Is Hegemonic War inevitable in the era of nuclear weapons ?

81usaf92

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I came across this article to see what others thought of Gilpin's theory of hegemonic stability, and I found this article.

https://policytensor.com/2013/02/25/theory-of-hegemonic-war/

For those unfamiliar with Gilpin, here is what he has to say about hegemonic stability:

Robert Gilpin

The conclusion of one hegemonic war is the beginning of another cycle of growth, expansion, and eventual decline. The law of uneven growth continues to redistribute power, thus undermining the status quo established by the last hegemonic struggle. It has always been thus and always will be, until men either destroy themselves or learn to develop an effective mechanism of peaceful change.

My question is more centered around "Is the realist view of war more correct than the liberal?" and more importantly " are these wars a thing of the past with nuclear weapons.". Keep in mind Gilpin wrote this idea in 1988, so he is well aware of the effect that nuclear weapons have on international relations. Realist, like Gilpin believe a hegemonic cycle continues forever. In this cycle in which a new hegemon wins a war, then dictates the new world order, then sets up institutions to try to preserve the hegemonic status, and then has to fight off the new challenger.

If the hegemonic stability theory is true then we are in the third phase right now in making institutions. Gilpin and many other realists believe in the concept of "hard power" in which the hegemon invest mostly in its military. You can see this clearly with the US. They also argue that despite any attempt made to prevent the inevitable decline, they will indeed decline. The liberal ideal differs at this one stage. They tend to believe in a global hegemony in which all will share in the global democratic enterprise.

Here is Haut's definition:
‘The “West’s” hegemonic desire is made plain by the grandiose claim that liberal capitalist democratic society would be “the end of history”’. (Haut, 2010:200)
But a realist would probably point out that the British hegemony from 1763-1940 also tried the route of a global enterprise with free trade, but only accomplished in strengthening the German and American states in the process by doing so.

Then a liberal thinker would probably say that interstate war is a thing in the past with nuclear weapons, but the article has this to say:

No dominant state in history has ever relinquished its power position without a fight and no rising hegemon has ever established itself as the dominant state in the international order without fighting and winning a hegemonic war. There is no reason to believe that we have somehow passed into post-history because of some ideational revolution in human consciousness.
Thoughts?
 
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Tidewater

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A more serious response this time.
Yes, hegemons do not part with their hegemonic power peacefully.
There are a lot more people around today who believe in multipolarity than there were at the start of the last world war. In 1939, it really was realism and even organic realism (nation-states are like organisms, they have to grow to be vibrant; they are either growing or dying). Nowadays, there are a lot more people who believe in multipolarity and are will to baxck that belief up with force if need be.

Plus, there are a lot of people scared to death of nuclear weapons (although some Russians still talk about the de-escalatory use of nuclear weapons, which is pretty scary).

Third, there are a lot of Americans, like myself, who love their country but could not care less how other people around the world order their societies. You want to be communist? Fine. You want to cut your daughters' clitoruses out? I wouldn't advise it, but whatever. Not my call. You want to hurl gay men off the roofs of tall buildings, again, I wouldn’t advise it, but just don't try to throw American gay men off the roof. You've got a brutal dictator running your country? That's too bad. When you grow up as a society, you'll send him packing, but probably not before. I do not see much support for going abroad and "making the world safe for democracy" these days, at least not against near-peer competitors. Anybody who seriously advocated invading Russia or trying to overthrow the Chinese communist party to force "democracy" on either of those countries would be looked at like he had a phallus growing out of his forehead.

On balance, I'd say that the chances of a peaceful transition of hegemons are better now than at any time since dawn of civilization. Doesn't mean it will happen, just it has a better chance now.
 

pcfixup

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There are several forces at play that will eventually cause WWIII
  • Overpopulation
  • Economic inequality
  • Gender Imbalance
  • Religious Fundamentalism
We are in The Thucydides Trap with both China and Islam.
 

Tidewater

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This symbiotic relationship cannot last forever. At some point the U.S. will stop growing (prob soon) and the debt will become unsustainable.
Good point. We need to run $500,000,000,000 surpluses for 38 years to pay off the debt we have already undertaken (in other words, tax $1 trillion more per year or spend $1 trillion less, or some combination of the two). There is pretty much zero possibility in the current state of DC affairs of running half a trillion dollar surplus for one year, much less 38 years.
Democrats are frantically searching for more things to spend money on and Republicans keep talking about tax cuts.
When this bubble bursts (and I'm sure it will eventually), the instability unleashed is going to shake the world to its core and the Star Trek fictional total for WW III dead (600 million) is not beyond the realm of possibility.
 

