This is going to be my only post in this thread because I've already stated my opinion about Jalen in the 36,000 other threads that have been started about him. I will simply say these few words--I have never seen one individual Bama player so over critiqued, over scrutinized, over criticized, and under appreciated. That simple. Roll Tide!
Why isn't Jalen on more top QB lists this year?
- Thread starter RT27
- Start date
Long story short the answer to the original thread question is.....'stats'. Top QB, RB, and WR lists for the most part read like a fantasy football list of who is the most productive.
Imo for the QB position the 3 most important categories in college ultimately are Total Yards, Total TD's responsible for, and INT's. Let's look at JUST the SEC for those right now:
Total Yards
1) Shea Patterson - 2,243 (2,259 passing 260 Att's / -16 rushing 47 Att's) 7 games
2) Drew Lock - 2,207 (2,190 passing 233 Att's / 17 rushing 17 Att's) 7 games
3) Jarrett Stidham - 1,803 (1,728 passing 193 Att's / 75 rushing 54 Att's) 8 games
4) Jalen Hurts - 1,795 (1,223 passing 150 Att's / 572 rushing 84 Att's) 8 games
5) Nick Fitzgerald - 1,740 (1,179 passing 188 Att's / 561 rushing 81 Att's) 7 games
Total TD's Responsible for
1) Drew Lock - 24 TD's (23 passing, 1 rushing) 7 games
2) Nick Fitzgerald - 20 TD's (11 passing, 9 rushing) 7 games
3) Shea Patterson - 18 TD's (17 passing, -1 rushing) 7 games
4) Kyle Shurmur - 16 TD's (14 passing, 2 rushing) 7 games
5) Jalen Hurts - 15 TD's (9 passing, 6 rushing) 8 games
Passing INT's (We have 4 common QB's in both lists above 2 others, so I will just list their SEC Rank here)
1) Jalen Hurts - 1 INT's (1st in the SEC) 8 games
2) Kyle Shurmur - 2 INT's (2nd in the SEC) 7 games
3) Jarrett Stidham - 3 INT's (6th in the SEC) 8 games
4) Nick Fitzgerald - 7 INT's (12th in the SEC) 7 games
5) Drew Lock - 8 INT's (13th in the SEC) 7 games
5) Shea Patterson - 9 INT's (14th in the SEC) 7 games
I tried to make that as clean as possible so hopefully it's easy to read format wise.
What stands out right off the bat is that Jalen has less overall combined Attempts Throwing and Running than everyone else and has played 1 more game than everyone except Stidham. But I expected that since Jalen has been able to leave games early with big leads often. The other QB's are for the most part playing full games every week.
So you can clearly see that without fudging any numbers Jalen is Top 4-5 in the SEC in positive yardage and scoring production and #1 in negative turnover prevention.
But I'll play a what-if scenario and give him Tua's Attempts and see what happens. But I'm going to alter the stats based on Jalen's completion %, Yards per attempt, and TD's per Attempt instead of Tua's ( that sounds complicated but bear with me)
Tua is 28 of 42 for 385 yards and 5TD's. That's a 66.7% Comp% and 9.2 Y/A and 11% TD to Attempt (1 TD for every 8.4 Throws)
Tua has 12 rushing Att's for 95 yards and 2 TD's. That's 7.9 YPC and 16% TD to Carry (1 TD for every 6 carries)
Jalen has a 62.9% comp% and his Y/A is 8.1 and he has a 6% TD to Attempt (1 TD for every 16.7 Throws)
Jalen has 85 rushes for 571 yards and 6 TD's. That's 6.7 YPC and he has a 7% TD to Carry (1 TD for every 14 carries)
Jalen Hurts w/ extra touches: 26 for 42 for 340 yards passing 3 TD's (round up from 2.5) / 12 rushes for 81 yards 1 TD (round up from 0.8)
So finally if I add those hypothetical stats to Jalen's actual touches THIS would be his numbers if he NEVER missed a snap....
