How big of a jump can we realistically expect from Jalen?
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  1. #1

    How big of a jump can we realistically expect from Jalen?

    Inside the numbers: What kind of improvement can Jalen Hurts make in Year 2?


    Saw this and started thinking about realistic expectations for a year 2 jump. For some reference I put McElroy's and McCarron's 1st and 2nd year stats as well as Jalen's from last year and the stats they give as goals in the article. Also, keep in mind McCarron and McElroy only played in 13-14 games while Jalen played in 15.

    McElroy
    Year Cmp Att Cmp % Yds Y/A TD INT QB Rating
    2009 198 325 60.9 2,508 8.2 17 4 140.5
    2010 222 313 70.9 2,987 9.5 20 5 169.0


    McCarron
    Year Cmp Att Cmp % Yds Y/A TD INT QB Rating
    2011 219 328 66.8 2,634 8.0 16 5 147.3
    2012 211 314 67.2 2,933 9.3 30 3 175.3

    Hurts
    Year Cmp Att Cmp % Yds Y/A TD INT QB Rating
    2016 240 382 62.8 2,780 7.3 23 9 139.1
    2017 ???? ??? 67.5 3,000 8.6* 30** 5 155.0

    * Weirdly both McElroy and McCarron jumped
    exactly 1.3 y/a so I just applied the same to Jalen.
    ** This is just based on my assumption that we both throw more and have more big plays in the passing game which would lead to a decent jump in TDs

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  3. #2
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    Re: How big of a jump can we realistically expect from Jalen?

    If Jalen's deep balls are as consistently good throughout the season as they were during the A-Day game, his overall improvement in terms of raw stats could easily dwarf both McElroy's and McCarron's.
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    Re: How big of a jump can we realistically expect from Jalen?

    My biggest concern, which started late last year when it dawned on me, is that a significant portion of the completion percentage and yards were really "1-yard-pass" jet sweeps. They could just as well have been handoffs, like an end-around. The point is, this play was almost completely diagnosed and defeated by the defenses we played against at the end of the season.

    So I think (really, hope) the jet sweep is going away. This starts us at a lower baseline from last year, which means we are hoping for a bigger increment overall, into more of a "standard" passing game, with drop backs, play actions, and QB draws.

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    BamaNation Hall of Fame B1GTide's Avatar
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    Re: How big of a jump can we realistically expect from Jalen?

    I don't know what to expect from his passing numbers, but I expect Daboll to force the ball down the field early and often. I also expect Jalen to share playing time somewhat to get Tua reps on the field, so I have no idea how that might impact his numbers.

  6. #5

    Re: How big of a jump can we realistically expect from Jalen?

    I told my brother he would throw for 3,000 yards. It's really hard to figure out where he'll be developmentally because we don't have a comparison that really fits. He's going from true freshman to true sophomore, hypothetically the biggest leap in development happens after the true freshman year. But, there's no guarantee. He should be better, and he was already very good. Anyone who watched him at A-Day can see that he can throw the ball down the field with accuracy. As I've said before his arm isn't the issue, it's more mental development that's key in my opinion.
    Last edited by KrAzY3; June 23rd, 2017 at 06:38 PM.
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    Re: How big of a jump can we realistically expect from Jalen?

    Quote Originally Posted by KrAzY3 View Post
    I told my brother he would throw for 3,000 yards. It's really hard to figure out where he'll be developmentally because we don't have a comparison that really fits. He's going from true freshman to true sophomore, hypothetically the biggest leap in development happens after the true freshman year. But, there's no guarantee. He should be better, and he was already very good. Anyone who watched him at A-Day can see that he can throw the ball down the field with accuracy. As I've said before his army isn't the issue, it's more mental development that's key in my opinion.
    I agree completely. He has a very good arm but I would add he needs to continue to work on foot work and keeping his head up against pressure.

    Personally, I expect a pretty significant jump in all categories. I actually think his Yards/Attempt will jump a good bit more than I put in the OP. But that may also cause his completion percentage to drop.

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    Re: How big of a jump can we realistically expect from Jalen?

