Bama odds against every Top 10 team

The only one surprising in UGA. -14 is a lot more than I would have thought. Also surprised it's the same as Wisconsin

He has Alabama favored by 24 vs LSU.

This is all cool and stuff but remember that this is Danny Sherridan and Betting lines. Doesn't mean he thinks Bama would win by these numbers, its all about public perception and what he would place the lines at to get equal betting on both sides.

PA Tide Fan said:

Per Danny Sheridan:

#2 Penn State - Bama favored by 9
#3 Georgia - Bama favored by 14
#4 TCU - Bama favored by 14
#5 Wisconsin - Bama favored by 14
#6 Ohio State - Bama favored by 7
#7 Clemson - Bama favored by 6
#8 Miami - Bama favored by 14
#9 Notre Dame - Bama favored by 14
#10 Oklahoma - Bama favored by 13

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/alabama-football/alabamas-odds-every-top-10-team-college-football/

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With Sheridan you've got to take it with a grain of salt, and also, you have to consider if these are actual predictions of game outcomes, OR predictions of "Vegas Betting Lines" - Sheridan is a bookie, and there is a BIG and fundamental difference between "lines" and "predictions".

So based on the source article in AL.com: http://www.al.com/alabamafootball/index.ssf/2017/10/which_top-10_team_would_have_b.html#incart_river_index

It looks like Danny is predicting "spreads" which means "Betting lines".

And you have to remember that most "lines" on Alabama games tend to be inflated because Alabama fans (historically) are sucker bettors. Though this year has so far proved to be the exception, as out team (so far) has been meeting and EXCEEDING even the inflated optimism of our fans in the betting public.

As for -24 vs. LSu. Its really not as crazy as it sounds.
ESPiN FPI has us at -19 (if I'm reading the chart properly).
Sagarin would put us around -25.
Massey puts us at -16

So who knows?

Kinda shocked UGA is -14, same as Wisconsin and Miami. Personally I'm a much bigger believer in UGA that Wisco or the U and I suspect most casual bettors are too.

All interesting, but I feel we play like we can play no one gets within 17 of this team right now.

LA4Bama said:

The only one surprising in UGA. -14 is a lot more than I would have thought. Also surprised it's the same as Wisconsin

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Wisconsin is not nearly athletic enough to hang. That's why. It would be another Michigan State equivalent.

Bama Czar said:

Wisconsin is not nearly athletic enough to hang. That's why. It would be another Michigan State equivalent.

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Wisconsin isn't getting past the B1GCG, so it doesn't matter. Their W/L record is a product of their weak schedule.

I took him to mean Georgia is clearly better than Wisconsin, so if Ga is -14, Wisky should be -21

Bama Czar said:

Wisconsin is not nearly athletic enough to hang. That's why. It would be another Michigan State equivalent.

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Bama Czar said:

Wisconsin is not nearly athletic enough to hang. That's why. It would be another Michigan State equivalent.

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That's what I meant. Having Wisconsin the same as Georgia makes no sense to me, they would get killed by Georgia i think. If we beat Georgia by 14 I'd be very happy. Beating whisky by that would be ho-hum.

BamaDMD said:

This is all cool and stuff but remember that this is Danny Sherridan and Betting lines. Doesn't mean he thinks Bama would win by these numbers, its all about public perception and what he would place the lines at to get equal betting on both sides.

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When it comes to real lines, you're absolutely right. The numbers are set to make the betting lines be as even as humanly possible. Also, of course, these will change up to the last minute -- not necessarily due to direct information on a teams' condition (player injuries are a good example) -- but more due to how much money is flowing to the betting tables in either direction. For example ... if too much money goes to LSU, then the line will move away from Bama so that newer bettors will put money on the Tide because we humans can't turn down a DEAL! When the betting goes 50/50, the dealer WINS!

Keep in mind though, that these numbers almost identically line up with numbers from the Sagarin ratings. His system is not perfect obviously, else every bettor would be using them in every game and cleaning up but I have to say it is the finest computer-generated gauge to where teams are and how they relate to each other from week to week. I would say that it is *mostly* reliable. You can't ask for a better betting guide than that

TideWatcher said:

I took him to mean Georgia is clearly better than Wisconsin, so if Ga is -14, Wisky should be -21

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Yep - I think that Sheridan is assuming that if Alabama played Wisconsin, that means that they are better than we think because they would have won the BCSCG. But if Alabama played Wisconsin today, the line would be over 20 points.

theballguy said:

When it comes to real lines, you're absolutely right. The numbers are set to make the betting lines be as even as humanly possible. Also, of course, these will change up to the last minute -- not necessarily due to direct information on a teams' condition (player injuries are a good example) -- but more due to how much money is flowing to the betting tables in either direction. For example ... if too much money goes to LSU, then the line will move away from Bama so that newer bettors will put money on the Tide because we humans can't turn down a DEAL! When the betting goes 50/50, the dealer WINS!

Keep in mind though, that these numbers almost identically line up with numbers from the Sagarin ratings. His system is not perfect obviously, else every bettor would be using them in every game and cleaning up but I have to say it is the finest computer-generated gauge to where teams are and how they relate to each other from week to week. I would say that it is *mostly* reliable. You can't ask for a better betting guide than that

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I wonder if Vegas uses computer generated numbers like Sagarin for their lines now. I always thought that they had analysts that provided the numbers.

TomFromBama said:

With Sheridan you've got to take it with a grain of salt, and also, you have to consider if these are actual predictions of game outcomes, OR predictions of "Vegas Betting Lines" - Sheridan is a bookie, and there is a BIG and fundamental difference between "lines" and "predictions".

So based on the source article in AL.com: http://www.al.com/alabamafootball/index.ssf/2017/10/which_top-10_team_would_have_b.html#incart_river_index

It looks like Danny is predicting "spreads" which means "Betting lines".

And you have to remember that most "lines" on Alabama games tend to be inflated because Alabama fans (historically) are sucker bettors. Though this year has so far proved to be the exception, as out team (so far) has been meeting and EXCEEDING even the inflated optimism of our fans in the betting public.

As for -24 vs. LSu. Its really not as crazy as it sounds.
ESPiN FPI has us at -19 (if I'm reading the chart properly).
Sagarin would put us around -25.
Massey puts us at -16

So who knows?

Click to expand...

I heard a Vegas guy on the radio today and he expects it to open at -24.

PA Tide Fan said:

If I'd have to choose I'd take LSU +24. I think LSU's defense keeps the score somewhat respectable. I think we win by something in the 14-17 point range.

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Agreed. Ridiculous amount of pts but shows you the national view of Bama's dominance.

Agree that Ohio State and Clemson would be our toughest matchups. They both have equivalent talent imo. I also think that Oklahoma could give us problems because of Mayfield.