It's easy to say the Big 12 is the weakest conference and when the tv contracts are up for renewable, they will implode. But where are the teams going to go? Is Texas really that desirable? Can you get Oklahoma without Oklahoma State?
I don't see the SEC being particularly interested in either team. With Texas A&M, we already have a massive presence in the state of Texas. Bringing in UT does nothing to add to the subscriber base. It would only bring in more competition in all sports, something that is not needed, and a ton of headaches from the relationships side of the equation. Texas looks down its nose at the SEC anyway, and would never join the league that A&M left them for. That would be a sign of weakness to them, and believe me, that means something to them. As for Oklahoma, it is well documented in this thread. They do not bring a large population base, and only bring in more competition in most sports. Besides, I think OU actually ends up worse off in the end. They will never come into SEC recruiting territory and win battles on a regular basis. They have a history in the state of Texas. They have no history in Florida/Georgia/Louisiana. They are not coming into those states and winning battles against Alabama/Auburn/LSU/Georgia/Florida/FSU/Miami. It's just not happening. So they must continue to recruit the state of Texas. Theoretically, they could maintain the rivalry with Texas despite being in different conferences. They did for most of their history. Also, they would renew a yearly game with A&M, which helps maintain their state of Texas presence. But it's no guarantee. They are weakening as we speak. Bob Stoops is on the backend of his tenure there. I don't think it's guaranteed that we have the 2000s Oklahoma and not the 1990s Oklahoma if they were to join. I think Oklahoma would jump to the SEC without even looking. But I really don't see why we would want them, all other things considered.
Ultimately, if the SEC adds anyone, it will be from the states of North Carolina and Virginia, and it will preferably be those schools (not Virginia Tech/NC State). I just don't see the ACC falling apart, and I don't see those schools being interested in leaving to join the SEC. So, we stand pat with 14 teams and continue to print money.
The Big Ten is the only other league that is sitting in a place of contentment. I've seen it mentioned that Texas or Oklahoma could join the Big Ten, but does anyone honestly believe Texas wants to be playing games in Ohio or Michigan in November? Or better yet and also more likely, Minnesota and Wisconsin? Really? And Oklahoma. There is no way they join the Big Ten without Texas (I've seen it mentioned that the Big Ten would add Kansas and Oklahoma). No way the Sooners give up their ties to the Southwest and play games in Minnesota in November. The Nebraska rivalry renewal would be awesome but it does nothing for recruiting and they've already abandoned the Huskers before. And the Big Ten does not add Kansas unless they also get Oklahoma or Texas. So Kansas, while likely the 3rd most attractive current Big 12 team, really has no options without being partners with either the Sooners or Longhorns in a move.
So, the Big Ten is much like the SEC in this regard. I think ultimately Notre Dame is still their most attractive target, even if they have long since been the least likely to join. Short of Notre Dame, I think the Big Ten is also most attracted to an addition of North Carolina and Virginia.
The ACC, I think, would take a semi-membership of Texas in a heartbeat. Like Notre Dame, Texas would play 5 ACC opponents every year in football, have their own football tv contract, and have all other sports as full ACC members. I think this is somewhat likely. I've even seen it posited that the ACC would add Oklahoma and Kansas as full members. Having 18 teams in all sports but football, with Notre Dame/Texas being only partial members there. That would certainly shore up the ACC as a conference on the same level as the SEC/Big Ten.
The PAC 12 is in a tough spot. I think they would still love to have Texas, despite how badly the Longhorns burned those relationships back in 2010. Yes, they would take Texas/OU in a heartbeat. But OU cannot get in without Texas. This was proven in 2012 (I think) when they attempted to join along with Oklahoma State. The PAC 12 asked about Texas, OU laughed nervously and said well it's just us, and the PAC 12 promptly hung up the phone. I think the PAC 12 would take Oklahoma State and Texas Tech along with OU/Texas, as long as Texas is included. But only in a full time basis, on the same terms as all other teams (which means the LHN must be left behind). This will not happen until the LHN is disbanded at the end of its contract. Seems like it was a 15 year deal originally. These are the only options for PAC 12 expansion. BYU is a non-starter. With the latest round of possible Big 12 expansion falling through, BYU is a non-starter with every power 5 league and will only get back into a conference by groveling to the MWC.
That's my longwinded take. Texas has options. Oklahoma has options, but not as many as they think. Kansas has a couple of options, but they must include some combination of Texas/OU. All the rest of the Big 12 have no options, except hoping Texas/OU somehow decides to stick around when this round of tv contracts expire. West Virginia might have an out depending on how things break. But it would be a long, long shot.
