at AEI.

C'est la vie.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That's funny: I majored in economics and occasionally dream in French...

gtowntide · Feb 9, 2017

Isaiah 63:1 said:
That's not how statistics works.

If we define Jess' favorites as Godsey and Napier, each at 6-1, the the field is everyone else. Calculate the odds that neither Godsey nor Napier gets it, and the remaining likelihood is the field's.

At 6-1, the independent probability that each of the two favorites doesn't get the job is 83% (5/6). The likelihood that neither gets it is 83% x 83%, or 69%, which is therefore the probability that the successful candidate comes from the field (all other candidates; those named by Jess plus everyone else in the known universe, including you and me). Include Locksley (7-1) as a favorite, and the field's probability is still 60%. Finally, include the last candidate better than 10-1 (Kelly; 8-1), and the field drops to 53%; slightly favored; but still favored.

When there's no prohibitive favorite, the odds favor the field.

Disclosure - I was an econ major, and so statistics was a required course. I flunked it the first time and had to retake it. So, there's that for you to consider...

I didn't graduate from college and this makes my head hurt!

Al A Bama · Feb 9, 2017

George Godsey didn't seem to do a good job with the Texan QB's the past two years. Maybe it was because there was a LACK of TALENT at that position.

Charlie Weis, please let him remain RETIRED. Do we really want him eating on our dime or waddling around the practice field? Now, I THINK he did a good job at one time with the Patriots. But as a head coach, he wasn't so good. In fact, I thought he was real BAD! However, we don't need a Head Coach. We do need someone who can move around, teach QB's the game, and not sit on an ICE Chest/Cooler to relax and REST when he needs to be TEACHING the finer points of the game.

That Arkansas coach looks good to me. I really liked that TE lateral to an outstanding RB who got a first down and the Hogs went on to defeat those Ole Sis Rebels and we ended up with another NC. He can add that desperation play to our playbook.

Chip Kelly could destroy the Saban system and then be GONE first chance something is available. Ditto, his former assistant.

Just my CURRENT thoughts. However, Coach Saban is the MAN and I'll just depend on Him to make the Right/Correct/Accurate decision. If Tom Brady can teach QB's to play the way he plays, hire him. I guess he may add at least one more SB to his trophy case.

Al A Bama · Feb 9, 2017

Is there someone NOT on Jess' list that could be a SURPRISE choice?

jfcross4 · Feb 9, 2017

Isaiah 63:1 said:
That's not how statistics works.

If we define Jess' favorites as Godsey and Napier, each at 6-1, the the field is everyone else. Calculate the odds that neither Godsey nor Napier gets it, and the remaining likelihood is the field's.

At 6-1, the independent probability that each of the two favorites doesn't get the job is 83% (5/6). The likelihood that neither gets it is 83% x 83%, or 69%, which is therefore the probability that the successful candidate comes from the field (all other candidates; those named by Jess plus everyone else in the known universe, including you and me). Include Locksley (7-1) as a favorite, and the field's probability is still 60%. Finally, include the last candidate better than 10-1 (Kelly; 8-1), and the field drops to 53%; slightly favored; but still favored.

When there's no prohibitive favorite, the odds favor the field.

Disclosure - I was an econ major, and so statistics was a required course. I flunked it the first time and had to retake it. So, there's that for you to consider...

I think you might need to take that Stats class one more time

These chances aren't independent (two coaches won't both get the job), they're mutually exclusive, so we can add the probabilities. Also, 6-1 implies a 1/7 chance of getting the job and a 6/7 chance of not getting the job. If we add the probabilities for the coaches listed we get 83.5% which gives the field 5.08-1, a definite dog. That said, since you typically can't bet against given line maybe JessN is just adding some "juice" to make these lines work for the house.

JessN · Feb 10, 2017

DrollTide said:
Thanks Jess. It looks like your odds favor the field. Would you casually scribble down a few other names with no analysis that did not quite make your list?

Brian Schottenheimer's name gets tossed around when jobs in this region come up, and if Kiffin had left after the 2015 season rather than the 2016 season it's possible he could have joined the UA staff, as there were some conversations. I think he gets a bad rap for the 2015 Georgia season because whether it was him, Mike Bobo or whoever, the guy that ran the Georgia offense was Mark Richt, just like Saban runs Alabama's defense. Schottenheimer is QB coach with the Colts and would listen to an offer.

