Article - This is how Big Oil will die
- Thread starter TideEngineer08
- Start date
TW is correct. Why drill for it, when there's no use for it? The first to go will be the Canadian tar sands, not at all a bad thing for the environment...
As long as there are jets to fly and trucks and trains operating that won't happen.
Just to clarify, when oil is refined it breaks down and is used for different things. You can't get just diesel or gasoline or anything else. I suppose any unused product could be used in another way or dumped back into the ground but that would be a disaster. I just can't see getting away from oil altogether.
Let me clarify. The current daily global oil production is not an on/off switch. Not all oil wells are equally productive. As demand drops off, less economical wells will be capped and more viable wells will continue pumping. As demand drops off again, the process repeats itself, that "invisible hand" thing Adam Smith talked about.
But you are correct, airplanes and trains will keep demand at a certain point for a long time, even as global demand drops.
TW is correct. There's no "unused product" to amount to anything around. Wells are just taken out of service. Some marginal wells have been taken in and out of service many times over the years...
Yes, it will. It's happened before, many times, and it'll happen again. Are you laboring under the impression that, once a well is opened, it just runs like a faucet which can't be turned off? Believe me, it can...
If we can, in the future, make alternative energy for a lower effective price than we can extract oil ourselves but not as low as say, Saudi Arabia, will we have the political will to cut off the Saudi's and stop funding both sides of the war on terror?
The global oil market behaving as it does, there's no practical way to "cut off the Saudis."
But wouldn't it be beneficial to us from a national security/foreign policy/economy standpoint to become as energy independent as possible, considering the cheapest oil comes from the most hostile sources?
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it depends on the costs , not just the monetary ones ... The question is to what extent do our oil purchases fund that side of the war on terror ?
The real problem is that electricity isn't a direct replacement for petroleum fuels, which act as both storage medium and energy - the electricity has to be generated somewhere.
I do think big oil's days are numbers, but believe it's more likely come from nuclear - and I believe the future lies in small, localized Liquid fluoride thorium reactors.
We can even use LFTRs to create clean fuel for internal combustion engines...
I do think big oil's days are numbers, but believe it's more likely come from nuclear - and I believe the future lies in small, localized Liquid fluoride thorium reactors.
We can even use LFTRs to create clean fuel for internal combustion engines...
There is only one problem with the electric cars. Battery life. Just think about what happens with your cordless drills. You pay what seems like a decent price then the battery dies and you feel like you are paying through the nose for a little battery. The battery for motorized vehicle are so far extremely expensive and not easily changed. I could be wrong but I don't see it in my lifetime and after that I'll let the ones left figure it out. It was an interesting read but I just don't agree with the time frame or if it will even happen. I'm waiting to see what happens when at year five you r car is a throw away item because the batteries are shot.
Battery tech is leaping forward almost daily, it's like Moore's law for computing power. I'm betting that within a decade we have much lighter, far more powerful, and far longer lasting battery tech. Demand drives innovation.
The international oil market is very complex. All of the companies are international and they mix and match oil on the world market constantly. There's just no practical nor legal way to put up big signs at the coasts saying "No Tankers Allowed with any Saudi Oil Content."
My thoughts are more along the lines of :
Low oil price = less $ for Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia
High US Demand -> High Oil Price
Low US Demand -> Low Oil Price
In the future India and China will be the main demanders but if we were able to reduce our consumption to no more than what we produced, we could crater the market and diminish the power of the first three big oil producers that are throwing their weight around.
Low oil price = less $ for Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia
High US Demand -> High Oil Price
Low US Demand -> Low Oil Price
In the future India and China will be the main demanders but if we were able to reduce our consumption to no more than what we produced, we could crater the market and diminish the power of the first three big oil producers that are throwing their weight around.
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