Big 12 perception continues to sink

Redwood Forrest

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I would think the Pac 12 is more endangered than the ACC if they don't get Texas. The Pac 12 really needs some games in an earlier time zone from what I have read. Too many people go to bed before those 1 A.M games are over. Instead of games kicking off at 9 P.M. they could tee it up at 7 P.M That is why they need four Central Time Zone teams.
 

KrAzY3

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I would think the Pac 12 is more endangered than the ACC if they don't get Texas. The Pac 12 really needs some games in an earlier time zone from what I have read. Too many people go to bed before those 1 A.M games are over. Instead of games kicking off at 9 P.M. they could tee it up at 7 P.M That is why they need four Central Time Zone teams.
Their geography does provide a weakness in that regard, but it's also what keeps them safe. There's just no conference threatening to steal their teams. The Big 10 and SEC have no interest in going that far west. The ACC on the other hand? They have programs both of those conferences have their eye on. There is also the the short flirtation between Clemson, FSU and the Big 12 (when those programs were mad about the basketball school friendly deal). The ACC is fairly safe right now simply because of the penalties for leaving, the Big 12 is in bad shape because they have disgruntled programs. The Pac 12 might not have much better finances, but they still have a far better outlook.
 

Redwood Forrest

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Their geography does provide a weakness in that regard, but it's also what keeps them safe. There's just no conference threatening to steal their teams. The Big 10 and SEC have no interest in going that far west. The ACC on the other hand? They have programs both of those conferences have their eye on. There is also the the short flirtation between Clemson, FSU and the Big 12 (when those programs were mad about the basketball school friendly deal). The ACC is fairly safe right now simply because of the penalties for leaving, the Big 12 is in bad shape because they have disgruntled programs. The Pac 12 might not have much better finances, but they still have a far better outlook.
I see what you mean about the safe part, but I think the ACC will have a recommitment of their penalty for leaving before long. I seem to remember Maryland, or someone, getting away without paying that penalty. I could be wrong.
 

ALA2262

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You are right, I had forgotten about the old Big East limping along. I wonder if the Pac 12 will stop at 14 teams? If they think the B1G, SEC and ACC will add two more, then they may add six and become the first 16 team super conference. Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Kansas State would add the basketball power. Give them Colorado back along with Utah and you have the Pac 16 East.

Purely from a viewership stance, the ACC or B1G would add a hunk of T.V. set by adding TCU and Baylor.
Adding six teams to the Pac-12 would give them 18. Not 16.
 

GrayTide

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KrAzY mentioned the B1G and Texas. This with maybe the addition OU would, IMO, drop the SEC to second place. Based on the history of these two programs it would balance out the B1G between east and west. Of course the current west division would have to move two teams to the east. Maybe Illinois and NW. Could happen but it would be interesting to see how much authority Delaney would have with Texas.
 

UntouchableCrew

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It seems to me that the SEC is tough enough now. They should try to get into the Big Ten ... at least they could renew their rivalry with Nebraska and also have an easier schedule.
This was my thought as well. Seems like they could own the Big Ten West, play Nebraska every year, play Ohio State/Mich/Penn State in the B1G Title game most years. More money, better conference, but without the grind of the SEC West. Probably wouldn't help recruiting as much, but still seems like a favorable move.
 

RobK

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There really is no way to make any Power 5 realignment work financially (in terms of TV dollars) without the Big 12 collapsing and ceasing to exist. TV networks are overextended, and rights fees have likely plateaued at least for now, meaning that ESPN and Fox aren't going to finance a future round of realignment like they did the last time (increasing payments to the expanded conferences while keeping the raided/depleted Big 12 whole).

If the Big 12 goes totally belly up (freeing ESPN/ABC and Fox of a massive financial obligation and opening up a decent slice of inventory), then you have dollars available for other conferences to compete for. But it is hard to see the Big 12 breaking up as long as Texas stands pat. So Oklahoma--in spite of their president's wishes--is kind of stuck. Stuck with a grant-of-rights agreement that financially forces them to remain in the Big 12 till 2025 (I think) unless it totally breaks up, which a unilateral departure of OU (or even OU plus Okie State) probably does not force. The only real way to bust up the league before the grant-of-rights expires would be for there to be a four-team (UT/TT/OU/OSU) exodus to the Pac 12. But, of course, the Longhorn Network complicates that option, as does the politics of leaving Baylor behind and the fact that the additional TV money that Pac 12 would require to make the deal pencil out would certainly require the prior collapse of the Big 12 TV contracts.
 

