News Article: Are Alabama Players Draft Busts or Not? The Numbers Tell the Story

RTR91 · Apr 26, 2017

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On the game’s biggest stage, during the final 60 minutes of the NFL’s season on Super Bowl LI, three former University of Alabama players performed starring roles in front of the football-watching world. Courtney Upshaw sacked Tom Brady. Julio Jones made two acrobatic catches among his four receptions for 87 yards. Dont’a Hightower made the game-changing play when he strip-sacked Matt Ryan to jump start the Patriots’ comeback.

Last season also saw six former Crimson Tide players make the Pro Bowl, the most of any program in the country. Jones, Amari Cooper, Hightower, C.J. Mosley, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Landon Collins represented UA. The next-closest program, Florida, had three Pro Bowlers.

Former UA Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram rushed for more than 1,000 yards in 2016 and averaged among the league leaders in yards per carry.

Yet as the 2017 NFL Draft approaches, there remains a nagging doubt about Alabama players and a perception that they turn out to be busts in the pro league. The Tuscaloosa News decided to look into the metrics to examine if that perception is valid or an overblown fallacy.

Believe Phil Savage's comments are pretty accurate when looking at why Bama players might not get drafted as high as many expect. Scouts start overthinking.

Plus, look at the three guys that are out of the league. Two went to dysfunctional franchises that didn't have the necessary structure for either to do well with their off the field problems. The Raiders are different today than they were in 2010. If Ro was drafted by Oakland now, he might have been able to succeed and not fall into the traps he did.

RollTide_HTTR · Apr 26, 2017

The "Alabama players are busts" thing is so tiring and I'm glad they actually got to the numbers in this. Just for fun here is a list of former Alabama players who are arguably top 5 to 10 at their position.

1. Julio
2. Hightower
3. Cooper
4. Collins
5. Dareus
6. HaHa
7. Mosley

This doesn't even include any of the solid starters or the guys who were drafted last year and just need time.

FThomas · Apr 26, 2017

Frankly, it is a mix just like the draft in general. We have the most first round picks that are in the pro-bowl (Julio, Hightower, Mosley, etc.) and we likely have the most first and second round picks of the past decade that have struggled. (Richardson, Milliner, etc). It is just the numbers game of having so many talented players drafted. The entire draft is like that. You take the odds of success and it is probably split down the middle. Look at the class of 2009... ouch!

RTR91 · Apr 26, 2017

FThomas said:
Frankly, it is a mix just like the draft in general. We have the most first round picks that are in the pro-bowl (Julio, Hightower, Mosley, etc.) and we likely have the most first and second round picks of the past decade that have struggled. (Richardson, Milliner, etc). It is just the numbers game of having so many talented players drafted. The entire draft is like that. You take the odds of success and it is probably split down the middle. Look at the class of 2009... ouch!

The numbers presented suggest otherwise.

KrAzY3 · Apr 26, 2017

Honestly I think this all hinged on Trent. He was taken really high as a RB (even at the time some people were questioning that), and he landed in a really bad spot. Such a high profile bust really dragged down the perception. The reality though is starting to becoming undeniable. How many Alabama players have to win Super Bowls and go to Pro Bowls before it is acknowledged that Alabama players are producing at the next level?

CrimsonForce · Apr 26, 2017

My question is who is saying that Alabama players are typically busts? We have the most 1st round draft picks and players drafted since Saban took over. NFL teams obviously don't think that..

RollTide_HTTR · Apr 26, 2017

KrAzY3 said:
Honestly I think this all hinged on Trent. He was taken really high as a RB (even at the time some people were questioning that), and he landed in a really bad spot. Such a high profile bust really dragged down the perception. The reality though is starting to becoming undeniable. How many Alabama players have to win Super Bowls and go to Pro Bowls before it is acknowledged that Alabama players are producing at the next level?

I don't think it's just about Trent. He is the biggest bust among Bama players but I think it's more than that. When USC was on top the same things were said about their players. It's a curse of being THE program in college football. You have more players drafted and highly regarded than anyone else so just by volume you will have more busts than most schools. Plus, people love to hate the best.

CHATTBRIT · Apr 26, 2017

It is vital that a player gets a good match with the team that selects him. Richardson going to Cleveland had disaster written all over it. Likewise Rollo to the then Raiders. I doubt Bama is any different than other top college teams. If a scheme does not utilize a player's best skill set, then lack of success can be expected.

day-day · Apr 26, 2017

First, Alabama players are closer to their ceilings than some other players because of how they were coached and developed.

