State of the Union? (SEC)

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Redwood Forrest

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For a conference which is (supposedly) sliding back into mediocrity the SEC just recruited 6 of the top 12 in the nation.

Were the past two years on the field an anomaly with HC fails and then next year the new systems to learn or have the others just hired better coaches than the SEC?

If this year is the third consecutive year of mediocrity then I guess it is true, but I think we rebound as a conference this time around. What are your thoughts?
 

B1GTide

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I have said it before - my opinion is that the SEC downturn is a result of the coaching churn. Replacing coaches is not a science. There is a ton of guess work involved. So, add in the fact that you have Nick Saban in the SEC and you see coaches who would otherwise have won national championships discarded.

Imagine the SEC without Saban. You have a lot more head coaches with long tenures still in place, and a few more programs with recent national championships on their resumes to help in recruiting.

But who do you blame? The school ADs for wanting to beat Saban? Heck, why wouldn't they want to beat Saban?

The reality - unless some of these new hires turn out to be better than they have looked to date, the SEC may be in for a serious down turn. Eventually the recruits will sign elsewhere. They want to win. Then what do you have? Schools with weak coaches and players - see the B1G just 3 years ago. One dominant team ruling the roost and everyone else desperate for a change.

But as long as Alabama remains that team on top, do you really care? It is easier to make it to the playoffs in a weak conference than in a strong one. Your brand will get you in the playoffs as long as you win the SEC with fewer than 2 losses. This is just how you want it, even if you don't realize it.
 

CrimsonProf

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I have said it before - my opinion is that the SEC downturn is a result of the coaching churn. Replacing coaches is not a science. There is a ton of guess work involved. So, add in the fact that you have Nick Saban in the SEC and you see coaches who would otherwise have won national championships discarded.

Imagine the SEC without Saban. You have a lot more head coaches with long tenures still in place, and a few more programs with recent national championships on their resumes to help in recruiting.

But who do you blame? The school ADs for wanting to beat Saban? Heck, why wouldn't they want to beat Saban?

The reality - unless some of these new hires turn out to be better than they have looked to date, the SEC may be in for a serious down turn. Eventually the recruits will sign elsewhere. They want to win. Then what do you have? Schools with weak coaches and players - see the B1G just 3 years ago. One dominant team ruling the roost and everyone else desperate for a change.

But as long as Alabama remains that team on top, do you really care? It is easier to make it to the playoffs in a weak conference than in a strong one. Your brand will get you in the playoffs as long as you win the SEC with fewer than 2 losses. This is just how you want it, even if you don't realize it.
I'm just not sure how true that is. It can certainly happen, but given the depth of talent in the region, a lot of it is always going to stay close to home.
 

B1GTide

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I'm just not sure how true that is. It can certainly happen, but given the depth of talent in the region, a lot of it is always going to stay close to home.
Yeah, but there are a lot of teams in the south not in the SEC. Slip for a while and watch those recruits go elsewhere. How was Alabama recruiting before Saban arrived?
 

gamersfuel

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depends on how the QB play turns out. A lot of young QB's last season and some new QB's next season. Eason, Hurts, Bentley, Fitz, Patterson, just to name a few young QBs who could be the difference in how the league looks.
 

selmaborntidefan

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I have said it before - my opinion is that the SEC downturn is a result of the coaching churn. Replacing coaches is not a science. There is a ton of guess work involved. So, add in the fact that you have Nick Saban in the SEC and you see coaches who would otherwise have won national championships discarded.
I'd rephrase your last statement to, "you see coaches WHO HAVE WON national championships discarded" - like Chizik and Miles, in particular...and Malzahn came within 12 seconds and probably peaked too soon.

Imagine the SEC without Saban. You have a lot more head coaches with long tenures still in place, and a few more programs with recent national championships on their resumes to help in recruiting.
This is where we get more similarities between now and Coach Bryant's day. I'm certainly not trying to knock his opposition but go back and tell me who exactly was long-term competitive with Alabama in the 1970s? From 1971-1979, the only SEC title Alabama did not win was the rebuilding year of 1976.

