Alabama opens as 5.5-point favorite over Florida State

BamaMoon said:

We've got reasons to be confident, but so do they.

We've both got 2nd year qbs who could be legit Heisman candidates.

We've both got uncertainty: we're breaking in a new OC/scheme and they're coming off a "down" year and their confidence is in question.

I think the line could have easily been a pick 'em and we probably just got the Nick Saban bump/benefit of the doubt.

It ought to be a great opening weekend game. Good news is a win would be great, but a loss would not be catostrophic.

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JustNeedMe81 said:

Its a win-win game for both teams. Both can still make to playoff with one loss, if they win rest of the game.

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81usaf92 said:

The big problem is Francios. He will be entering his second year after a pretty darn freshman year. I really don't care what stats you try to justify against the notion, but the mobile qb who can throw on the run is our kryptonite unless we score in the upper 30's. Francios just screams that our offense will be the deciding factor in the game. If you are asking me an early pick I would say 38-35 something. That is not desrespecting our defense that's taking into account the type of player we will be facing. Yes Louisville smashed them, but I blame that more on Petrino finally learning not to take his foot of the gas on a good team. Let's also not forget that FSU got hosed by the refs against Clemson. They were well on their way to beating them, but a horrible flag cost them. But then again the Miami-FSU game was pretty much given to them.

But I don't think you are giving Francios enough credit. I remember every Bama quickly dismisses the mobile qb theory because they point to Dak, Tebow (2009), and any random "mobile" qb that we beat badly in the past, but they also fail to see that all the games against Johnny, Nick Marshall, Watson, and Kelly were eviscerations of our defense. Yeah Kelly's case was more unique out of the 4 because our offense, the refs, and special teams did practically everything wrong throughout the game in 2015, but 2016 he was still a major headache. Even when we won against these guys it was a tooth and nail fight in which all of them did better the second time than the first time facing us. The times we won was because of an explosive offense. Which is why I see the deciding factor against FSU as our offensive production.

There is that possibility that Francios has regressed over the off season, but there is also that possibility that he has improved tremendously as well. If it is the former then we win easily, but if it is the latter then prepare for that high 30's to 35 type ball game. Again I just want us to come home with a win.

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selmaborntidefan said:

I guess here's my deal (because I think we agree here). What does every pundit try to say to line up their "let's pick against Alabama" stuff?

Notice the difference in these two statements:

1) "Nick Saban/Alabama has trouble with mobile quarterbacks who can throw" (not exactly true)
2) "To beat Alabama, you need a mobile quarterback with some passing accuracy" (basically IS true)

They might mean the second but it's the first they say too often and add in descriptive terms like "vulnerable" or "can't handle" or other terms that are more provocative than accurate. The evidence is mixed. And let me reiterate that those games were lost (with two exceptions) because we had turnovers (esp ATM 2012) or the team had a really good defense (2008 Fla, 2011 LSU) and OTHER things besides the sole notion of the mobile QB.

The two exceptions were the 2013 Iron Bowl and the Clemson game in January. And in both of those games our OFFENSE deserves as much (and sometimes more) blame than the defense just as when we turn it over.

FSU may be in the hunt because their conference isn't that good, Clemson just lost their QB, and they have enough talent to survive some close calls.

A loss hurts US more than it hurts them because we have bigger mountains to climb later in the year than they do.

So I don't disagree with your statements here as you make them, I disagree what those statements get turned into by the boot licking media.

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81usaf92 said:

Honestly I'm in the I don't category about the game. I can see us curb stomping them as well as Francios just being that pain in the rear type qb. I think it's key that we get ahead early and silence their crowd because I have this weird feeling it's going to be a 60-40 split in their favor with the current ticket prices and the similar proximity to Atlanta. Bama fans are just too broke with all the major traveling over the past 10 years to say we are going to own neutral site games.

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crimsonaudio said:

Man, I dunno - that kid is a flippin' warrior. His OL looked like a bunch of turnstiles last year so he took some hellacious hits in a LOT of games. IIRC he did miss some time with an injured shoulder, but I saw a couple of games where I was amazed he kept getting up.

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