News Article: North Korea launches 4 more missiles; 3 land in Japanese waters

Bamaro

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I'm guessing that we will just have to learn to live with the knowledge that NK will soon be able to hit the continental US with nuclear tipped ICBMs. No one has stopped them in the past and I seriously doubt either China or Trump will do anything now. China doesn't seem to care and Trump is busy with other "more important:rolleyes:" matters, not that he has good options.
 

2003TIDE

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I truly hope not, but successive administrations have kicked the can down the road, deciding not to decide, and here we are.
Best case scenario, the US somehow manages to preemptively destroy all the NK offensive weapons. China and Russian sit on the sideline and watch it happen. Then, you have the worst humanitarian crisis in history. Worst case scenario you can't destroy all their weapons as fast as needed. Russian and China get involved. NK manages to destroy Seoul and the 11th ranked world economy and we have WWIII.

Neither best case or worst case is good. There are a huge range of scenarios between the best case and worst case that aren't good. I don't blame past administrations for making those decisions. The best and only option IMO would be for China to do something(which is what they all hoped for while kicking the can down the road.)
 
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uafanataum

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Does anyone think if say, the top 30 officials in NK died on the same day we may be able to use the chaos to our advantage?
 

Tidewater

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I don't blame past administrations for making those decisions. The best and only option IMO would be for China to do something(which is what they all hoped for while kicking the can down the road.)
I don't blame past administrations ether, except that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. It is easy to tear down a sanctions regime. It is extremely difficult to re-erect one. It is also extraordinarily difficult to enforce a sanctions regime.
 

2003TIDE

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I don't blame past administrations ether, except that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. It is easy to tear down a sanctions regime. It is extremely difficult to re-erect one. It is also extraordinarily difficult to enforce a sanctions regime.
Especially financial sanctions on a regime that just prints counterfeit USD. I read an interesting blurb on NK USD supernotes. We detected them up until about 2010 then haven't found anymore. So either A) they stopped or B) they have gotten so good we can't detect it. Personally I think it is B. There is no telling how much of the USD in the world is NK counterfeit.
 
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Bamaro

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I see no viable way to solve this militarily. In this case diplomacy may be the only option. The war ended with a truce. I dont think a permanent peace treaty was ever signed. Sit down with the armistice parties, work out a peace contingent on NK getting rid of nukes and ICBMs, our side agree not to invade or attack. Little Kim has no real desire to attack the US with nukes. The result would be NKs total devastation. He sees them primarily as a defensive deterrent. He just wants to keep his country, even as crappy as it is.
We need to get over both NK and Cuba being what they are.
 

81usaf92

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I see no viable way to solve this militarily. .
We would destroy them militarily, and they wont have support from the Chinese this time. So militarily there is no question there is a solution, but no one wants to nation build or leave some place in ruins. We just cant find it in our hearts to stop the nonsense strategy of "winning hearts and minds"

The war ended with a truce. .
it technically has never ended.

Sit down with the armistice parties, work out a peace contingent on NK getting rid of nukes and ICBMs, our side agree not to invade or attack. Little Kim has no real desire to attack the US with nukes..
It wont happen. Il did this charade because he wanted food and fuel, Un does it because he actually believes the US to be weaker than NK. If Un isn't assassinated or dies soon then its just going to continue to escalate, and we are going to continue to apply pressure. Eventually something is going to give. What gives non of us knows

.
We need to get over both NK and Cuba being what they are.
Weve left Cuba alone for about 60 years now. The only engagement we've had since has been in Grenada, and that was somewhat justified. Gitmo is US territory so no that doesn't count.

NK threatens two of our biggest Allies and trade partners (Japan and SK). So if you think it isn't a real concern about their safety and welfare then I suppose you have no problem of abandoning our NATO partners in Europe in the face of Russian aggression as well.
 

Bamaro

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We would destroy them militarily, and they wont have support from the Chinese this time. So militarily there is no question there is a solution, but no one wants to nation build or leave some place in ruins. We just cant find it in our hearts to stop the nonsense strategy of "winning hearts and minds"



it technically has never ended.



It wont happen. Il did this charade because he wanted food and fuel, Un does it because he actually believes the US to be weaker than NK. If Un isn't assassinated or dies soon then its just going to continue to escalate, and we are going to continue to apply pressure. Eventually something is going to give. What gives non of us knows



Weve left Cuba alone for about 60 years now. The only engagement we've had since has been in Grenada, and that was somewhat justified. Gitmo is US territory so no that doesn't count.

NK threatens two of our biggest Allies and trade partners (Japan and SK). So if you think it isn't a real concern about their safety and welfare then I suppose you have no problem of abandoning our NATO partners in Europe in the face of Russian aggression as well.
Sure we could destroy them militarily but at a huge loss of lives and property in the south so that option is not viable.