Who was our competition?

1971 - Auburn and UGA had one SEC loss each but....we played seven to their six and beat Auburn
1972 - Auburn and Tennessee were basically it...and our win over the Vols that year is an all-time classic (if you don't know - we trailed 10-3 with 2:38 left and got the ball at their 48 then scored in three plays. Tied at ten. On the next possession, Condredge Holloway fumbled at his own 17 and we recovered....and punched it in with about a minute left.....14 points in less than 2 minutes)
1973 - LSU and Alabama were the only two teams with a winning record in conference. And this is why a lot of folks put us in the Nebraska category of 'regional power' - we only played two decent teams other than the Irish - Tennessee and LSU and won. But the SEC as a whole was not very good at all.
1974 - no real competition as both Auburn and UGA finished two games behind; to be fair, we DID have to beat Auburn H2H to win it but that was it.
1975 - here's insane for you.....Ole Miss went 6-5 but if they had beaten us head to head, they would have won the SEC with a 7-4 record while we sat home and howled at 9-2; this was a strong year for the conference, with UF and UGA in the running as well
1977 - Kentucky was on probation and because we played seven SEC games to their six, we won it alone.
1978 - UGA had a tie that cost them a tie for the SEC;

And you have to remember that Florida had not yet come of age back then. Ole Miss suffered the backlash fallout from their refusal to recruit black athletes, Shug Jordan retired at Auburn, and Tennessee fired Bill Battle to rebuild. Neither UK nor Vandy was ever a power...including Alabama that's SEVEN teams in the SEC accounted for. The only real competition came from Auburn when Jordan was there, LSU, and Georgia.

Hmmm.....LSU, Georgia, and Alabama were the only three teams to have the same coach in 1979 they had in 1971 (and LSU fired Cholly Mac anyway at the end of that year). And besides, Vince Dooley owes his entire career to the fallout from the alleged game fix scandal in 1962. When Alabama and Georgia wound up only playing each other once in awhile, Dooley got to stay long enough to make the Hall of Fame. From 1966-1983, we only played UGA four times in those eighteen seasons, going 3-1, and Dooley's record in the SEC prior to his 1980 theft of Herschel Walker was 118-56-6 (.672).

In fact, consider this comparison:

Vince Dooley (1964-1979) - won or shared 3 SEC titles, three seasons of .500 or below, .672
Mark Richt (2001-2015) - won 2 SEC titles, 6 division titles, one season of .500 or below, .740

Keep in mind that Richt won his during a time when one team in his own division and THREE in the other won national championships. (That - to me - offsets the comeback of "but Richt got to add cupcakes to the schedule" argument).

Just take the names off of those two and which one would you think would be the Hall of Famer and which one would have been fired? Even with his dominant teams of 1980-83, Dooley's winning pct was .694, not even close to consideration.

My point is not to pick on Dooley (seriously) as much as it is to note (in agreement with you) how much things have changed and that the SEC of the 1970s was NOT the SEC of 2006-2012. Keep in mind that Jim Donnan, who was fired to hire Richt, had a better winning pct than Dooley pre-Herschel.

But who do you blame? The school ADs for wanting to beat Saban? Heck, why wouldn't they want to beat Saban?
Maybe the fans for unrealistic expectations. I think what happened is that when we were on probation teams lined up to kick us hard for our beating them in the past. Miss State beat us 4 out of 5, Tennessee owned us for a solid decade, LSU took their shots at us, and we even managed to lose to Kentucky for the first time since 1922. Probation wasn't enough for Arky, who needed officiating help to beat us three different times despite their advantages.

And then Coach Saban flew in on the jet - and it started with "he's overrated" and "he's leaving soon" and progressed to "he's buying players" which turned into "he's going to Texas" and has now gone to the insane notion that "Bama owns the refs."

