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  1. #14
    Senior Administrator TIDE-HSV's Avatar
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    Re: Hypothetical: Who would have been impeached first? Hill or Don?

    I don't think they would have ever have pinned enough on Hillary for impeachment. That was mostly political theater. Before he took office, I didn't think the Republicans would ever vote for impeachment or conviction either one. After this short period, I'm no longer so sure. If he continues as he is and the Congressional Republicans can see that he might cost them the Whitehouse in 2020, possibly also the senate, they may decide to cut their losses and take their chances with Pence, who is really a conservative and, even better, reasonably predictable. At least he wouldn't think he'd been elected dictator for life. I'm sure he'll provide material for impeachment on a regular basis. IF he'd ditch Bannon, I think his chances of lasting out one term would improve immensely. And that brings me to a point I don't understand. Donald is not all that bright, together with being mentally unstable. However, Ivanka is bright, very bright. What happens when she realizes (already has?) that, in addition to having different goals in mind from 90% of the populace, he is a threat to father's chances at reelection, or even holding on to his job? What if she whispers gently one night "Dad, we need to talk"? Man, it's like a soap opera with genuine high stakes...
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  3. #15
    BamaNation Hall of Fame selmaborntidefan's Avatar
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    Re: Hypothetical: Who would have been impeached first? Hill or Don?

    In short, I basically agree with Earle. Now for the long.

    I don't see any set of circumstances where the Democrats would have assisted to remove Hillary, plain and simple. Ok, I take that back - if she had a stroke or something and was incapacitated and couldn't function, I'm sure they'd have found a way to install a different puppet not named Tim Kaine and would have removed her. But I presume we're talking about impeachment for breaking the law or whatever. Given how little respect the Democratic elite actually have for following the rules of anything (insert the Bloody Eighth, 2000 MO Senate race, 2002 NJ Senate race, 2002 MN Senate race, 2004 removal of Nader from ballots, not removing a President who unquestionably committed perjury/OOJ, ensuring that HRC was going to be the nominee even if she didn't get the most votes), I seriously doubt they'd have done this even if evidence arose she had a drone target a Democrat and executed him.

    And I'm not kidding. They simply wouldn't do it. They'd try to cover up the outflow of information on the grounds of 'national security.'

    That being said, I would usually regard the Republicans as only slightly less devious on that issue...but Trump changes the calculus. My Reagan Democrat friend in Oregon noted that the GOP - and this is truly bizarre - are better long-term political strategists than the Democrats are. (One could argue that's the result of them being almost exclusively the minority party from 1930-1994, even in the four years they held the House - it came about as a result of circumstances just like the Democratic assumption their majority would never permanently implode).

    The Democrats hate Trump and want him gone. A lot of Republicans feel and have felt the same way from day one. The GOP followed the rules agreed to before the election and gave their nomination to the guy who won it at the ballot box. And let me reiterate - I don't care what you see whichever representative saying on TV, they ultimately care more about their own re-election and keeping their jobs than who is President. (Have you ever noticed how many of those who held the office are better friends with those in the opposing party - even those they ripped as incompetent - after they held it rather than friends with their own party folks in DC?).

    If the GOP sees an opportunity to act on "this guy is nuts" and remove Trump and place Pence in the office to restore some national stability then I would not be surprised to see it happen. You need 67 Senate votes to remove him and I believe the Democrats have 48 seats. That means that only 19 Republicans would have to be willing to consider that they might get beat in an upcoming election in order to make the change. Plus, despite my reservations about the skunks who are in politics, there really are some folks who genuinely DO care about the future of the country and are not as beholden to ideology as others.

    And for those of you who think that guarantees a Pence loss in 2020, I'd advise you to get a reality check. You wanna go after him for when he was governor of Indiana and religious freedom/gay rights, go right ahead. It won't matter. I recall last fall when Pence was the one guy folks thought had some stature and dignity, which is sort of what we see when you watch the President nightly on television. The truth is that ideology and issues are a SMALL part at most of winning an election. Want proof? Just look at Gerald Ford. He wasn't even elected on a national ticket, was a bumbling oaf, was NOT an orator, and started behind the eight ball when he pardoned Nixon...yet he damn near won re-election against a party that came out of that same election with 38 governorships and massive majorities in both houses.

    And the GOP could even frame it in terms of "for the good of the country" and turn the page.


    Thus, there's no doubt in my mind who would have been REMOVED. Now - the confusion may come with the term impeach. After all, Clinton WAS impeached, he just wasn't removed. Yeah, I could see the GOP being that stupid again, I most certainly could, in regards to Hillary.
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  4. #16
    BamaNation Hall of Fame seebell's Avatar
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    Re: Hypothetical: Who would have been impeached first? Hill or Don?

    Hillary would have been impeached first. If the republicans controlled the House they would have dredged up the kitchen sink and held hearings ad nauseum. She would have been impeached but possibly not convicted.

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    BamaNation Hall of Fame selmaborntidefan's Avatar
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    Re: Hypothetical: Who would have been impeached first? Hill or Don?

    Quote Originally Posted by seebell View Post
    Hillary would have been impeached first. If the republicans controlled the House they would have dredged up the kitchen sink and held hearings ad nauseum. She would have been impeached but possibly not convicted.
    I doubt this. I have no doubt they would have dredged up issue after non-issue because that's what folks in DC tend to do. I CAN see it as a fallout from the FBI investigation, yes (or - as always - something we don't know at this time). Conviction would not have happened anyway since you need several Democrats to support it. (Nor am I saying she should have as I'm not).

    I just think Trump is unpopular enough IN HIS OWN party from day one to make that scenario much more likely.
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  6. #18
    BamaNation Hall of Fame seebell's Avatar
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    Re: Hypothetical: Who would have been impeached first? Hill or Don?

    It only takes a simple majority in the House for impeachment to go forward. An impeachment is like an indictment. A simple majority to go forward. The actual impeachment trial is conducted by the Senate and requires 2/3 vote for conviction. I think that there would have been an excellent chance that Hillary would have been impeached but not convicted.

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    BamaNation Hall of Fame selmaborntidefan's Avatar
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    Re: Hypothetical: Who would have been impeached first? Hill or Don?

    Quote Originally Posted by seebell View Post
    It only takes a simple majority in the House for impeachment to go forward. An impeachment is like an indictment. A simple majority to go forward. The actual impeachment trial is conducted by the Senate and requires 2/3 vote for conviction. I think that there would have been an excellent chance that Hillary would have been impeached but not convicted.
    I know this, and I seriously doubt it would have been done.

    As I stated earlier - most folks don't know Clinton WAS impeached because they think impeachment equals removal.

    He and Andrew Johnson were - Nixon, who most folks think was....was NOT.
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  8. #20
    BamaNation Hall of Fame seebell's Avatar
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    Re: Hypothetical: Who would have been impeached first? Hill or Don?

    Quote Originally Posted by selmaborntidefan View Post
    I know this, and I seriously doubt it would have been done.

    As I stated earlier - most folks don't know Clinton WAS impeached because they think impeachment equals removal.

    He and Andrew Johnson were - Nixon, who most folks think was....was NOT.
    Guess what Selma? We don't agree. Surprise. Surprise.

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