A Stat Worth Remembering When Discussing Wins and Losses

RTR91

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Saban talks about how games are decided by 3-4 plays a game. We see it in the close games, but the big lopsided ones can also be decided by only a few plays.

And those few plays can have a much larger impact than just that one game (from SB Nation's Bill Connelly)...

 

BamaMoon

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I disagree! All those three and outs in the championship game last year had nothing to do with us losing the game!
 

B1GTide

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Saw an interesting stat on the SECN the other day - the top 4 teams in turnover margin this year are all still undefeated at the mid-way point in the season.
 

theballguy

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I wonder what the percentage of games when Matt Austin is officiating are determined by one 'bad call'
Hah hah I hear you. A year or 2 ago, I would have defended him but last 3 games I have watched with him referee-ing have been pretty bad. This last game (aTm), the calls were generally ok but those weren't the problem. The problem he and his crew seemed to have is that they miss a LOT of calls. We did amazingly well sacking Mond like we did and the score could have been somewhat lopsided and a lot less close if not for that.
 

Bamabuzzard

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Just look at the aTm game. We're driving up 24-3. If Robert Foster doesn't fumble the ball and we drive down and score 7. I highly doubt that game gets to 27-19. I think one play can be a gateway to other plays happening that never would have happened. It's why in a lot of games that have a sudden shift in direction, you hear post game comments like "The turning point of this game was..." and they point to one maybe two plays.
 

Pilot172000

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Just look at the aTm game. We're driving up 24-3. If Robert Foster doesn't fumble the ball and we drive down and score 7. I highly doubt that game gets to 27-19. I think one play can be a gateway to other plays happening that never would have happened. It's why in a lot of games that have a sudden shift in direction, you hear post game comments like "The turning point of this game was..." and they point to one maybe two plays.
I don't think I was madder about anything more than that fumble. We were spotless and it ruined it!! We were moving too!!
 

BamaMoon

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Just look at the aTm game. We're driving up 24-3. If Robert Foster doesn't fumble the ball and we drive down and score 7. I highly doubt that game gets to 27-19. I think one play can be a gateway to other plays happening that never would have happened. It's why in a lot of games that have a sudden shift in direction, you hear post game comments like "The turning point of this game was..." and they point to one maybe two plays.
Not to mention if we go down and score then, not only do we make a comeback nearly impossible, but our first teamers probably go to the bench where they can't be injured and second and third teamers get valuable experience.

I don't know when Tony Brown was injured, but I thought it was late in the game.
 

TomFromBama

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Just look at the aTm game. We're driving up 24-3. If Robert Foster doesn't fumble the ball and we drive down and score 7. I highly doubt that game gets to 27-19. I think one play can be a gateway to other plays happening that never would have happened. It's why in a lot of games that have a sudden shift in direction, you hear post game comments like "The turning point of this game was..." and they point to one maybe two plays.
I agree about the aTm game - agree completely.

And FWIW, I don't think its necessarily the case in all games. There's a comment above about all the 3-and-outs in the NC game - and there were a LOT! If memory serves we were 2/15 on 3rd down in that game and both of the successful conversions came in the FIRST QUARTER...... couldn't complete a pass beyond the LOS to save our lives......

But think of all the MANY, Many games were one play or just a handful of plays seemed to totally change momentum, and eventually change the apparent outcome.

2010 - we were absolute ROUTING the booger-eaters - they couldn't BUY a first down (they bought a QB, but couldn't buy a first down). Mark Ingram is running loose headed for a TD that would have given us an Insurmountable lead. (I think we were up something like 24-0 at the time?) The ball is stripped from behind, and from that point forward we never again score a TD Or even mount a sustained drive!! aubarn roar$ back from the aby$$. Game Over.

2011 - we are going toe-to-toe with the Consensus #1 team in America, LSU - a Juggernaut that's already beaten the eventual champions of TWO other major conferences. We can't buy a FG or a TD. And Coach Mac (bless his heart) is running gadget plays EVERY @#$% TIME we get near the Red-Zone. He calls a halfback pass and our TE and a corndog DB both go up for the ball and both land on the ground, both holding the ball. Once on the ground the DB alertly wrestles the ball away from our TE, and the refs help out by wrongly calling it an Interception. Had the ref's not blown the call, we have the ball inside the 5 yard line (if memory serves) and even if we can't punch it in, its a chip shot FG that we almost certainly make and win the game. One Play. We eventually lose in OT when we miss our FIFTH FG attempt of the night.....

2012 - We show up at B-D sleep walking and still in a daze from the emotional last minute win at LSu the week prior. aTm comes out guns blazing and our dazed defense has no answers..... At first. Key play #1 - Johnny Sleazeball fields a snap that ricochets off his helmet, then tosses an unlikely TD to a wide open TE to take a 20-0? lead. Key Play #2 - AJ McCarron suffers a concussion on a hard hit on a QB Keeper at the 3 yard line, but the coaches don't realize it, and he stays in the game. The next play, which might have been the go-ahead TD with very little time left - he throws an INT. Game Over.

2014 - Drake's gruesome leg injury at Ole Mess. Our guys never seemed to get totally back on track after that.

2015. Deja vu from 2012. In a Mazeil-worthy stroke of luck, Old Mess scores a TD on an improbably pass that bounces off their QB, then off an OM WR, then into the hands of another OM receiver running in full stride. But we are still mounting a furious comeback - until we throw an Interception. Game Over.
 

TampaTide813

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Just look at the aTm game. We're driving up 24-3. If Robert Foster doesn't fumble the ball and we drive down and score 7. I highly doubt that game gets to 27-19. I think one play can be a gateway to other plays happening that never would have happened. It's why in a lot of games that have a sudden shift in direction, you hear post game comments like "The turning point of this game was..." and they point to one maybe two plays.
I think that series was one of the worst I've ever seen for a wide receiver.

1st and 10 - Foster is wide open for a TD, Jalen throws a pretty good pass but Foster loses the ball in the air and doesn't even make a play on it. Penalty - ineligible receiver down field, TE covered by WR (WR out of position is Foster).

1st and 15 - run for 3 yards

2nd and 12 - Foster drops a pass that hits him in the gut, very near the 1st down marker.

3rd and 12 - Foster catches a short pass and promptly fumbles for the 1st turnover of the season.

Momentum shifts and aTm gives us much more of a game than we wanted at the end.

I hope CNS and staff are able to get/keep him focused. When Ridley isn't on the field he is the go-to guy and leader. He has to be able to maintain his cool, help out the younger WRs and catch/hold on to the ball.

Sent from my LGLS755 using Tapatalk
 
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