Alabama opens as 5.5-point favorite over Florida State

Both teams will have a chip on their shoulders and something to prove. Awesome way to start off the season!

I "get" the notion that Alabama lost a lot on defense, but I don't for the life of me get the whole "Florida State is a national championship contender." They lose their best player from a team that is getting far too much credit for beating what turned out to be an overrated Michigan team. They got killed by Louisville.....the same Louisville that got smoked by LSU without Fournette, and even if you want to say "well, bowl games aren't accurate barometers," they also lost to Kentucky. They lost to UNC, who managed to lose to UGA.

OK, they played Clemson close, but so too did Pitt and NC State.

Look, they may win but folks have them going off in the top three. They lost their leading sack guy from the #44 defense in the country.

I just don't think Fisher has that great of a track record yet to give him a pass on adjusting year to year yet. They could win ten games because they have a soft schedule and still lose to both Alabama and Clemson.

selmaborntidefan said:

I "get" the notion that Alabama lost a lot on defense, but I don't for the life of me get the whole "Florida State is a national championship contender." They lose their best player from a team that is getting far too much credit for beating what turned out to be an overrated Michigan team. They got killed by Louisville.....the same Louisville that got smoked by LSU without Fournette, and even if you want to say "well, bowl games aren't accurate barometers," they also lost to Kentucky. They lost to UNC, who managed to lose to UGA.

OK, they played Clemson close, but so too did Pitt and NC State.

Look, they may win but folks have them going off in the top three. They lost their leading sack guy from the #44 defense in the country.

I just don't think Fisher has that great of a track record yet to give him a pass on adjusting year to year yet. They could win ten games because they have a soft schedule and still lose to both Alabama and Clemson.

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Francios and the state of the ACC is the reason and they both are very good reasons for their rankings. Then add in the fact that Fisher has pummeled Mac in recruiting in the state of Florida. They are basically competing more with Alabama for top Florida recruits than Florida. So they are a highly talented team. The game sorta scares me because i truly believe with the ticket prices ( 400 for upper end zone) at they are presently favors more of a FSU majority crowd, and Francois is good enough to beat us. I think it is more essential that we win than them because we have more possible losses than they do. This is easily one of the toughest openers that we have had under CNS.

I'm just hoping for a win

81usaf92 said:

I'm just hoping for a win

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That's all I ever do, never mind the score, just a check mark in the win column.... While I may be greedy, its for the W's, not for the point margin. :biggrin:

No matter how I slice and dice recruiting I wind up with FSU 3rd to 5th average. This has all the makings of a really good game. The point spread seems to reflect the difference in four and five star players. Bama holds a sizeable edge there. Roll Tide.

Redwood Forrest said:

No matter how I slice and dice recruiting I wind up with FSU 3rd to 5th average. This has all the makings of a really good game. The point spread seems to reflect the difference in four and five star players. Bama holds a sizeable edge there. Roll Tide.

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Alabama also holds a sizeable advantage in coaching.

selmaborntidefan said:

Alabama also holds a sizeable advantage in coaching.

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I agree. Take away Winston and we have a good HC, but not a great HC, IMO.

crimsonaudio said:

http://floridastate.247sports.com/B...55-point-favorite-over-Florida-State-51893446

I'll take the win, don't care if it's one point.

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That makes at least two of us! This is just one of those games that you just want to get out of alive. Too many unknowns to be overly confident, IMHO.

Tideflyer said:

That makes at least two of us! This is just one of those games that you just want to get out of alive. Too many unknowns to be overly confident, IMHO.

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This is a fair point.

selmaborntidefan said:

I "get" the notion that Alabama lost a lot on defense, but I don't for the life of me get the whole "Florida State is a national championship contender." They lose their best player from a team that is getting far too much credit for beating what turned out to be an overrated Michigan team. They got killed by Louisville.....the same Louisville that got smoked by LSU without Fournette, and even if you want to say "well, bowl games aren't accurate barometers," they also lost to Kentucky. They lost to UNC, who managed to lose to UGA.

OK, they played Clemson close, but so too did Pitt and NC State.

Look, they may win but folks have them going off in the top three. They lost their leading sack guy from the #44 defense in the country.

I just don't think Fisher has that great of a track record yet to give him a pass on adjusting year to year yet. They could win ten games because they have a soft schedule and still lose to both Alabama and Clemson.

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I hope you are right but Jimbo has been talking about this would be his best team since last year. They have the best running back they have ever recruited coming in next year. Listening to some of the talk about that guy on the recruiting boards when we he was committed to us I got the impression he was the best back any of them have ever seen.