I don't see the SEC being particularly interested in either team. With Texas A&M, we already have a massive presence in the state of Texas. Bringing in UT does nothing to add to the subscriber base. It would only bring in more competition in all sports, something that is not needed, and a ton of headaches from the relationships side of the equation. Texas looks down its nose at the SEC anyway, and would never join the league that A&M left them for. That would be a sign of weakness to them, and believe me, that means something to them. As for Oklahoma, it is well documented in this thread. They do not bring a large population base, and only bring in more competition in most sports. Besides, I think OU actually ends up worse off in the end. They will never come into SEC recruiting territory and win battles on a regular basis. They have a history in the state of Texas. They have no history in Florida/Georgia/Louisiana. They are not coming into those states and winning battles against Alabama/Auburn/LSU/Georgia/Florida/FSU/Miami. It's just not happening. So they must continue to recruit the state of Texas. Theoretically, they could maintain the rivalry with Texas despite being in different conferences. They did for most of their history. Also, they would renew a yearly game with A&M, which helps maintain their state of Texas presence. But it's no guarantee. They are weakening as we speak. Bob Stoops is on the backend of his tenure there. I don't think it's guaranteed that we have the 2000s Oklahoma and not the 1990s Oklahoma if they were to join. I think Oklahoma would jump to the SEC without even looking. But I really don't see why we would want them, all other things considered.
Ultimately, if the SEC adds anyone, it will be from the states of North Carolina and Virginia, and it will preferably be those schools (not Virginia Tech/NC State). I just don't see the ACC falling apart, and I don't see those schools being interested in leaving to join the SEC. So, we stand pat with 14 teams and continue to print money.
The Big Ten is the only other league that is sitting in a place of contentment. I've seen it mentioned that Texas or Oklahoma could join the Big Ten, but does anyone honestly believe Texas wants to be playing games in Ohio or Michigan in November? Or better yet and also more likely, Minnesota and Wisconsin? Really? And Oklahoma. There is no way they join the Big Ten without Texas (I've seen it mentioned that the Big Ten would add Kansas and Oklahoma). No way the Sooners give up their ties to the Southwest and play games in Minnesota in November. The Nebraska rivalry renewal would be awesome but it does nothing for recruiting and they've already abandoned the Huskers before. And the Big Ten does not add Kansas unless they also get Oklahoma or Texas. So Kansas, while likely the 3rd most attractive current Big 12 team, really has no options without being partners with either the Sooners or Longhorns in a move.
So, the Big Ten is much like the SEC in this regard. I think ultimately Notre Dame is still their most attractive target, even if they have long since been the least likely to join. Short of Notre Dame, I think the Big Ten is also most attracted to an addition of North Carolina and Virginia.
The ACC, I think, would take a semi-membership of Texas in a heartbeat. Like Notre Dame, Texas would play 5 ACC opponents every year in football, have their own football tv contract, and have all other sports as full ACC members. I think this is somewhat likely. I've even seen it posited that the ACC would add Oklahoma and Kansas as full members. Having 18 teams in all sports but football, with Notre Dame/Texas being only partial members there. That would certainly shore up the ACC as a conference on the same level as the SEC/Big Ten.
The PAC 12 is in a tough spot. I think they would still love to have Texas, despite how badly the Longhorns burned those relationships back in 2010. Yes, they would take Texas/OU in a heartbeat. But OU cannot get in without Texas. This was proven in 2012 (I think) when they attempted to join along with Oklahoma State. The PAC 12 asked about Texas, OU laughed nervously and said well it's just us, and the PAC 12 promptly hung up the phone. I think the PAC 12 would take Oklahoma State and Texas Tech along with OU/Texas, as long as Texas is included. But only in a full time basis, on the same terms as all other teams (which means the LHN must be left behind). This will not happen until the LHN is disbanded at the end of its contract. Seems like it was a 15 year deal originally. These are the only options for PAC 12 expansion. BYU is a non-starter. With the latest round of possible Big 12 expansion falling through, BYU is a non-starter with every power 5 league and will only get back into a conference by groveling to the MWC.
That's my longwinded take. Texas has options. Oklahoma has options, but not as many as they think. Kansas has a couple of options, but they must include some combination of Texas/OU. All the rest of the Big 12 have no options, except hoping Texas/OU somehow decides to stick around when this round of tv contracts expire. West Virginia might have an out depending on how things break. But it would be a long, long shot.