Mike Bloomgren, the OC at Stanford, began as a Bama grad assistant in 1999 and is highly regarded among pro-style adherents. I heard again today more info to back up the notion that UA may be getting ready to back off the spread a bit and edge toward a more straightforward pro-style look. If that happens, Bloomgren is a great fit -- except for one important detail: He has never coached QBs in his life. He's an OL coach by trade.

This isn't a big deal per se but there's rumor going around that Joe Pannuzio may be rejoining the staff as TE/ST coach. That would shift Locksley to WR and, unless the additional assistant coach gets approved later this spring (expected, but not guaranteed), the OC *has* to be a QB coach. The Pannuzio rumor may be spitting in the wind, I don't know. Assuming it's legit, though, Bloomgren and anyone on that list (most notably Kelly) that isn't a QB coach gets 86'ed.

*EDIT: Oh yeah, I didn't mean to get a stats class brewhaha started. I was just throwing numbers at the problem and hoped no one would notice. (g)

drwho · Feb 10, 2017

jfcross4 said:
I think you might need to take that Stats class one more time

These chances aren't independent (two coaches won't both get the job), they're mutually exclusive, so we can add the probabilities. Also, 6-1 implies a 1/7 chance of getting the job and a 6/7 chance of not getting the job. If we add the probabilities for the coaches listed we get 83.5% which gives the field 5.08-1, a definite dog. That said, since you typically can't bet against given line maybe JessN is just adding some "juice" to make these lines work for the house.

Math fight! I love it!

drwho · Feb 10, 2017

JessN said:
Brian Schottenheimer's name gets tossed around when jobs in this region come up, and if Kiffin had left after the 2015 season rather than the 2016 season it's possible he could have joined the UA staff, as there were some conversations. I think he gets a bad rap for the 2015 Georgia season because whether it was him, Mike Bobo or whoever, the guy that ran the Georgia offense was Mark Richt, just like Saban runs Alabama's defense. Schottenheimer is QB coach with the Colts and would listen to an offer.

Mike Bloomgren, the OC at Stanford, began as a Bama grad assistant in 1999 and is highly regarded among pro-style adherents. I heard again today more info to back up the notion that UA may be getting ready to back off the spread a bit and edge toward a more straightforward pro-style look. If that happens, Bloomgren is a great fit -- except for one important detail: He has never coached QBs in his life. He's an OL coach by trade.

This isn't a big deal per se but there's rumor going around that Joe Pannuzio may be rejoining the staff as TE/ST coach. That would shift Locksley to WR and, unless the additional assistant coach gets approved later this spring (expected, but not guaranteed), the OC *has* to be a QB coach. The Pannuzio rumor may be spitting in the wind, I don't know. Assuming it's legit, though, Bloomgren and anyone on that list (most notably Kelly) that isn't a QB coach gets 86'ed.

*EDIT: Oh yeah, I didn't mean to get a stats class brewhaha started. I was just throwing numbers at the problem and hoped no one would notice. (g)

I wouldn't mind Bloomgren at all.

TitleWave · Feb 10, 2017

Al A Bama said:
Is there someone NOT on Jess' list that could be a SURPRISE choice?

Tom Clements

pluckngrit · Feb 10, 2017

Al A Bama said:
Is there someone NOT on Jess' list that could be a SURPRISE choice?

Likely, considering Sabans past choices have come all come out of left field.

dadleyblane5 · Feb 10, 2017

My two out of this group are Napier and Enos. (No, I don't wanna bet...lol)

bamacon · Feb 10, 2017

The last time I looked at a list like this was when he hired Coach Mac literally out of no where. Considering CNS was able to win with 3 different OCs I think we'll be aight regardless.

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jabcmb · Feb 10, 2017

TitleWave said:
Tom Clements

Tom Clements certainly has surprised Bama before.

AlBamaWagg · Feb 10, 2017

This statistics debate is comparable to a lost episode of The Big Bang Theory.