Mississippi State - I say this as a former resident of the Bulldog fan area - I don't think they REALLY care. Honestly. I think they WANT to beat Saban but they would be happy with Mullen going to a BIG bowl game (Gator or above) about every three years, beat Ole Miss 3 out of 4 years at a minimum, and win 8-10 games - beat who you're supposed to like the cupcakes, Vandy and UK, and pull off the once a year upset. THEY will always be happy with that which is why I don't see them canning Mullen as long as he can do that.

Vandy and UK don't really care, either, and I don't think S Carolina does, either.

But the rest of them for sure want us hanging on their wall as a trophy. If one team would take a long-term solution to the problem, they'd hire a fresh young coach to build the program for five years from now when Saban is 70. The end IS coming, folks, as far as his tenure here - it's only a question of when.

The reality - unless some of these new hires turn out to be better than they have looked to date, the SEC may be in for a serious down turn. Eventually the recruits will sign elsewhere. They want to win. Then what do you have? Schools with weak coaches and players - see the B1G just 3 years ago. One dominant team ruling the roost and everyone else desperate for a change.
I cannot disagree with anything here at all.

But as long as Alabama remains that team on top, do you really care? It is easier to make it to the playoffs in a weak conference than in a strong one. Your brand will get you in the playoffs as long as you win the SEC with fewer than 2 losses. This is just how you want it, even if you don't realize it.
True with one exception - season ticket holders who actually want games that aren't over at halftime. Other than that I agree with ya.

RTR
 

selmaborntidefan

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Yeah, but there are a lot of teams in the south not in the SEC. Slip for a while and watch those recruits go elsewhere. How was Alabama recruiting before Saban arrived?

Note that Mike Price got a late start and then wasn't here in 2003 AND we were EARLY in a crippling probation

Well let's see our Rivals rankings:

2003 - 52nd (LSU, led by some strange guy, was #1)
2004 - 23rd (LSU was #2)
2005 - 18 (USC was number one for the 2nd straight year)
2006 - 13 (yet Auburn beat us in recruiting YET AGAIN)
2007 - 11 (Saban had less than a month so this is actually VERY good)


Shula recruited the 04-06 classes, so he did improve.

Of course, he wasn't much of an in game coach was the other problem. The only year when he's had a full year that we did NOT finish first was 2010, when we finished fifth.....right behind Auburn.
 

BamaInMo1

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Add to all this, there were some young and inexperienced QBs and players at other skill positions that didn't help.
On all of the other programs wanting to beat BAMA and CNS: sure, as a coach/program you'd love to do this, but the problem for most of these teams is they put all of their eggs in the Beat BAMA basket and when they fall short they "tank" the rest of their season.
Should you try to beat Bama and CNS? Certainly. But, treat it as just another game and don't treat it as your end all be all to have a great season. Otherwise it's not gonna get any better for the other SEC programs and the coaching "wheel of misfortune" will continue to spin.
I want this conference to be strong so it REALLY means something to win the SEC and the playoffs are a cake walk because of the SEC being head and shoulders above the rest.
I'm not one of these who chants SEC and all that but a stronger conference makes for better prep for the playoffs.
 

JDCrimson

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To me at think the downturn has revolved around most all the conference gravitating to the spread offense which has translated into some bad football being played throughout the conference especially on defense.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G870A using Tapatalk
 

81usaf92

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The reason the SEC is down is because each school keeps changing coaches. The main reasons they are changing is to 1) have a new flavor for recruits and 2) they are trying to plan for CNS retiring. There is no consistency.

As far as moving forward... I think this is the year that BOTH LSU and Auburn should be up to legitimately challenging Bama for the title. I think if Auburn's qb situation is solved then they have a great shot at us with the game being at Jerkin Hair. LSU's problem is that they have 3 coordinators running the program. I don't know if I'm as confident as I am about Auburn.

UGA should be the favorite in the East, and I think both UT and UF take a slide backwards. I could actually see USCe being the #2 team.