pcfixup

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Good point. We need to run $500,000,000,000 surpluses for 38 years to pay off the debt we have already undertaken (in other words, tax $1 trillion more per year or spend $1 trillion less, or some combination of the two). There is pretty much zero possibility in the current state of DC affairs of running half a trillion dollar surplus for one year, much less 38 years.
Democrats are frantically searching for more things to spend money on and Republicans keep talking about tax cuts.
When this bubble bursts (and I'm sure it will eventually), the instability unleashed is going to shake the world to its core and the Star Trek fictional total for WW III dead (600 million) is not beyond the realm of possibility.
At some point the entire social contract will have to be re-written. Wouldn't we have been better off if Norman Borlaug had failed?
 

crimsonaudio

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Good point. We need to run $500,000,000,000 surpluses for 38 years to pay off the debt we have already undertaken (in other words, tax $1 trillion more per year or spend $1 trillion less, or some combination of the two). There is pretty much zero possibility in the current state of DC affairs of running half a trillion dollar surplus for one year, much less 38 years.
But the reality is it's just as much MAD as nuclear war - if the US just decided tomorrow that all their debt to China was 'forgiven' and we would never repay a dime, the damage to our economy would be be awful, but the Chinese economy would likely be destroyed. It will likely be decades before the Chinese could absorb a US default on our debt, so they had to help us keep everything human along.

As long as it's symbiotic relationship, we can survive. If China ever gets to the point they can absorb a US default, we lose.
 

uafanataum

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But the reality is it's just as much MAD as nuclear war - if the US just decided tomorrow that all their debt to China was 'forgiven' and we would never repay a dime, the damage to our economy would be be awful, but the Chinese economy would likely be destroyed. It will likely be decades before the Chinese could absorb a US default on our debt, so they had to help us keep everything human along.

As long as it's symbiotic relationship, we can survive. If China ever gets to the point they can absorb a US default, we lose.
The thing is we keep feeding this relationship in that direction. What if we decide to switch course? It would be painful and slow but what if we made it so that they were not the be all end all but rather a small piece
 

Tide1986

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There are several forces at play that will eventually cause WWIII
  • Overpopulation
  • Economic inequality
  • Gender Imbalance
  • Religious Fundamentalism
We are in The Thucydides Trap with both China and Islam.
#1 I totally get.
#4 seems plausible, but I'm not convinced.

#2 and #3 I really don't see being causes.
 

Tidewater

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But the reality is it's just as much MAD as nuclear war - if the US just decided tomorrow that all their debt to China was 'forgiven' and we would never repay a dime, the damage to our economy would be be awful, but the Chinese economy would likely be destroyed. It will likely be decades before the Chinese could absorb a US default on our debt, so they had to help us keep everything human along.

As long as it's symbiotic relationship, we can survive. If China ever gets to the point they can absorb a US default, we lose.
I believe the more likely eventuality will be that the Chinese (and every other creditor) decides that the US is no longer good for the debt already incurred. Then the interest rates the Federal government will have to pay will climb astronomically, and the US will be screwed.
In FY 2016, the US spent $241 billion just to service the debt already contracted. The prime rate reached 20% in March of 1980. If we see that interest rate again, servicing existing debt could become the number one budget item.
Plus, if the market senses that the Chinese are getting rid of their US debt, others will drop the US like a hot potato, pushing interest rates up even further. Like all bubbles, the correction will strike suddenly and be severe.
 

uafanataum

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I believe the more likely eventuality will be that the Chinese (and every other creditor) decides that the US is no longer good for the debt already incurred. Then the interest rates the Federal government will have to pay will climb astronomically, and the US will be screwed.
In FY 2016, the US spent $241 billion just to service the debt already contracted. The prime rate reached 20% in March of 1980. If we see that interest rate again, servicing existing debt could become the number one budget item.
Plus, if the market senses that the Chinese are getting rid of their US debt, others will drop the US like a hot potato, pushing interest rates up even further. Like all bubbles, the correction will strike suddenly and be severe.
In 1980 the u.s. made it's way through that harsh time and emerged victorious. Wht can we not win this time
 

Tidewater

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In 1980 the u.s. made it's way through that harsh time and emerged victorious. Wht can we not win this time
I don't know. One significant difference between 1980 and today is the level of US debt. Federal debt in 1980 was just shy of $1 trillion (actually $908 billion, or 31% debt/GDP ratio).
Today, is is pushing $20 trillion (105% debt/GDP ratio). A lot of the wiggle room we had in 1980 is now gone. US debt increased by $1.42 trillion in FY 2016.
 

Tidewater

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Article in Foreign Affairs by Virginia's junior carpetbagger senator, Tim Kaine.
Not a bad article, once he gets done slinging snot for losing in November.
A New Truman Doctrine: Grand Strategy in a Hyperconnected World
I would style Kaine's approach as a "Democratic Realist" approach.

Tim Kaine said:
A United States justifiably outraged at the efforts of Russian President Vladimir Putin to affect the outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election has no right to decide who should lead other countries.
Not bad. Worth a read.

Still, I wish he would go home.
 

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