Forgive me if this is old news, but I haven't seen it...
Your on your on 20. It's 4th and 3. Do you punt? What about when your on the 50 and its 4th and 5? Or your on the opponents 10 and it's 4th and 5? Or your on the opponents 25 and it's 4th and 10?
What about when your on your own goal line and it's 4th and 2?
According to this analysis, you go for it in each case.
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2618/3688516023_07450826e5_o.png
http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/game-strategy/120-4th-down-study
Before you disregard this as nonsense, read the last two paragraphs about maintaining a lead, probability of winning and your own kicker and team's characteristics.
The math says we punt way to much, and it's probably due to two things. One, the coach guarding against the perception that he is reckless and irresponsible. Two, that it is a throwback to the days when offenses were weak and drives were rare.
Your on your on 20. It's 4th and 3. Do you punt? What about when your on the 50 and its 4th and 5? Or your on the opponents 10 and it's 4th and 5? Or your on the opponents 25 and it's 4th and 10?
What about when your on your own goal line and it's 4th and 2?
According to this analysis, you go for it in each case.
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2618/3688516023_07450826e5_o.png
http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/game-strategy/120-4th-down-study
Before you disregard this as nonsense, read the last two paragraphs about maintaining a lead, probability of winning and your own kicker and team's characteristics.
The math says we punt way to much, and it's probably due to two things. One, the coach guarding against the perception that he is reckless and irresponsible. Two, that it is a throwback to the days when offenses were weak and drives were rare.
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