As for us ... We have a pretty difficult schedule. FSU might actually be favored in Atlanta over us, and I think we best come out fast against them. LSU and Auburn will be a handful, but I think maybe the scariest game could be MSU. For whatever reason we have a hard time down in StarkVegas, and that qb is only going to get better. Repeating as SEC champs and a play off representative is probably more difficult than the last 3 years.
 

Bamabuzzard

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Since "coaching" has already been discussed regarding the downturn of the conference. I'll go with a different slant. The quality of quarterback play in the conference has taken a big step backwards compared to just a few years ago. Especially this season, I watched some bad offense this season from the SEC and a lot of that was due to the quarterback position was severely lacking. It wasn't that long ago we had some very good quarterback play across the conference. Manziel (A&M), McCarron (Bama), Nick Marshall (Auburn), Aaron Murray (Georgia), James Franklin (Missouri), Bo Wallace (Ole Miss), Tyler Wilson (Arkansas) and Zach Mettenberger (LSU) were behind center of their respective teams in 2013. That's a lot of above average QB play for one conference.
 

B1GTide

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Since "coaching" has already been discussed regarding the downturn of the conference. I'll go with a different slant. The quality of quarterback play in the conference has taken a big step backwards compared to just a few years ago. Especially this season, I watched some bad offense this season from the SEC and a lot of that was due to the quarterback position was severely lacking. It wasn't that long ago we had some very good quarterback play across the conference. Manziel (A&M), McCarron (Bama), Nick Marshall (Auburn), Aaron Murray (Georgia), James Franklin (Missouri), Bo Wallace (Ole Miss), Tyler Wilson (Arkansas) and Zach Mettenberger (LSU) were behind center of their respective teams in 2013. That's a lot of above average QB play for one conference.
That is fair if you are just looking at last year, but the SEC has had several years in the last 15 in which the league had one a few good QBs and was still the best conference in college football. Defense and dominant play at the LOS defined the SEC for more than a decade. It allowed the SEC to dominate the sport - not QB play.
 

RTR91

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Since "coaching" has already been discussed regarding the downturn of the conference. I'll go with a different slant. The quality of quarterback play in the conference has taken a big step backwards compared to just a few years ago. Especially this season, I watched some bad offense this season from the SEC and a lot of that was due to the quarterback position was severely lacking. It wasn't that long ago we had some very good quarterback play across the conference.
Let's look at the experience level of the QBs you mention compared to the starter for the school this year.

Manziel (A&M)
Redshirt sophomore Heisman Trophy winner in second year as a starter compared to an Oklahoma senior transfer with 56 more total pass attempts in his three years in Norman than Manziel had as a freshman (490 to 434).

McCarron (Bama)
Fifth year senior in third year of starting compared to a true freshman.

Nick Marshall (Auburn)
Third year college player in second year as QB compared to redshirt sophomore in second year starting.

Aaron Murray (Georgia)
Fifth year senior in fourth year of starting compared to a true freshman.

James Franklin (Missouri)
Three year starter in senior year compared to a true sophomore.

Bo Wallace (Ole Miss)
Second year starting at Ole Miss after a year in JUCO (2014 was his biggest year) compared to Chad Kelly for 9 games in Senior year.

Tyler Wilson (Arkansas)
Wilson was already gone for the 2013 season. Brandon Allen was in his redshirt sophomore year, so he wasn't that great (3-9 season after all). His younger brother Austin wasn't all that bad this year considering what he had to work with. Maybe that's more on Dan Enos, though.

Zach Mettenberger (LSU)
Fifth year senior in third year at LSU (second year starting) compared to B1G junior transfer with only 13 games of experience.



Ole Miss would be the biggest exception here if Kelly didn't get injured. But the overall talent on that team took a dip this year, primarily due to very weak OL play.

How much is the above average QB play in 2012 and 2013 because of the talent or the experience level of the QBs in their respective systems?
 

