LePen & Macron in runoff after 1st round of elections in France

CharminTide

Hall of Fame
Oct 23, 2005
7,319
2,032
187
Re: LePen & Macron in run off after 1st round of elections in France

So, basically


vs.


?
 

AUDub

Hall of Fame
Dec 4, 2013
16,258
5,930
187
Give me ambiguity or give me something else.
Re: LePen & Macron in run off after 1st round of elections in France

I would be pleasantly surprised by that as I expect Le Pen to pull this out like Trump.
Trying to draw parallels between Macron-Le Pen and Clinton-Trump (or Brexit) makes little sense. Obviously anything could happen and she could win but the situation isn't comparable. Brexit/Trump were slight underdogs, while Le Pen really needs a miracle.

Her deficit is much higher. If Clinton-Trump was an upset, this would be the Hewitt Trussville High School Huskies beating the New England Patriots.

Difference between Clinton and Trump in terms of polls was 2-3% points.

Remain only led Leave by 2.4% and British polls tend to be crap.

Difference between Macron and Le Pen in terms of polls is over 20% in favor of Macron.

French polling has been very good. It pretty much nailed this first round. As it stands, I think he'll beat her something like 60-40 even if things skew heavily her way.

There was fear that the far-left euroskeptic candidate (Mélenchon) would face off against the far-right euroskeptic candidate, but a centrist pro-EU candidate who is way ahead in polling is about the best case scenario. She had good odds against a far-left candidate but those odds go way down against a centrist.
 

Tidewater

Hall of Fame
Mar 15, 2003
22,401
13,177
287
Hooterville, Vir.
Re: LePen & Macron in run off after 1st round of elections in France

Le Pen has stepped down from the leadership post of the Front National. Probably a Hail Mary. She knows the FN name is poison among mainstream voters.
Depends on where in France. In Toulon (with LOTS of Maghreb immigrants), FN is not poison. In 2015, the FN did well in the far south and the (post-)industrial northeast.
But I agree with your assessment overall. The left in France (and the general French population) makes the left in the US look like a bunch of panty-wastes. They've got communists in the Senate for Pete's sake.
I would not bet much on Le Pen winning round 2.
 

TIDE-HSV

Senior Administrator
Staff member
Oct 13, 1999
84,527
39,617
437
Huntsville, AL,USA
Re: LePen & Macron in run off after 1st round of elections in France

Depends on where in France. In Toulon (with LOTS of Maghreb immigrants), FN is not poison. In 2015, the FN did well in the far south and the (post-)industrial northeast.
But I agree with your assessment overall. The left in France (and the general French population) makes the left in the US look like a bunch of panty-wastes. They've got communists in the Senate for Pete's sake.
I would not bet much on Le Pen winning round 2.
I would be astounded, and, FWIW, I wasn't astounded when Trump won. I always saw it as a possibility. I don't really see LePen as a possibility, even if the Islamists try to help things along with more attacks...
 

AUDub

Hall of Fame
Dec 4, 2013
16,258
5,930
187
Give me ambiguity or give me something else.
Re: LePen & Macron in run off after 1st round of elections in France

Depends on where in France. In Toulon (with LOTS of Maghreb immigrants), FN is not poison. In 2015, the FN did well in the far south and the (post-)industrial northeast.
In some areas they do well, but I wouldn't be entirely shocked if Le Pen loses in a margin similar to her father. This is a move to distance her name from the FN, hoping to pick some mainstream voters. Good luck with that, as the Le Pen name is intrinsically tied to the FN.

But I agree with your assessment overall. The left in France (and the general French population) makes the left in the US look like a bunch of panty-wastes. They've got communists in the Senate for Pete's sake.
I would not bet much on Le Pen winning round 2.
They operate on a very different paradigm over there. Our far left would probably be a centrist party to them, and phrases like right-wing liberal are not oxymorons.
 

crimsonaudio

Administrator
Staff member
Sep 9, 2002
63,414
67,193
462
crimsonaudio.net
Re: LePen & Macron in run off after 1st round of elections in France

They operate on a very different paradigm over there. Our far left would probably be a centrist party to them, and phrases like right-wing liberal are not oxymorons.
Yah, when I told my French friends Sanders had "absolutely zero chance of winning" the presidency they asked why - he's fairly centrist by their standards.
 