Mystical said:

I hope you are right but Jimbo has been talking about this would be his best team since last year. They have the best running back they have ever recruited coming in next year. Listening to some of the talk about that guy on the recruiting boards when we he was committed to us I got the impression he was the best back any of them have ever seen.

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Easy now. Akers is very good, but Najee is just as good.

And Leonard Fournette pretty much holds the title of best high school back ever seen. Derrick and his records are probably second.

Mystical said:

I hope you are right but Jimbo has been talking about this would be his best team since last year. They have the best running back they have ever recruited coming in next year. Listening to some of the talk about that guy on the recruiting boards when we he was committed to us I got the impression he was the best back any of them have ever seen.

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Well, might well be.

On the flip side, we don't let people run the ball, either. (And nobody can seriously say that the 2011 defense played in 2013 or 2015).

Nick Chubb's stats were padded by one long run. Fournette, one of the best backs I've seen in a long time, nothing.

I'm thinking the last guy who really torched us (off the top of my head) was Zeke Elliott in the Sugar Bowl.

What I'm saying is, "Yes, it COULD happen, they could possibly bring in a back who lights us up enough for the Noles to win." But based on the past nine years, I have no reason to bet against us yet. That day will come but I don't think it has yet arrived.

selmaborntidefan said:

Well, might well be.

On the flip side, we don't let people run the ball, either. (And nobody can seriously say that the 2011 defense played in 2013 or 2015).

Nick Chubb's stats were padded by one long run. Fournette, one of the best backs I've seen in a long time, nothing.

I'm thinking the last guy who really torched us (off the top of my head) was Zeke Elliott in the Sugar Bowl.

What I'm saying is, "Yes, it COULD happen, they could possibly bring in a back who lights us up enough for the Noles to win." But based on the past nine years, I have no reason to bet against us yet. That day will come but I don't think it has yet arrived.

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The big problem is Francios. He will be entering his second year after a pretty darn freshman year. I really don't care what stats you try to justify against the notion, but the mobile qb who can throw on the run is our kryptonite unless we score in the upper 30's. Francios just screams that our offense will be the deciding factor in the game. If you are asking me an early pick I would say 38-35 something. That is not desrespecting our defense that's taking into account the type of player we will be facing. Yes Louisville smashed them, but I blame that more on Petrino finally learning not to take his foot of the gas on a good team. Let's also not forget that FSU got hosed by the refs against Clemson. They were well on their way to beating them, but a horrible flag cost them. But then again the Miami-FSU game was pretty much given to them.

But I don't think you are giving Francios enough credit. I remember every Bama quickly dismisses the mobile qb theory because they point to Dak, Tebow (2009), and any random "mobile" qb that we beat badly in the past, but they also fail to see that all the games against Johnny, Nick Marshall, Watson, and Kelly were eviscerations of our defense. Yeah Kelly's case was more unique out of the 4 because our offense, the refs, and special teams did practically everything wrong throughout the game in 2015, but 2016 he was still a major headache. Even when we won against these guys it was a tooth and nail fight in which all of them did better the second time than the first time facing us. The times we won was because of an explosive offense. Which is why I see the deciding factor against FSU as our offensive production.

There is that possibility that Francios has regressed over the off season, but there is also that possibility that he has improved tremendously as well. If it is the former then we win easily, but if it is the latter then prepare for that high 30's to 35 type ball game. Again I just want us to come home with a win.

I looked at the Point Spread with a little surprise.
I hope the spread is on the money.
I'll take any win, especially over a good team in game #1.

I think this will be one of our toughest openers under Saban, but I think we win. Francios will make a few mistakes early and then settle down to really push our defense for a bit. I think it will be close until mid third quarter and then our running game featuring Jalen + (insert any name) will take over and a late mistake by Francios will seal the deal! Can't wait! RTR

Frankly it's a big line considering how good Florida State is and how much they return. I'll take the Tide, but this might be the best opening weekend game in college football history -- it legit might end up being the National Title Game in September.

Going be an early morning getting to the Mercedes Dome by 9:00 a.m.:wink: And what a shame we'll miss all the other games too. LOL

Its early. I expect the line move by August... We gotta see how Summer workouts and fall camp goes.

We've got reasons to be confident, but so do they.

We've both got 2nd year qbs who could be legit Heisman candidates.

We've both got uncertainty: we're breaking in a new OC/scheme and they're coming off a "down" year and their confidence is in question.

I think the line could have easily been a pick 'em and we probably just got the Nick Saban bump/benefit of the doubt.

It ought to be a great opening weekend game. Good news is a win would be great, but a loss would not be catostrophic.