Sidebar

Do we punt too much in football?

  • Bama Gymnastics @ NCAA Championship Semi-finals (ESPN2 | TONIGHT - 4/18 @ 8pm CT). We will have a game thread going in the Women's Sports board. Come join us!
J

JaxTider

Suspended
Jan 10, 2017
194
0
0
Forgive me if this is old news, but I haven't seen it...

Your on your on 20. It's 4th and 3. Do you punt? What about when your on the 50 and its 4th and 5? Or your on the opponents 10 and it's 4th and 5? Or your on the opponents 25 and it's 4th and 10?

What about when your on your own goal line and it's 4th and 2?

According to this analysis, you go for it in each case.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2618/3688516023_07450826e5_o.png

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/game-strategy/120-4th-down-study

Before you disregard this as nonsense, read the last two paragraphs about maintaining a lead, probability of winning and your own kicker and team's characteristics.

The math says we punt way to much, and it's probably due to two things. One, the coach guarding against the perception that he is reckless and irresponsible. Two, that it is a throwback to the days when offenses were weak and drives were rare.
 
Last edited:
4

4Q Basket Case

FB|BB Moderator
Staff member
Nov 8, 2004
9,615
13,007
237
Tuscaloosa
Re: Do we punt too way much in football?

This has come up occasionally. The numbers say most teams punt way too much.

There is (or was, anyway) a high school team in Texas that used this philosophy. They punted, but only in what most of us would consider no-brainer situations -- like 4th and 7 or more, inside their own 25.

It has the side effect of changing your playcalling on 3rd down. For example, if you know you're going for it on 4th, 3rd and, say, 6 or 7 is no longer a heavy passing down.

They were pretty successful with it.
 
J

JaxTider

Suspended
Jan 10, 2017
194
0
0
Re: Do we punt too way much in football?

I have always felt that punting on the opponents 40 yardline to probably pick up net 20 yards was stupid. But as they say, it really depends on the team you have.

As for going for it on your your own 2 yard line with 2 yards to go? That is something I probably could never do.
 
UntouchableCrew

UntouchableCrew

All-SEC
Nov 30, 2015
1,530
338
102
Re: Do we punt too way much in football?

I think in general teams punt too much but some of the examples you cited are silly, particularly if you have a good defense.

Like, Alabama going for it from their own goal line on 4th and 2 would be crazy. Whatever the likelihood that you make it if you don't you're basically giving points to a team you might have stopped cold.

Once you pass your own 40 punting makes less sense, and it certainly makes less sense in enemy territory. But really, it all depends on a variety of factors -- how good is your offense, how good is your defense, how good is your punter/coverage unit, etc.
 
Wilson Monroe

Wilson Monroe

1st Team
Jul 19, 2016
517
0
0
Re: Do we punt too way much in football?

It all comes down to a coach's embrace or aversion to risk. CNS takes very few risks beyond what is a traditional approach to likelihood of success. I recall a coach that took crazy risks all the time down on the bayou. He isn't there anymore.
 
T

teamplayer

Hall of Fame
Jul 31, 2001
7,584
2,357
282
cullman, al, usa
Re: Do we punt too way much in football?

I'm pretty sure it isn't possible to have 4th and 2 from your own goal line. :) However, I see the point in today's world of high powered offenses and rules that are skewed to help the offense. With our defense, though, I still think an extra 30-40 yards is beneficial. Not to mention, a failed 4th down attempt is normally a big momentum shift. Then again, if you're going for it on 4th all the time, that would probably not be as a big a deal.
 
J

JaxTider

Suspended
Jan 10, 2017
194
0
0
Re: Do we punt too way much in football?

UntouchableCrew said:
I think in general teams punt too much but some of the examples you cited are silly, particularly if you have a good defense.

Like, Alabama going for it from their own goal line on 4th and 2 would be crazy. Whatever the likelihood that you make it if you don't you're basically giving points to a team you might have stopped cold.

Once you pass your own 40 punting makes less sense, and it certainly makes less sense in enemy territory. But really, it all depends on a variety of factors -- how good is your offense, how good is your defense, how good is your punter/coverage unit, etc.
Click to expand...

Well the examples are based on the attached decision chart. Their not my recommendations. But supposedly, they take the probabilities into consideration.

For example, going for it your own two yard line seems very strange. But I'm sure the author is using data about the probability of success and expected value points in that drive, the probability of the failure and the expected value of points by the opponent, as well as the expectations of points by the opponent in the event of a punt.

So it isn't enough to just say "your giving the opponent points by going for it on your own two." You have to look at the stats of what happens when you go for it and make it, as well as when you don't make it on 4th, or when you punt.

And remember the number change based our team. If you have an incredible punter or kicker or offense or defense, the probabilities change. The examples cited are based on historical averages I'm sure.

