USAToday has Florida picked No. 22

Redwood Forrest

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McElwain’s third team at Colorado State exploded, meaning the same sort of leap could be in play for the Gators come September.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ook-college-football-florida-gators/97851138/

Florida has LSU and Georgia does not. I think Georgia wins the East if they can beat Florida. The East should be wide open this year. I am going with Georgia just because of the LSU game. I have Florida in my Top Ten.
 

TideEngineer08

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I would not assume that McElwain's experience and Colorado State means he will duplicate it at Florida. They have won the East the past 2 years largely by being the least sucky team. I don't see them improving much this coming season, so them winning will be based upon what the rest of the division does, and their schedule. As you point out, they have LSU, but also Texas A&M, Michigan and Florida State. I don't see less than 4 losses on that schedule, best case scenario.

That might be good enough to win the East, though, as I don't see a reason for optimism for any other team except maybe Georgia.
 

selmaborntidefan

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McElwain’s third team at Colorado State exploded, meaning the same sort of leap could be in play for the Gators come September.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ook-college-football-florida-gators/97851138/

Florida has LSU and Georgia does not. I think Georgia wins the East if they can beat Florida. The East should be wide open this year. I am going with Georgia just because of the LSU game. I have Florida in my Top Ten.
So then......you have both UGA AND UF in your top ten?

Florida managed to beat LSU on the road last year in a game most folks here kept saying they were trying to avoid because they were skeered.

Georgia's biggest asset is they're returning 17 starters. They were 8-5, but they were three plays away from being 10-2. Of course - to be fair - they were also four plays from being 3-9, too. UGA last year walked that 2011 Auburn tightrope and wound up pretty much the same. Kirby Smart has yet to impress anyone as a head coach - and let's be honest, if Pettway plays for Auburn, the Bulldogs probably lose that game (their sole TD was a pick six early in the second half). Auburn's leading receiver in that game was Georgia's Maurice Smith, who had 34 yards on the pick six while Auburn only passed for 37 yards the entire game.

I'm by no means saying Kirby will not eventually be a good or even possibly great head coach but last year at UGA confirmed my repeatedly stated opinion that an elite SEC program is NOT the place for your FIRST head coaching gig. Name me any above average coach in the SEC since 1970 and it's nearly 100% that the guy was a head coach elsewhere first (the one notable exception I'll grant is Mark Richt....okay, Phil Fulmer). Saban, Meyer, Miles, Spurrier, Dye, Bryant. And I would point out in the cases of Richt, Fulmer, and even Vince Dooley that they were average head coaches at best pushed into the 'above average' realm by a really good 3-4 year stretch where they fielded top five teams. Dooley's entire reputation was made out of the Herschel Walker years, and I'd argue that Fulmer's was made out of the Peyton Manning era and two years when Ron Zook was at Florida, and Richt had the good fortune to arrive at UGA just as Spurrier was leaving.


I say all that to say that UGA has given me no reason and Smart has given me no reason to see them as a top ten team next year. Their biggest asset is that they return 17 starters, most in the SEC. Of course, Tennessee and LSU returned 17 starters as most in the SEC in 2016 - LSU's coach got fired in September and Tennessee's is in line to get canned this year. Most years Alabama returns the fewest or second fewest starters in the SEC but winds up going to the playoff.

ALABAMA RETURNING STARTERS

2017: 11
2016: 11
2015: 12
2014: 12 (MSU led the conference and this was the year they went to #1; but Kentucky brought back just as many and I don't recall them being a top five team)

Thus, the reasoning behind why UGA would be considered good seems to be, "Returns 17 starters from a five-loss team," but I don't know if that's a strong argument. Just looking at Georgia's schedule, Coach Saban could take the team they have RIGHT NOW and go unbeaten through the regular season with them.

I'm hoping for Coach Smart's success, but I won't be surprised if he's the next Gene Chizik, either....a talented DC who cannot serve as head coach.
 

ALA2262

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What have you seen from Florida thus far that would make you put them in your top ten?
I don't see them as a Top ten team. But I see an incredible schedule that could vault them into the Top ten immediately after they win their opener against what will be a grossly overrated Michigan team. And keep them there with just one road game at UK before November. With just two more at Mo and at SC in November. Four conference home games, one neutral site conference game (UGA), and just those three conference road games would be a huge boost to any SEC team.
 