Bamabuzzard

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That is fair if you are just looking at last year, but the SEC has had several years in the last 15 in which the league had one a few good QBs and was still the best conference in college football. Defense and dominant play at the LOS defined the SEC for more than a decade. It allowed the SEC to dominate the sport - not QB play.
I agree, but in a decade the game has changed. Dominant defenses are now more susceptible to getting worn down and outlasted by offenses. At halftime of the championship game Dabo knew exactly how many plays they had run (45) and basically said "We've got them where we want them." The goal for them was to get our defense past 90 plays and they felt like they could win. Ultimately that is exactly what happened. We couldn't stay on the field because of a lack of passing game. The quarterback plays a much bigger role in success (championship success) than it did a decade ago.
 

RTR91

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I agree, but in a decade the game has changed. Dominant defenses are now more susceptible to getting worn down and outlasted by offenses. At halftime of the championship game Dabo knew exactly how many plays they had run (45) and basically said "We've got them where we want them." The goal for them was to get our defense past 90 plays and they felt like they could win. Ultimately that is exactly what happened. We couldn't stay on the field because of a lack of passing game. The quarterback plays a much bigger role in success (championship success) than it did a decade ago.
Yet, people are upset because Sark didn't run the ball more in the second half to milk the clock, which has nothing to do with the QB.
 

Bamabuzzard

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Let's look at the experience level of the QBs you mention compared to the starter for the school this year.



Redshirt sophomore Heisman Trophy winner in second year as a starter compared to an Oklahoma senior transfer with 56 more total pass attempts in his three years in Norman than Manziel had as a freshman (490 to 434).



Fifth year senior in third year of starting compared to a true freshman.



Third year college player in second year as QB compared to redshirt sophomore in second year starting.



Fifth year senior in fourth year of starting compared to a true freshman.



Three year starter in senior year compared to a true sophomore.



Second year starting at Ole Miss after a year in JUCO (2014 was his biggest year) compared to Chad Kelly for 9 games in Senior year.



Wilson was already gone for the 2013 season. Brandon Allen was in his redshirt sophomore year, so he wasn't that great (3-9 season after all). His younger brother Austin wasn't all that bad this year considering what he had to work with. Maybe that's more on Dan Enos, though.



Fifth year senior in third year at LSU (second year starting) compared to B1G junior transfer with only 13 games of experience.



Ole Miss would be the biggest exception here if Kelly didn't get injured. But the overall talent on that team took a dip this year, primarily due to very weak OL play.

How much is the above average QB play in 2012 and 2013 because of the talent or the experience level of the QBs in their respective systems?


I didn't say anything about it was because of talent. I simply stated the level of quarterback play took a hit compared to previous years. Whether it was due to lack of experience, lack of talent or a little bit of both. Regardless, the quarterback play was subpar across the conference.
 

B1GTide

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I didn't say anything about it was because of talent. I simply stated the level of quarterback play took a hit compared to previous years. Whether it was due to lack of experience, lack of talent or a little bit of both. Regardless, the quarterback play was subpar across the conference.
This could also be a chicken/egg thing. Lots of new QBs, lots of new coaches. Which was the greater problem? Could all of the new coaches have impacted QB play? Good discussion.
 

Bamabuzzard

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Yet, people are upset because Sark didn't run the ball more in the second half to milk the clock, which has nothing to do with the QB.
I guess "the people" didn't see that it had gotten to the point where Boulware (#10) was calling out what play we were going to run and moving Clemson's defensive players to the spot it was going to be run. The notion that running one more running play (or even three more, four more etc) in the latter parts of the 3rd quarter compared to a passing play would have exhausted that one second left on the clock and we would have won is flawed logic.
 

RTR91

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I didn't say anything about it was because of talent. I simply stated the level of quarterback play took a hit compared to previous years. Whether it was due to lack of experience, lack of talent or a little bit of both. Regardless, the quarterback play was subpar across the conference.
Didn't say you said it was because of a lack of talent. I was just posing a question as to why the difference between the two years. Does make a pretty significant difference when you're talking about at least 6 returning starters in one year compared to five guys starting for the team for the first time.
 

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