But knowing that you would need to adjust your decision matrix based on the strength and weaknesses of your own team, doesn't change the basic principle
 
Last edited:
Bamabuzzard

Bamabuzzard

FB Moderator
Staff member
Aug 15, 2004
30,636
18,608
237
48
Where ever there's BBQ, Bourbon & Football
Re: Do we punt too way much in football?

Pardon me for potentially asking a "dumb" question. But are these statistics/probabilities derived from actual decisions and results over a period of time in college football only?

*Note: I cannot access the second link (I'm at work at that site is blocked) so my question maybe answered within the link I cannot access.
 
UntouchableCrew

UntouchableCrew

All-SEC
Nov 30, 2015
1,530
338
102
Re: Do we punt too way much in football?

JaxTider said:
Well the examples are based on the attached decision chart. Their not my recommendations. But supposedly, they take the probabilities into consideration.

For example, going for it your own two yard line seems very strange. But I'm sure the author is using data about the probability of success and expected value points in that drive, the probability of the failure and the expected value of points by the opponent, as well as the expectations of points by the opponent in the event of a punt.

So it isn't enough to just say "your giving the opponent points by going for it on your own two." You have to look at the stats of what happens when you go for it and make it, as well as when you don't make it on 4th, or when you punt.

And remember the number change based our team. If you have an incredible punter or kicker or offense or defense, the probabilities change. The examples cited are based on historical averages I'm sure.

But knowing that you would need to adjust your decision matrix based on the strength and weaknesses of your own team, doesn't change the basic principle
Click to expand...
I know, I didn't mean to accuse you of coming up with the circumstances. I just don't buy the math to be honest. How could the expected points added by converting inside your own five make sense relative to the automatic points you're giving up if you're stopped? You'd have to have a virtual guarantee of converting.

Of course, others have pointed out 4th and 2 from the 2 is essentially impossible... So I'll leave this to the mathematicians.
 
S

stlimprov

1st Team
Nov 9, 2005
969
205
67
54
Saint Louis, MO
There is an important question about sample sizes here, and it goes something like this:
There seems to be a clear finding that not punting gains advantage over a larger sample size. But does this larger sample size ever truly have the opportunity to go into effect in football? There are a limited number of games, and a limited number of drives.
Without looking, I assume there is some attempt at a control for this in the study. But a thoughtful coach would likely answer that he doesn't have the luxury of playing the overall odds, but has to play the small sample odds of expecting a game to come down to 1 or 2 decisions.
In addition to the aforementioned change in 3rd down philosophy, there are also the secondary effects of moral: players (claim to) tend to like to play brave. But on the flip side, coaches are on a short leash, and failing within convention tends to be a lot more forgiving than failing outside of it, regardless of logic.
 
selmaborntidefan

selmaborntidefan

TideFans Legend
Mar 31, 2000
36,432
29,736
287
54
Well, we went for a field goal on November 30, 2013 from 57 yards......


In all probability teams punt too much. I'd like to see the PAT done away with and mandate 2-point plays. Fewer ties that lead to three OT games.
 
U

uaintn

All-American
Aug 2, 2000
2,904
192
182
franklin, tennessee, usa
First, I think the answers are probably different at different levels -- NFL stats probably aren't all that instructive for, say, 2A high school football. USA probably ought to take more risks than, say, Ohio State.

Second, depends on the abilities of the other team's place kicker and punter, as well as how likely your offense is to go on sustained drives against the other team's defense. That varies widely from game to game. I personally think that teams, especially underdogs, are probably too risk averse when it comes to going for fourth down conversions. I'll include in that attempting too many field goals and from too far out. But I think going for it as often as this study suggests is looney tunes.

Third, I'm old school because I am old and have been known to suggest aloud that we quick-kick on third down (as recently as last season), so this guy would probably really not like me. Fortunately, my apparent belief that the coaching staff can hear me from my easy chair is unfounded.
 
R

Redwood Forrest

Hall of Fame
Sep 19, 2003
11,046
913
237
77
Boaz, AL USA
Re: Do we punt too way much in football?

JaxTider said:
I have always felt that punting on the opponents 40 yardline to probably pick up net 20 yards was stupid. But as they say, it really depends on the team you have.

As for going for it on your your own 2 yard line with 2 yards to go? That is something I probably could never do.
Click to expand...
I agree. Rather than give the opponent the ball on the 20 I would have went for it. It seems most of the time the ball goes into the end zone.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

New Posts

Latest threads

TideFans.shop - NEW Stuff!

TideFans.shop - Get YOUR Bama Gear HERE!”></a> <br /> <!--/ END TideFans.shop & item link \--> <p style= Purchases made through our TideFans.shop and Amazon.com links may result in a commission being paid to TideFans.

Top Bottom