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GrayTide

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So they have FSU at #1 which implies they beat us in the opening game. So in order to play for the NC we would have to win out and get them again in the semis or the finals. I know it is preseason and their prediction is no better than anyone on here.
 

RTR91

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So they have FSU at #1 which implies they beat us in the opening game. So in order to play for the NC we would have to win out and get them again in the semis or the finals. I know it is preseason and their prediction is no better than anyone on here.
Not necessarily. Depends on how they're doing the ranking. Is it "preseason this is how we think the final rankings will look" rankings or "preseason this is where we think each team is at this moment" rankings?
 

ALA2262

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So they have FSU at #1 which implies they beat us in the opening game. So in order to play for the NC we would have to win out and get them again in the semis or the finals. I know it is preseason and their prediction is no better than anyone on here.
I see it as implying they think F$U should be #1 before the season starts. Not after the first week of the season.
 

UntouchableCrew

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I don't see them as a Top ten team. But I see an incredible schedule that could vault them into the Top ten immediately after they win their opener against what will be a grossly overrated Michigan team. And keep them there with just one road game at UK before November. With just two more at Mo and at SC in November. Four conference home games, one neutral site conference game (UGA), and just those three conference road games would be a huge boost to any SEC team.
Michigan murdered Florida in the Cirtus Bowl two years ago. I don't think that opener is a lock at all, Harbaugh has been recruiting much better than McElwain.
 

Redwood Forrest

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So then......you have both UGA AND UF in your top ten?
Yes, just as I have Alabama and LSU in my top 10. Also FSU and Clemson, tOSU and Michigan. This is how they will start and finish. I use a simple 5 year recruiting average and a 4 year on the field result spreadsheet. In 2015 I beat all the magazines and on line sites, including AP and Coaches Poll. in 2016 not so lucky. I finished 7 out of 10. I reckon we all have our good years and bad years. These are the stats and I did them all the way through the bowls and CFP.

1. Alabama ........1.0
2. tOSU .............2.3
3. FSU ...............3.6
4. LSU ...............4.4
5. USC ...............4.9
6. Georgia ..........5.1
7. Florida ...........6.5
8. Auburn ...........6.7
9. Clemson .........7.3
10. Oklahoma ......7.6

Now, I do personally think Michigan is headed for a big drop off this year. My stats ranking is 100% stat and not what I think.
 

B1GTide

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Michigan murdered Florida in the Cirtus Bowl two years ago. I don't think that opener is a lock at all, Harbaugh has been recruiting much better than McElwain.
It won't be a lock, but UM lost their entire defense. We have no idea what they will look like in 2017.
 

RTR91

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SEC East Champions 2015 & 2016, 10-4 and 9-4. 12th rank NATIONAL recruiting class average over past five years. That should be good for at least a top 15 finish.
And they won the SEC East because the rest of the division was hot garbage, not because they were clearly the dominant team.

If you want to use recruiting rankings over the last five years, I guess you're aware they have four teams with a better average over that time frame (LSU, TAMU, UGA, and FSU) while Michigan and Tennessee averaged 14 and 13 respectively, and Michigan ranked 37 in 2015 because Hoke was on the hot seat.
 

Redwood Forrest

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And they won the SEC East because the rest of the division was hot garbage, not because they were clearly the dominant team.

If you want to use recruiting rankings over the last five years, I guess you're aware they have four teams with a better average over that time frame (LSU, TAMU, UGA, and FSU) while Michigan and Tennessee averaged 14 and 13 respectively, and Michigan ranked 37 in 2015 because Hoke was on the hot seat.
Yes, but remember I combine the on field results for past four year with the recruiting and neither TAMU or Tennessee rank in the top 10 cause they faltered on the field. Both were called Dumpster Fires a couple of years ago.
 

RTR91

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Yes, but remember I combine the on field results for past four year with the recruiting and neither TAMU or Tennessee rank in the top 10 cause they faltered on the field. Both were called Dumpster Fires a couple of years ago.
I'm confused by this.

If you're using a 4 year average (2013 to 2016), TAMU's averages 8.25 wins while Tennessee averages 7.5. Florida in that span averages 7.5 wins.

Curious about your formula.
 
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CrimsonForce

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UF shouldn't be anywhere near the top 10 until they prove they have a QB. I would have them ranked near the bottom of the top 25 or outside the top 25 based on what we know right now..
 

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