“What I’m saying is that NFL scouts absolutely have to take into consideration over a three- or four- or five-year period, ‘Hey, is the Alabama player closer to his potential or his ceiling than say a guy from a smaller school who may have a lot of ability but hasn’t been developed yet? He hasn’t had the training, the nutrition, the ability to go the weight room in first-class facilities.’ That’s always the rub in scouting. How much room is there for him to grow?

I thought the point being brought up here was interesting. I guess there are no diamonds-in-the-rough at Bama so this helps scouts feel better when evaluating players at Bama while having more of a guessing game with players from lesser schools.

Con · Apr 26, 2017

day-day said:
I thought the point being brought up here was interesting. I guess there are no diamonds-in-the-rough at Bama so this helps scouts feel better when evaluating players at Bama while having more of a guessing game with players from lesser schools.

Seems like with this line of thinking from the GM's an Alabama player would be more prepared to play right away than developing over a year or two.

RTR91 · Apr 26, 2017

Con said:
Seems like with this line of thinking from the GM's an Alabama player would be more prepared to play right away than developing over a year or two.

It's two-fold. While knowing what you're getting, scouts and GMs begin thinking "this player is great and probably hasn't reached his potential while we know the guy from Bama is great and at his ceiling."

Con · Apr 26, 2017

RTR91 said:
It's two-fold. While knowing what you're getting, scouts and GMs begin thinking "this player is great and probably hasn't reached his potential while we know the guy from Bama is great and at his ceiling."

I always think of Mike Mamula this time of year. I never hear his name much anymore, but his combine got him drafted.

I just checked and he is 43 now so that is why I don't hear about him anymore.

RollTide_HTTR · Apr 26, 2017

RTR91 said:
It's two-fold. While knowing what you're getting, scouts and GMs begin thinking "this player is great and probably hasn't reached his potential while we know the guy from Bama is great and at his ceiling."

I wonder if scouts feel the same way about Bama offensive and defensive players or if they view them differently.

deliveryman35 · Apr 26, 2017

Given who he chose to associate with, Ro was not surprising to me but I will never understand why Trent did not do better.

TheRealPokeChop · Apr 26, 2017

You missed Ryan Kelly who was among the best centers last year.

Also Carson tinker is worth a nod.

CajunCrimson · Apr 26, 2017

RollTide_HTTR said:
The "Alabama players are busts" thing is so tiring and I'm glad they actually got to the numbers in this. Just for fun here is a list of former Alabama players who are arguably top 5 to 10 at their position.

1. Julio
2. Hightower
3. Cooper
4. Collins
5. Dareus
6. HaHa
7. Mosley

This doesn't even include any of the solid starters or the guys who were drafted last year and just need time.

I think you would also get people who would put Ryan Kelly in that category

RollTide_HTTR · Apr 26, 2017

CajunCrimson said:
I think you would also get people who would put Ryan Kelly in that category

I thought about it but felt like I should give him another year. He struggled early in the season.

RTR91 · Apr 27, 2017

From the article about Ryan Anderson and the draft:

Teams have expressed concerns in recent years about the health of some Alabama players, given how hard Saban works them and with some Crimson Tide prospects fading quickly in the pros due to health concerns.

First, I had to laugh because OJ received an A+ on his health screening at the combine, which is amazing.

Second, who all has faded in the pros due to the health concerns? Is the list that long?

stlimprov · Apr 27, 2017

Con said:
I always think of Mike Mamula this time of year. I never hear his name much anymore, but his combine got him drafted.

I just checked and he is 43 now so that is why I don't hear about him anymore.

"This guys numbers are AWESOME...AND we didn't get stuck with that pothead Sapp!"

RollTide_HTTR · Apr 27, 2017

RTR91 said:
From the article about Ryan Anderson and the draft:

First, I had to laugh because OJ received an A+ on his health screening at the combine, which is amazing.

Second, who all has faded in the pros due to the health concerns? Is the list that long?

Yea, the fading quickly thing seems off the mark. I do understand the injury issue though. Now with the playoffs Bama players are almost always playing 2-3 games more than the average school each year. That has got to have an impact early in their careers and I think it has for some.

News Article: Are Alabama Players Draft Busts or Not? The Numbers Tell the Story

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