KrAzY3

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I think one way of clearing the picture up some is to look at the conferences and where they stand. I'd break them down into four categories.

1: The completely safe from all external threats grouping
Big 10
SEC
Pac-12 (While their finances are not as good as the first two, they're still rock solid in terms of stability).

2: The Hunted
ACC (Yes they are in a better position than the Big 12, but they are still using coercion to keep their teams around. If their grip weakens, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, FSU, Clemson, several programs could look at their options).
Big 12

3: The at least some fans show up to watch them conferences
AAC
Mountain West

4: The garbage bin of the FBS
C-USA
Sun Belt
MAC

Now, we can't forget about Notre Dame. They're one of two teams that could pretty much pick any conference they wanted to join, if they'd just become an equal member. I suspect one reason the Big 10 hasn't gone to 16 is simply because they don't have Notre Dame. Texas is of similar if not greater value, except perhaps to the SEC who already has Texas A&M. Anyway, out of all the possibilities in the near future, the Big 12 falling apart remains the most likely scenario.

The deal that seems most likely is one that was already considered basically. Three things stopped it last time. A: Texas A&M got cold feet, B: Texas didn't want to share, and C: The powers that be decided they didn't want to see the Big 12 fall apart. RobK makes an interesting point though, at the time it seemed like they were printing free money when it came to the growth of revenue, now that things have slowed they might decide its in their interests to let one of the conferences fall apart so that money can be used elsewhere.

The big obstacle now though, and one that could still present itself would be the LNH. If Fox is going to be giving up a piece of the action in the Big 12 (while they would be somewhat compensated via more Pac 12 content) they might not be too happy if they watch ESPN get a piece of the Pac 12 Network (which almost certainly would have to happen). One thing that's interesting is that ESPN and Fox both didn't want the Big 12 to expand, so they are one of the reasons the conference is still on thin ice. Anyway, let's assume it happens and Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State all go to the Pac 12. The Pac 12 then partners with ESPN on their network, they add add states with a population of over 30 million, they have some games that air earlier, etc... it would seem that if nothing else the Pac 12's revenue stream would improve.

What then though? What about Kansas, West Virginia, TCU, Iowa St., Baylor and Kansas St.? Well, this could turn out to be a case of low hanging fruit for the ACC. I could imagine the ACC adding Kansas, and having some interest in Baylor. There's one wrinkle though, they have Notre Dame as a partial member. If they just added Kansas it would make things lopsided, but they'd be adding a strong basketball school, an athletic department that's in great shape (CNN ranks them 28th among public schools in AD revenue, so hard to imagine it hurting finances), not disrupting their football powers, and perhaps most importantly, they'd finish off the Big 12 (who once flirted with Clemson and FSU) and solidify their status as one of the 4 super conferences. For the sake of argument I'm going to assume they try convincing Notre Dame to become a full member instead of adding Baylor. It should be noted though, that while the ACC's status as a power conference would be safe, they still would remain a potential target for SEC or Big 10 expansion in the future.

The AAC and the Mountain West both have 12 teams. The AAC has 31K average attendance, the Mountain West has 24K. Sagarin has the AAC rated higher as a conference as well. Considering the fact that TCU already tried to join the Big East once (before it fell apart), I think it would make a lot of sense for West Virginia, Baylor, and TCU to head over to the AAC. The AAC already wants inclusion to the power conferences, and this would put them closer to the ACC. The fourth one would be a little tricky. Iowa St. and Kansas St. both are in fairly small states and have athletic departments in similar shape. Boise St. was going to join the Big East as well, but they're a one trick pony. Then there's BYU, who is should be noted has better attendance than every school mentioned so far (other than Notre Dame and Texas). Either way though in that scenario the AAC should come out in a strong position and the Moutain West would likely add what ever is left over (BYU would almost certain join a conference with the Big 12 off the table).