We haven't left Cuba alone. We continue to impose useless sanctions. Cuba is no military threat to the US at this time so lets normalize relations.
 

81usaf92

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Sure we could destroy them militarily but at a huge loss of lives and property in the south so that option is not viable.

.
Part of the problem, but sometimes war is inevitable. I think a continuation of the fighting would hinge more on the threat to Japan and SK. If Short Round doesn't stop shooting missiles in Japanese waters then Military action is probably necessary.

We haven't left Cuba alone. We continue to impose useless sanctions. Cuba is no military threat to the US at this time so lets normalize relations.
Is that more of our problem or their problem? Castro in the 50's got with the nationalist movement of turning back the Platt Amendment, and has continued the policy of isolationism ever since. Fidel could have came to the table in the 90's when Clinton was in power just like the Soviets did, but his pride wouldn't allow it due to his whole revolution revolving around the expulsion of the Batista regime and the Platt Amendment. Point is Raoul can get with the 21st century and come to the table, or he can die under the sanctions he refuses to negotiate from a war that ended nearly 30 years ago. If Cuba wants to be treated like an adult then let them ask like one.
 

Tidewater

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Brian Wang, "US Mini-nukes and an analysis of a second Korean war"
Interesting that the US seem to be considering developing very low-yield nuclear weapons (down to a yield of 0.3 kilotons) and a Long Range Stand Off (LRSO) platform to deliver them, replacing the aging Air Launched Cruise Missiles (ALCMs).

Also interesting is Wang's analysis of NKPA strategy for artillery.
Counter-value (shooting at civilians as fast as you can): 30,000 killed (!) of which ~800 foreigners and of which ~605 Chinese nationals, which would probably not endear NK to the Chinese.
Counter-force (shooting at South Korean and US artillery/troops as fast as you can): ~3,000 SK & US casualties, mainly soldiers.

Firing using a counter-force strategy would mean that NKPA arty would survive longer, but counter-value would mean 3,000 casualties before SKs get into their bomb shelters, then casualties would drop significantly.

Two other interesting factors: NKPA ammo stocks are limited, NKPA would lose ~1% of their arty/hour; within 1 week, very few NKPA arty platforms capable of reaching Seoul would still be operational. NKPA would run out of ammo/fuel within two weeks, (another study indicates two months). In other words, fighting would probably be intense, but short.
 

TIDE-HSV

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Brian Wang, "US Mini-nukes and an analysis of a second Korean war"
Interesting that the US seem to be considering developing very low-yield nuclear weapons (down to a yield of 0.3 kilotons) and a Long Range Stand Off (LRSO) platform to deliver them, replacing the aging Air Launched Cruise Missiles (ALCMs).

Also interesting is Wang's analysis of NKPA strategy for artillery.
Counter-value (shooting at civilians as fast as you can): 30,000 killed (!) of which ~800 foreigners and of which ~605 Chinese nationals, which would probably not endear NK to the Chinese.
Counter-force (shooting at South Korean and US artillery/troops as fast as you can): ~3,000 SK & US casualties, mainly soldiers.

Firing using a counter-force strategy would mean that NKPA arty would survive longer, but counter-value would mean 3,000 casualties before SKs get into their bomb shelters, then casualties would drop significantly.

Two other interesting factors: NKPA ammo stocks are limited, NKPA would lose ~1% of their arty/hour; within 1 week, very few NKPA arty platforms capable of reaching Seoul would still be operational. NKPA would run out of ammo/fuel within two weeks, (another study indicates two months). In other words, fighting would probably be intense, but short.
The problem then is what do we (and China) have on our hands? People (including Herr President) criticize China for supporting NK to some degree. I don't. I understand their fear...
 

TIDE-HSV

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The problem then is what do we (and China) have on our hands? People (including Herr President) criticize China for supporting NK to some degree. I don't. I understand their fear...
I had to chuckle because of something I read yesterday. After Pat Buchanan's angry speech to the Republican Convention. Molly Ivins commented that it probably sounded better in the original German... :D
 

Tidewater

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The problem then is what do we (and China) have on our hands? People (including Herr President) criticize China for supporting NK to some degree. I don't. I understand their fear...
I don't know. If I were advising China, I recommend they consider either (a) letting NK go (would a re-unified Korean peninsula really be a bad thing for China? They already do a lot of business with South Korea and a re-unified peninsula might be an effective counterbalance to a resurgent remilitarizing Japan.) or (b) support international efforts (as long as they really are truly international efforts) to rein in Kim's craziness. I don't know if the status quo (a very real possibility of a very destructive war next door) is in China's best interests.
 
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Tidewater

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They are being held at gun point at the moment. I think HSV was alluding to what would happen once the NK military fell.
Yes, I think in the chaos that would ensue once the shooting war restarted, a number of North Koreans might think, "This is my chance to get the heck out of here," and rush the Yalu.
 

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