Jalen Hurts: 121 for 193 at 62.9% for 1,563 yards and 12 TD's / 97 rushes for 652 yards and 7 TD's (2,215 Total Yards 19 Total TD's)
That would put him at #2 behind only Shea Patterson(who STILL has more touches) for Total Yards and #3 in Total TD's behind only Lock and Fitzgerald.
No matter which way you slice it he's Top 4 in the SEC. Give him the Touches and he's Top 2-3. But I'll end on this.....
He's #1 in NOT turning the ball over. He's right there with Patterson, Lock and Fitzgerald in production while they are 12th, 13th, and 14th in giving the ball away.
They or anyone else can get the praise. Give me Jalen Hurts and we most likely have a SEC Title/NC......give me the other guys and we're in a meaningless bowl game with 1-2 losses.
Imo for the QB position the 3 most important categories in college ultimately are Total Yards, Total TD's responsible for, and INT's. Let's look at JUST the SEC for those right now:
Total Yards
1) Shea Patterson - 2,243 (2,259 passing 260 Att's / -16 rushing 47 Att's) 7 games
2) Drew Lock - 2,207 (2,190 passing 233 Att's / 17 rushing 17 Att's) 7 games
3) Jarrett Stidham - 1,803 (1,728 passing 193 Att's / 75 rushing 54 Att's) 8 games
4) Jalen Hurts - 1,795 (1,223 passing 150 Att's / 572 rushing 84 Att's) 8 games
5) Nick Fitzgerald - 1,740 (1,179 passing 188 Att's / 561 rushing 81 Att's) 7 games
Total TD's Responsible for
1) Drew Lock - 24 TD's (23 passing, 1 rushing) 7 games
2) Nick Fitzgerald - 20 TD's (11 passing, 9 rushing) 7 games
3) Shea Patterson - 18 TD's (17 passing, -1 rushing) 7 games
4) Kyle Shurmur - 16 TD's (14 passing, 2 rushing) 7 games
5) Jalen Hurts - 15 TD's (9 passing, 6 rushing) 8 games
Passing INT's (We have 4 common QB's in both lists above 2 others, so I will just list their SEC Rank here)
1) Jalen Hurts - 1 INT's (1st in the SEC) 8 games
2) Kyle Shurmur - 2 INT's (2nd in the SEC) 7 games
3) Jarrett Stidham - 3 INT's (6th in the SEC) 8 games
4) Nick Fitzgerald - 7 INT's (12th in the SEC) 7 games
5) Drew Lock - 8 INT's (13th in the SEC) 7 games
5) Shea Patterson - 9 INT's (14th in the SEC) 7 games
I tried to make that as clean as possible so hopefully it's easy to read format wise.
What stands out right off the bat is that Jalen has less overall combined Attempts Throwing and Running than everyone else and has played 1 more game than everyone except Stidham. But I expected that since Jalen has been able to leave games early with big leads often. The other QB's are for the most part playing full games every week.
So you can clearly see that without fudging any numbers Jalen is Top 4-5 in the SEC in positive yardage and scoring production and #1 in negative turnover prevention.
But I'll play a what-if scenario and give him Tua's Attempts and see what happens. But I'm going to alter the stats based on Jalen's completion %, Yards per attempt, and TD's per Attempt instead of Tua's ( that sounds complicated but bear with me)
Tua is 28 of 42 for 385 yards and 5TD's. That's a 66.7% Comp% and 9.2 Y/A and 11% TD to Attempt (1 TD for every 8.4 Throws)
Tua has 12 rushing Att's for 95 yards and 2 TD's. That's 7.9 YPC and 16% TD to Carry (1 TD for every 6 carries)
Jalen has a 62.9% comp% and his Y/A is 8.1 and he has a 6% TD to Attempt (1 TD for every 16.7 Throws)
Jalen has 85 rushes for 571 yards and 6 TD's. That's 6.7 YPC and he has a 7% TD to Carry (1 TD for every 14 carries)
Jalen Hurts w/ extra touches: 26 for 42 for 340 yards passing 3 TD's (round up from 2.5) / 12 rushes for 81 yards 1 TD (round up from 0.8)
So finally if I add those hypothetical stats to Jalen's actual touches THIS would be his numbers if he NEVER missed a snap....