Bamabuzzard · Feb 10, 2017

JessN said:
Brian Schottenheimer's name gets tossed around when jobs in this region come up, and if Kiffin had left after the 2015 season rather than the 2016 season it's possible he could have joined the UA staff, as there were some conversations. I think he gets a bad rap for the 2015 Georgia season because whether it was him, Mike Bobo or whoever, the guy that ran the Georgia offense was Mark Richt, just like Saban runs Alabama's defense. Schottenheimer is QB coach with the Colts and would listen to an offer.

Mike Bloomgren, the OC at Stanford, began as a Bama grad assistant in 1999 and is highly regarded among pro-style adherents. I heard again today more info to back up the notion that UA may be getting ready to back off the spread a bit and edge toward a more straightforward pro-style look. If that happens, Bloomgren is a great fit -- except for one important detail: He has never coached QBs in his life. He's an OL coach by trade.

This isn't a big deal per se but there's rumor going around that Joe Pannuzio may be rejoining the staff as TE/ST coach. That would shift Locksley to WR and, unless the additional assistant coach gets approved later this spring (expected, but not guaranteed), the OC *has* to be a QB coach. The Pannuzio rumor may be spitting in the wind, I don't know. Assuming it's legit, though, Bloomgren and anyone on that list (most notably Kelly) that isn't a QB coach gets 86'ed.

*EDIT: Oh yeah, I didn't mean to get a stats class brewhaha started. I was just throwing numbers at the problem and hoped no one would notice. (g)

I would welcome it but in hopes that we didn't go full pendulum swing the other way. We're built to run power football AND go over the top with our WR's. But that doesn't mean we have to be cookie cutter about it. I'd like to see an invite by Saban to Josh McDaniels and Belichick to come down to TTown and give some pointers on how to mix the two (spread concepts and pro style) effectively.

RTR91 · Feb 10, 2017

JessN said:
Mike Bloomgren, the OC at Stanford, began as a Bama grad assistant in 1999 and is highly regarded among pro-style adherents. I heard again today more info to back up the notion that UA may be getting ready to back off the spread a bit and edge toward a more straightforward pro-style look. If that happens, Bloomgren is a great fit -- except for one important detail: He has never coached QBs in his life. He's an OL coach by trade.

This isn't a big deal per se but there's rumor going around that Joe Pannuzio may be rejoining the staff as TE/ST coach. That would shift Locksley to WR and, unless the additional assistant coach gets approved later this spring (expected, but not guaranteed), the OC *has* to be a QB coach. The Pannuzio rumor may be spitting in the wind, I don't know. Assuming it's legit, though, Bloomgren and anyone on that list (most notably Kelly) that isn't a QB coach gets 86'ed.

Would be a fan of a Bloomgren hire with one question - how much is the offense him compared to David Shaw? Similar to Nuss being with Sark in Washington, Helfrich with Kelly, and Garrick McGee with Bobby P. Does the OC get credit for what the HC is doing?

In regards to the tenth assistant, I can't help but think Clint Trickett was brought over to be a more dedicated QB coach when the proposal is approved. Of course, he wasn't making much at EMCC, but I can't imagine him coming to UA to solely be a GA like he tweeted last week.

bamanix · Feb 10, 2017

I think its pretty hard to back off of dual option qbs now. we have Jalen, and tua. also possibly tuas little brother. while I liked the label game manager In the past, I believe Jalen until he is able to produce more in the passing game was a game manager. I would like to see coach pick a offensive coordinator that can work with qbs, as well as coach all our offensive talent to control the game. we need 3d down offense to protect the defense, and score points on drives.

RedWave · Feb 10, 2017

I was listening to College Sports station on Sirius/XM when I first heard the news of Sark's departure. The host of that show immediately mentioned Rick Neuheisel, and Finebaum gave that name when he came on the show as well, but I think it was all in jest. I know there was a time we flirted with him back when we hired Dubose, and I know he has had some issues involving gambling, but that guy is a good offensive mind. He is probably too many years removed from doing any coaching to be eligible for this position. However, I do think very highly of Homer Smith, and thought he ran a very good offense under Stallings (when Stallings would actually let him call the plays he wanted to). Neuheisel is a Homer disciple.

Anyway, I am certain there are a plethora of reasons why this hire couldn't happen. I am just not so certain what they are. Just giving an out of left field possibility to chew on (or get roasted for).

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