I am an optimist, but I can't help worry about the FSU game. They are well coached, have a ton of experienced talent, and they have been preparing for this game since January. If they believe that they can beat Alabama, then it will be a dog fight.
My sense is that the winner of that game is going to the CFP. Both will likely get tripped up somewhere else during their season. But, if the game is close, I think that the loser will still make the CFP with 2 losses as long as they win their conference.
So, as usual, winning the first game of the season isn't as important as winning the SEC. It will feel like it is a make or break game at the time, but it is not. It will simply set the tone for the rest of the season.