Hey everyone....
I had no intention to post again in this thread. But as I was clearing out my Inbox just now, I ran across some stat-driven commentary forecasting how Florida might do this coming season and thought it might be of interest to those who enjoy stats.
I do agree with previous comments that losing our starting QB for McElwain's first two seasons has not helped the offense. Hopefully this year we will avoid that scenario (fingers crossed)!
===========
Everybody starts the year undefeated. But the cruel reality of college football is that only a handful of those teams have a legitimate chance of winning the 2017 College Football Playoff.
Over the next few months, we will be reviewing the clubs that do and don't fall into that category. Let's begin by looking at some sleeper programs that have a solid shot at CFP title contention if the ball bounces the right way.
The first team on this list is the Florida Gators.
Coach Jim McElwain's team earned a berth in the 2016 SEC championship game on the strength of its defense. This formula could work again in 2017 despite some significant defensive personnel losses, and if that is combined with any improvement on offense, it could result in a potential CFP title shot for the Gators.
Strong recruiting classes
Florida finished the 2017 recruiting season with a flourish that led to a No. 13 ranking in
ESPN's recruiting grades, but that is only the latest in a string of strong showings in this area. Over the past five years, the Gators rank in the top 10 nationally in five-star recruits (five), four-star recruits (72) and ESPN 300 recruits (52). There are four SEC teams in front of the Gators on those lists, but Georgia is the only SEC East club to make that claim, so Florida could arguably have the best talent in that division.
Front-seven losses won't sting as much as you think
The losses of Jarrad Davis and Joey Ivie to graduation were compounded when Caleb Brantley and Alex Anzalone declared early for the 2017 NFL draft.
According to Stats LLC, this quartet accounted for 197 impact plays, a wide-ranging metric that includes any type of pass-rush impact (sack, pressure, etc.), tackles for loss and passes defensed.
As impressive as that total is, it's worth noting that these impact plays were generated on 1,599 combined snaps. That means this foursome racked up an impact play on 12.3 percent of their snaps.
Now let's compare that figure to the impact percentage of the six players who are slated to take over as the main cogs in Florida's front seven next season.
Taven Bryan,
Keivonnis Davis,
Cece Jefferson,
Jachai Polite,
Jordan Sherit and
Jabari Zuniga combined for 232 impact plays on 1,827 snaps last season. That equates to a 12.7 percent mark and suggests that the Gators' front-seven defensive production will not decrease.
This group also has a wild card in
Antonneous Clayton, who was the second-highest rated defensive end in the 2016 recruiting class. Clayton tallied a 22.9 percent impact play total that ranked second on the team last season. If he is able to hit anywhere close to that bar on a larger snap volume than the 48 snaps he had last season, the Gators may see a significant production increase in their defensive front seven.
Same deal with the secondary: The DBs can be replaced
Florida's secondary is in a similar situation, as Teez Tabor and Quincy Wilson both declared early for the 2017 NFL draft.
As is the case with the front seven, the secondary has highly talented players waiting in the wings.
Duke Dawson will take over one of the starting cornerback spots. He had the third-lowest completion percentage allowed among the 10 Florida defenders with 10 or more targets last season (34.4 percent, according to Stats LLC) and the highest passes-defensed percentage among Gators defenders with 20 or more targets (25.0).
Chauncey Gardner ranked 18th on the team in defensive snaps (275), but he sure made an impact on those snaps. Gardner racked up six passes defensed and three interceptions on only 11 targets, which is the type of performance that helped him win the MVP award in the 2017 Outback Bowl. Gardner does need to step his coverage game up, as his 15.8 yards per attempt allowed was by far the highest total among Gators defenders with 10 or more targets. But as long as that area improves, Gardner's ball-hawking ability will make him a valuable player wherever Florida decides to utilize him.
Powerful special teams
Florida ranked 11th among Power 5 teams and second in the SEC in ESPN Stats & Information's special-teams expected points added (STEPA) metric that measures the overall impact of special-teams performance. This is due in part to ESPN All-SEC punter
Johnny Townsend setting the Florida record for highest gross punting average last season (47.9). Add in
Antonio Callaway, whose 435 punt return yards in 2015 were second-highest in team history, and Florida should again field one of the best special-teams platoons in college football.
Improved rushing attack
The Gators finished at the bottom of the SEC in rush yards per game last season, but there are reasons to believe this part of their offense is trending upward.
A prime factor here is
Jordan Scarlett, who ranked fourth in the conference in yards per rush after first defensive contact among the 23 running backs with 100 or more carries last year (2.6). The main impediment for Scarlett posting even better numbers is that he ranked 21st in that group in rush yards per carry before first defensive contact (2.4).
That latter figure was par for the course for the Florida offense, as the Gators tied for last in the SEC and tied for 59th out of 65 Power 5 teams in rush yards per carry before first defensive contact (1.8).
Improving upon that figure might sound daunting since the Gators must replace two of their starting offensive linemen, but they could get immediate run blocking assistance from Kadeem Telfort and Tedarrell Slaton, two 2017 four-star recruits whose oversized frames should make them a perfect fit in a power rushing offense.
Highly experienced receiving corps
Florida has a question mark at quarterback, but whoever ends up under center will have plenty of veteran pass-catching targets. The Gators bring back all six of their wide receivers and tight ends who had 10 or more receptions last season. Florida also returns a potential home run threat in
Dre Massey, a highly touted 2016 ESPN juco 50 recruit who was lost for the 2016 season after playing only 13 offensive snaps. His ESPN recruiting write-up says Massey is "lightning-fast ... extremely elusive and sudden in the open field." Massey also has big kick return upside and thus could improve the already strong special teams.
Favorable schedule
No SEC schedule can be called truly favorable, but Florida's 2017 slate has many relative advantages. Chief among these is not playing Alabama and having both SEC West games (LSU and Texas A&M) at home in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. The Gators' SEC road slate is also auspicious, as it includes games at Kentucky, Missouri and South Carolina, three teams that combined for a 9-15 conference record last season. Florida will host rivals Tennessee and Florida State and has a season-opening neutral-site game against Michigan, a team that returns only five starters.
Bottom line
The CFP formula for Florida is quite simple. If the Gators win the SEC championship game, they would almost certainly make it into the CFP final four. If they make it to the SEC title game with only one regular-season loss and then fall, they could have a case similar to the 2016 Penn State team that nearly made it into the CFP with two losses. Either scenario may be considered unlikely, but each is also far from impossible and thus places the Gators firmly into the CFP sleeper category.
