Just my 2 cents - and again, just my opinion and no one has to agree, ok?
But I think its very unlikely that Dabo Swinney is ever the HC at Alabama, barring unforeseen circumstances (such as a tragedy or other "act of God" that drastically changes the status quo).
And I say that as a FAN of Dabo Swinney!!! I've pulled for the guy since he was a walkon at UA when I was in Grad School, and that was before I'd ever heard the amazing story of the obstacles he overcame just to GET to Alabama in the first place. I'm NOT down on Dabo, I think he's a Great person, a great recruiter, and a very good coach, ok?
But here's the deal.
Nick Saban is not a young man, but he's in excellent health for his age. Barring the unforeseen, I think he's likely going to coach at least another 4-6 years, if not longer, but I think it would be risky to count on more than maybe about 5 more season after 2017. He will be 70 in 5 years, and how far he goes beyond 70 is anyone's guess.
But in the next 4-6 years, Dabo will Either Keep winning at more-or-less the same level, or he won't. (Just as an aside, Personally, I don't see his style working in the NFL, and I don't perceive he has any interest in the NFL, so I don't think its likely he takes an NFL job, but you never know....).
So, what happens if stays at Clempson but he Fails to keep winning at about the same level as the past 3-4 years? Lets assume he goes the next 5 years without making it to the P_ayoffs. Five years from now, in our "
What-have-you-done-for-me-lately" culture, the glory of 2015 and '16 will be a faint memory. "Assuming" the hiring process isn't hijacked again the way it was in 1986, Dabo (in this hypothetical) probably Won't be a prime candidate to replace Nick Saban.
So - what if he keeps winning at the same general level? Lets say he makes the P_ayoffs more often than not the next ~5 years. IF that happens, odds are pretty good that he will get out of the semi's and play in the title game more than once, and if THAT happens, odds are pretty good that he wins at least one more title. He's already a living legend at Clempson - if he wins one (or more) further Titles, he will easily be the "Paul Bryant" of Clempson. There will be statues of him on their campus and streets and buildings named for him. At least two of his three kids will be current students or Grad's of Clempson. The ties there will be stronger than some of us might think.
Some may not realize that Clempson is a large school with significant assets. The reality is, in this hypothetical, Clempson WILL have the motivation AND THE RESOURCES to meet and beat ANY possible financial offer UA could make. So there will never be a financial benefit to him leaving.
I know its a big deal when "Mama Calls" - but reality is, in this situation, he will have the security of a Frank Beamer or Bill Snyder in the twilight of their careers. Dabo would have near 100% job security even if he goes 7-6 his last 5 years at Clempson.
At Alabama? Dabo knows full well that he'd be CONSTANTLY Compared to Bryant and Saban, and his margin for Error would be ZERO. Miss the P_ayoffs a few times at Clempson? Not really a problem. Miss the P_ayoffs twice in a row at UA? There would be loud and serious calls for his firing.
Yes, "Never say never" - and things often change greatly from what we expect them to be. But IMO, Dabo to UA is not as clear cut a case as some people think it is, "IMO".....