Jalen Hurts: 121 for 193 at 62.9% for 1,563 yards and 12 TD's / 97 rushes for 652 yards and 7 TD's (2,215 Total Yards 19 Total TD's)
That would put him at #2 behind only Shea Patterson(who STILL has more touches) for Total Yards and #3 in Total TD's behind only Lock and Fitzgerald.
No matter which way you slice it he's Top 4 in the SEC. Give him the Touches and he's Top 2-3. But I'll end on this.....
He's #1 in NOT turning the ball over. He's right there with Patterson, Lock and Fitzgerald in production while they are 12th, 13th, and 14th in giving the ball away.
They or anyone else can get the praise. Give me Jalen Hurts and we most likely have a SEC Title/NC......give me the other guys and we're in a meaningless bowl game with 1-2 losses.
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Jalen's passing has improved significantly during the off-season and during this season. And I have no reason to think he won't continue to improve. He's a smart kid, a very hard worker, has a great work ethic, is very coachable, and humble to boot. You couldn't ask for a better student. But he is not and probably won't ever be as good a passer as Tua. There are throwers and there are passers and Tua is a passer. He has great vision, a quick release, a strong arm, and he's incredibly accurate. IMHO, Tua is the best natural passer we've had at Bama in a long, long time - perhaps going back to Stabler and Namath.
But that doesn't mean he should be the starting QB. There are other intangibles that are necessary - namely leadership, experience, and the support of the team, not to mention talent. Jalen has those things. I think Tua does, as well. He just lacks experience and perhaps maturity.
But I trust Coach Saban and the staff. They are a better judge of talent than I am. And they're with these kids every day. They see what they do in the weight room and how they perform at practice and what they see in film study and how the team reacts their leadership and how they react to adversity and all those things. So I won't begin to say Tua should be the starting QB. But I will say I can't wait to see how both of these young men develop. I think we're very blessed to have both of them and I'm thrilled to see that they both appear be team players who support each other and don't allow their egos to cause problems for the team.
But that doesn't mean he should be the starting QB. There are other intangibles that are necessary - namely leadership, experience, and the support of the team, not to mention talent. Jalen has those things. I think Tua does, as well. He just lacks experience and perhaps maturity.
But I trust Coach Saban and the staff. They are a better judge of talent than I am. And they're with these kids every day. They see what they do in the weight room and how they perform at practice and what they see in film study and how the team reacts their leadership and how they react to adversity and all those things. So I won't begin to say Tua should be the starting QB. But I will say I can't wait to see how both of these young men develop. I think we're very blessed to have both of them and I'm thrilled to see that they both appear be team players who support each other and don't allow their egos to cause problems for the team.
I watched the replay also and the passes over the middle were very well thrown and something that we didn’t see last year. If Jalen keeps progressing, he will be a very good passing QB.
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Simple answer: Those lists are stats-driven. Hurts isn't going to be a big personal numbers guy in our system.
Not many i would trade him for . . . maybe none.
Not many i would trade him for . . . maybe none.
Too soon to say that. we're in first year offense under Daboll. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hurts throwing more down the road.
Fromm, Etling, Lock, Patterson and Stidham all rank higher than Hurts in passing efficiency YTD.
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/8
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/8
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Anyone who doesn't see that Jalen's passing game has progressed significantly since last season simply doesn't want to see it.
Don't mean nothing. Patterson, Lock, Stidham Look at their completions/ attempts and their interceptions and compare to Hurts.
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