Bodhisattva

Hall of Fame
Aug 22, 2001
21,596
2,241
287
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Re: LePen & Macron in run off after 1st round of elections in France

Yah, when I told my French friends Sanders had "absolutely zero chance of winning" the presidency they asked why - he's fairly centrist by their standards.
The difference between the US and France .... Americans had a revolution due to (in large part relatively small) British taxation. The French protest in the streets to beg for higher taxes.
 

92tide

TideFans Legend
May 9, 2000
58,147
44,865
287
54
East Point, Ga, USA
Re: LePen & Macron in run off after 1st round of elections in France

The difference between the US and France .... Americans had a revolution due to (in large part relatively small) British taxation. The French protest in the streets to beg for higher taxes.
well, that and they don't take kindly to being offered cake
 

crimsonaudio

Administrator
Staff member
Sep 9, 2002
63,414
67,193
462
crimsonaudio.net
Re: LePen & Macron in run off after 1st round of elections in France

The difference between the US and France .... Americans had a revolution due to (in large part relatively small) British taxation. The French protest in the streets to beg for higher taxes.
They have a different world view than most Americans. Neither is better, just different. They value community, sharing wealth for the betterment of society, etc, while we Americans tend to lean more towards individualism. Neither are absolutes.

And for the record, the French Revolution was similar to our own.
 

MattinBama

Hall of Fame
Jul 31, 2007
11,144
5,453
187
Re: LePen & Macron in run off after 1st round of elections in France

well, that and they don't take kindly to being offered cake
Even the most beautiful chocolate cake from a kitchen with pretty easily avoidable health code violations?
 

92tide

TideFans Legend
May 9, 2000
58,147
44,865
287
54
East Point, Ga, USA
Re: LePen & Macron in run off after 1st round of elections in France

They have a different world view than most Americans. Neither is better, just different. They value community, sharing wealth for the betterment of society, etc, while we Americans tend to lean more towards individualism. Neither are absolutes.

And for the record, the French Revolution was similar to our own.
and they can cook like nobody's business
 

Tidewater

Hall of Fame
Mar 15, 2003
22,401
13,177
287
Hooterville, Vir.
Re: LePen & Macron in run off after 1st round of elections in France

And for the record, the French Revolution was similar to our own.
I think Burke would have been surprised by that assessment.
Mel Bradford used to say that the struggle for American independence was not a revolution made, but a revolution averted.
The French, on the other hand, uprooted society as thoroughly as they could, adopting the metric system (as an example), getting rid of the seven-day week, and adopting a ten-day week, abolishing the ancient provinces of France and reorganizing the territory of the country by new departements, and restarting the numbering of years, not from Christ's birth, but from the foundation of the French Republic.
(Obviously some changes proved more durable than others).
 
Last edited:

Bodhisattva

Hall of Fame
Aug 22, 2001
21,596
2,241
287
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Re: LePen & Macron in run off after 1st round of elections in France

They have a different world view than most Americans. Neither is better, just different. They value community, sharing wealth for the betterment of society, etc, while we Americans tend to lean more towards individualism. Neither are absolutes.
They certainly do love their collectivism and all the government waste that comes with it, and they are welcome to that foolishness.

And for the record, the French Revolution was similar to our own.
Well, the big difference is that the Americans were fighting for the rights that they should have had as British subjects - representative government, free-ish markets, etc. In this sense, the American experience was not a revolution. We weren't looking to completely overthrow the social order. The French did not have democratic traditions at the time. They were fighting for something they never had by trying to overthrow the monarchy, the nobility, and even the Church. The lack of transition is usually dangerous. The result was not an American or British style government. They got the Reign of Terror. And then they got Napoleon. Edmund Burke's Reflections on the Revolution in France is a good critique of the French revolution.


ETA: Dang it! My computer froze up in mid-post. And Tidewater jumps in and steals my thunder. LOL
 
Last edited:

Latest threads

TideFans.shop : 2024 Madness!

TideFans.shop - Get YOUR Bama Gear HERE!”></a>
<br />

<!--/ END TideFans.shop & item link \-->
<p style= Purchases made through our TideFans.shop and Amazon.com links may result in a commission being paid to TideFans.