I don't really see a likely scenario that involves either the Big 10 or the SEC. It also seems like a real longshot for the ACC to add Oklahoma. The biggest question if this Pac-12 merger were to happen would be if the Big 12 could somehow survive with just 6 remaining teams, or if something topples them. This wouldn't really be a debate if they'd gone to 12 teams, as for instance BYU and a Florida school would have been more than enough to keep them afloat.
 

uaintn

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It's a Zombie conference. A weakened Texas calls the shots, OU follows along, and the rest are also rans who will occasionally have good years (e.g Baylor, Northwestern) beating up on the other very weak sisters. As soon as there is enough money to lure Texas into a different conference, which I expect will be the PAC 12, it dies and hardly anyone will notice.

I think that move will come along very close in time to consolidation to four 16-team conferences, with another +/- 64 teams folded into a new subdivision. There's already no reason to continue the fiction that schools who struggle to average, say, 25,000 fans and lose massive amounts of money trying to have top-level football teams should be lumped in with Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, USC, etc. It's time to stop pretending that say, Akron or Bowling Green or Charlotte are, or ever will be, consistently competitive with Penn State, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. Not saying that they shouldn't have football by any stretch, just the opposite, but let them play competitive teams.
 

GrayTide

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It's a Zombie conference. A weakened Texas calls the shots, OU follows along, and the rest are also rans who will occasionally have good years (e.g Baylor, Northwestern) beating up on the other very weak sisters. As soon as there is enough money to lure Texas into a different conference, which I expect will be the PAC 12, it dies and hardly anyone will notice.

I think that move will come along very close in time to consolidation to four 16-team conferences, with another +/- 64 teams folded into a new subdivision. There's already no reason to continue the fiction that schools who struggle to average, say, 25,000 fans and lose massive amounts of money trying to have top-level football teams should be lumped in with Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, USC, etc. It's time to stop pretending that say, Akron or Bowling Green or Charlotte are, or ever will be, consistently competitive with Penn State, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. Not saying that they shouldn't have football by any stretch, just the opposite, but let them play competitive teams.
I have said essentially the same things for serveral years now, but like your version better.
 

Redwood Forrest

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Adding six teams to the Pac-12 would give them 18. Not 16.
You are right. I was thinking of Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State joining Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State. I have no idea where I came up with Kansas and Kansas State :conf2:

I think B1G really wants to add Notre Dame and Texas. That would be prestigious. Of course the problem is the Notre Dame NBC and Texas LHN deals. Notre Dame must be raking in billions with every home game on over-the-air TV and every away game on over-the-air or ESPN.
 

JDCrimson

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The same reason the pac12 wants to expand into the central time zone is likely the same reason teams from the big 12 haven't already joined them. The leaving big 12 teams will have fewer prime time slots to play in. Texas playing regularly at Pacific Coast times would actually devalue the value adding Texas to any conference would normally provide.

Texas doesn't want to move to any conference where there is real competition. Generally speaking if Texas beats OU and KSU they are in hunt for their conference championship. Moving to the pac12 Texas would likely have to face USC, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, UCLA, tough Utah, and a resurgent Colorado. That is a decidedly tougher conference buffet than what they currently have. Texas nor OU can leave to go to another power 5 conference and expect to be as competitive as they have been which is already marginal at best. There are no easy options remaining otherwise they would have already happened.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G870A using Tapatalk
 

81usaf92

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You are right. I was thinking of Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State joining Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State. I have no idea where I came up with Kansas and Kansas State :conf2:

I think B1G really wants to add Notre Dame and Texas. That would be prestigious. Of course the problem is the Notre Dame NBC and Texas LHN deals. Notre Dame must be raking in billions with every home game on over-the-air TV and every away game on over-the-air or ESPN.
The teams that have a shot at a conference if the Big 12 disbands

1. Texas
2. OU
3. Kansas

Everyone else is left out in the cold. The only exception is maybe Okie lite
 

4Q Basket Case

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It's a Zombie conference. A weakened Texas calls the shots, OU follows along, and the rest are also rans who will occasionally have good years (e.g Baylor, Northwestern) beating up on the other very weak sisters. As soon as there is enough money to lure Texas into a different conference, which I expect will be the PAC 12, it dies and hardly anyone will notice.

