Preseason, I saw a number of fans who thought this would be a tournament team. However I never thought that was realistic. Based on the talent and makeup of the roster, I expected this to be a rebuilding year with an end result of about .500. Based on my expectations of the season holistically, I'd say we overachieved.
However, I think the season can be divided into two chapters. The non-conference schedule which was a gross underachievement, and the conference schedule which was a gross overachievement.
When I look at the non conference schedule, there's no shame in losing to Oregon and Dayton. Those should have been expected as both teams are strong tournament teams. However, losing to Valpo, Clemson, and Texas are huge disappointments. None of those three teams were even close to making the tournament. We were more talented, and in the case of Texas, we were one of only 11 wins. You win those three, and we are a 22 win team on the bubble with a competitive RPI. Those types of games in the future will be the deciding factor on whether CAJ can fully turn around the team. We have to be able to pull off the 50/50 non-conference games to get the attention of the committee.
As to the conference schedule, we beat tournament teams in Vanderbilt on the road, USCe twice, including once on the road. Plus we hung tight with Kentucky twice. Yes, we lost to Auburn twice, and we ended the regular season losing 3 of our last 4. Still I view the positives to outweigh the negatives. Even after an underwhelming nonconference schedule, we nearly brought ourselves back into the bubble conversation. A few things go differently, and we are dancing. That to me is an overall win.
Next year though, I'll be past the point of being fine with moral victories. I think next year we will finally have the balance of talent we need to be a tournament team. To me, next year will be the first real example of Johnson's coaching ability as it will finally be a team of his construction. I have faith that he can succeed, but I'll find next year to be a huge letdown if we aren't a more relevant conversation piece come the postseason.
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