    I think I am correct in that AJ and Greg were upper classmen. At the very least red shirt Sophomores. Jalen was a TRUE Freshman. I expect a dramatically improved Jalen in 2017. In the spring scrimmages he was outstanding.

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    Re: How big of a jump can we realistically expect from Jalen?

    Quote Originally Posted by DrollTide View Post
    My biggest concern, which started late last year when it dawned on me, is that a significant portion of the completion percentage and yards were really "1-yard-pass" jet sweeps. They could just as well have been handoffs, like an end-around. The point is, this play was almost completely diagnosed and defeated by the defenses we played against at the end of the season.

    So I think (really, hope) the jet sweep is going away. This starts us at a lower baseline from last year, which means we are hoping for a bigger increment overall, into more of a "standard" passing game, with drop backs, play actions, and QB draws.
    I personally wouldn`t have a problem with the jet sweep remaining as a part of our offense, just not as the central element that it appeared to be last year

  10. #9

    Re: How big of a jump can we realistically expect from Jalen?

    Quote Originally Posted by DrollTide View Post
    My biggest concern, which started late last year when it dawned on me, is that a significant portion of the completion percentage and yards were really "1-yard-pass" jet sweeps. They could just as well have been handoffs, like an end-around. The point is, this play was almost completely diagnosed and defeated by the defenses we played against at the end of the season.

    So I think (really, hope) the jet sweep is going away. This starts us at a lower baseline from last year, which means we are hoping for a bigger increment overall, into more of a "standard" passing game, with drop backs, play actions, and QB draws.
    That sweep is incredibly effective as long as the deep ball exists. Once the secondary knows the deep ball isn't a real threat, the jet sweep is DOA.

    If JH's deep ball is there this year, his numbers will explode (assuming a good OL, of course).
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    Re: How big of a jump can we realistically expect from Jalen?

    Quote Originally Posted by crimsonaudio View Post
    That sweep is incredibly effective as long as the deep ball exists. Once the secondary knows the deep ball isn't a real threat, the jet sweep is DOA.
    This ^. If corners stay close to receivers, jet sweep won't work. You've got to have some room to block, some room to run and more than anything, have their defense spread out.
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    Re: How big of a jump can we realistically expect from Jalen?

    This also only accounts for his passing ability. Jalen's passing ability will be tied intrinsically to his running ability. Any improvement at all in the passing game will also reap huge benefits in both his run game and that of his RB's.

    The one thing that graph (which is very useful) doesn't take into account is total offense generated by the QB - probably because McElroy and McCarron never ran the ball. So I think there's a chance that Jalen's passing numbers don't jump to massive numbers BUT I do expect more consistency and a higher QBR.

    Another thing that makes this difficult to predict is the fact that Daboll is taking this team back is hardcore pro-style roots (or at least that's the assumption). Having a change of scheme could have an unpredictable outcome on Jalen's passing and rushing figures.

    I don't need Jalen to pass for 3k yards, but I do think the team needs him to be a but more consistent reading the field and completing the ball and also a bit more consistent making teams respect the deep ball. We have all the weapons to hurt a team from behind the LOS or down the field, we just someone who can take advantage of both.
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    Re: How big of a jump can we realistically expect from Jalen?

    There are still jet sweep plays that work brilliantly - the fake to Ridley with the handoff to Henry against UT was amazing.

    If you follow Smart Football on twitter, he posted a clip last night of a misdirected jet sweep utilized by Oklahoma State that was just brilliant in its execution.


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    Re: How big of a jump can we realistically expect from Jalen?

    I don't think we end up losing as much of our 2016 offense as some might think. Seems like Daboll put the Spring emphasis on timing passing and the deep ball which were two of the three main deficiencies in Jalen's game last year. The third deficiency is passes between the hash marks but that was a deficiency by near omission within the gameplan. You can't be good at it if you never do it.


    At either rate, I think a lot of the horizontal stuff will stick around but if Jalen makes the jump I expect as a passer then it will not be used as much but may be more explosive.
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