I think that move will come along very close in time to consolidation to four 16-team conferences, with another +/- 64 teams folded into a new subdivision. There's already no reason to continue the fiction that schools who struggle to average, say, 25,000 fans and lose massive amounts of money trying to have top-level football teams should be lumped in with Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, USC, etc. It's time to stop pretending that say, Akron or Bowling Green or Charlotte are, or ever will be, consistently competitive with Penn State, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. Not saying that they shouldn't have football by any stretch, just the opposite, but let them play competitive teams.
Points are valid. Northwestern is in the Big 10.
 

KrAzY3

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I think B1G really wants to add Notre Dame and Texas. That would be prestigious. Of course the problem is the Notre Dame NBC and Texas LHN deals. Notre Dame must be raking in billions with every home game on over-the-air TV and every away game on over-the-air or ESPN.
I honestly get the feeling that they'd like Notre Dame more than anything. I think they'd like Texas, they'd take Texas, but it would be a business decision. I think Notre Dame fits in with the idea of who they think they are though. And even if they "just" add Notre Dame, we're talking about Nebraska, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, and Notre Dame in one conference. That's pretty darn top heavy.

As far as the money, the stats I have seen indicate that Texas and Notre Dame are probably making less than the best shared deals in conferences like the Big 10. I guess it's about leverage, as powerful as their brands are they just don't have the kind of leverage the strongest conferences can muster. Either way, a move should end up generating more revenue for either of those teams.

The same reason the pac12 wants to expand into the central time zone is likely the same reason teams from the big 12 haven't already joined them. The leaving big 12 teams will have fewer prime time slots to play in. Texas playing regularly at Pacific Coast times would actually devalue the value adding Texas to any conference would normally provide.
You know, I hoped the Pac-12 deal happened because I did imagine Big 12 territory being split. The idea was how many people would want to watch the games happening out west, with Texas and Oklahoma, when they could watch Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, and Texas A&M playing SEC games? I felt that the move would create a bit of a split in the audience. However, out of all the concerns that seemed to fall lower on the totem pole.

I can't completely explain why Texas wanted this deal to happen. On the surface it's easy to understand, if you took the best teams in the Big 12 and you added them to the Pac-12, if you added all those TV sets from Texas and so on, things would have to improve for the Pac-12. From the Texas side, the Pac-12 already makes around the same amount as the Big 12. If you give the giant boost that the state of Texas adds, logically this would push that up substantially. Right now though, it feels like Oklahoma and the Pac-12 need this deal to happen more than anyone. Texas is never going to have trouble finding a home. Oklahoma might. But, there's no question that this deal financially would give a huge shot in the arm for the Pac-12 financially, and make them as stable and as powerful as any conference in college football. It would be jumping off a sinking ship and onto something rock solid.

Long term though? That would be interesting. They'd monopolize the western markets, obviously. They'd lay claim to being the toughest conference in college football. Their network should be in much better shape. But, would individual teams be better off? I'd have my doubts about that.
 

4Q Basket Case

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I think UTw overplayed its hand a few years ago, and might not be as desirable an addition as it once would have been.

They continued to angle for special monetary treatment from any conference where there was mutual interest. Which went over about as you would expect in any one worth being in.

Having gotten the unaccustomed middle finger, they launched the Longhorn Network, trumpeting that their omnipresent superiority in everything would make them so rich that everyone else would be begging them to reconsider.

Fast forward a few years. The LHN has severely underperformed, as have the athletic teams. Now they're stuck in by far the weakest P5 conference, and casting about. Even non-SEC fans snicker about the predominant style of play, and the commissioner is a buffoon.

Nobody wants their combination of arrogance, entitlement, and lagging performance.

They don't bring what they once did, and they steadfastly refuse to admit it, even to themselves.

If only Colt hadn't got hurt....
 

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