Rumor: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

drwho

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

Apparently, the betting odds of Gruden being the coach have gone from 500-1 to 2-1.
I had no idea you could actually bet on that. One thing to remember about odds in these situations: They don't necessarily favor the most likely candidate-they favor the candidate that Vegas wants you to bet on . . . so they make money. The main reason betting lines change during the week in Vegas is because they need to ensure that they money is evenly split, so that they have plenty to take their cut from.
 

UntouchableCrew

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

I had no idea you could actually bet on that. One thing to remember about odds in these situations: They don't necessarily favor the most likely candidate-they favor the candidate that Vegas wants you to bet on . . . so they make money. The main reason betting lines change during the week in Vegas is because they need to ensure that they money is evenly split, so that they have plenty to take their cut from.
That's true with a point spread -- I assure you, having Gruden at 2 to 1 means they think it is likely to happen and don't want to get caught with their pants down. If true that's a pretty good indicator it's going to happen.
 

RollTide_HTTR

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

I still seriously doubt he does. Has there been a report from any credible source about this? Everywhere I look it's just speculation.
No idea. I haven't really been following this thread closely because I am kinda shocked that this is even a possibility.
 

RTR91

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

I had no idea you could actually bet on that. One thing to remember about odds in these situations: They don't necessarily favor the most likely candidate-they favor the candidate that Vegas wants you to bet on . . . so they make money. The main reason betting lines change during the week in Vegas is because they need to ensure that they money is evenly split, so that they have plenty to take their cut from.
Going from 500-1 to 2-1 is such a massive jump, they aren't just trying to get an even split or make money.
 

uafan4life

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

I guess "last year" was a long time ago.
Apparently so...

2016 Big Ten East Standings:
1. Penn State
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Indiana
5. Maryland
6. Michigan State
7. Rutgers

...and the supposed best team in the Big Ten last year, Ohio State, got shut out in the CFP.

In fact, the Big Ten has been outscored 71-0 in their last two CFP games, which points to the conference, as a whole, being over-valued. And, this season, the Big Ten will most likely lose out on the CFP altogether. So, for three seasons - including this one - it appears as though the best of the best in the Big Ten has been good but not great teams and, yet, Harbaugh's best is just third in their division.

Perhaps it feels like Harbaugh is doing a great job but, if you look at the actual results on the field, he is actually doing worse, overall, against his rivals, against ranked teams, and in the final Big Ten standings than his predecessor, Brady Hoke, who got fired for his mediocrity.



Let me repeat that... Harbaugh is getting worse results, on the field, at Michigan than Brady Hoke did at Michigan.
 

UntouchableCrew

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

Apparently so...

2016 Big Ten East Standings:
1. Penn State
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Indiana
5. Maryland
6. Michigan State
7. Rutgers

...and the supposed best team in the Big Ten last year, Ohio State, got shut out in the CFP.

In fact, the Big Ten has been outscored 71-0 in their last two CFP games, which points to the conference, as a whole, being over-valued. And, this season, the Big Ten will most likely lose out on the CFP altogether. So, for three seasons - including this one - it appears as though the best of the best in the Big Ten has been good but not great teams and, yet, Harbaugh's best is just third in their division.

Perhaps it feels like Harbaugh is doing a great job but, if you look at the actual results on the field, he is actually doing worse, overall, against his rivals, against ranked teams, and in the final Big Ten standings than his predecessor, Brady Hoke, who got fired for his mediocrity.
I mean, they were #3 in the playoff rankings with a game to go and lost to Ohio State on a bad call. I think saying they weren't contenders last year is disingenuous. They curbstomped the conference champion 49-10.

Agreed the B1G was overvalued last year, but it's still one of the top conferences in college football and the B1G East is the deepest division int he country.

People can play the "hasn't won a title" card, but I think the performance (and more importantly the instant improvement) everywhere he's been in both college and the pros is extremely telling. Anyone who doesn't think he's a very good coach is extremely biased, IMO.
 

uafan4life

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

I mean, they were #3 in the playoff rankings with a game to go and lost to Ohio State on a bad call. I think saying they weren't contenders last year is disingenuous. They curbstomped the conference champion 49-10.

Agreed the B1G was overvalued last year, but it's still one of the top conferences in college football and the B1G East is the deepest division int he country.

People can play the "hasn't won a title" card, but I think the performance (and more importantly the instant improvement) everywhere he's been in both college and the pros is extremely telling. Anyone who doesn't think he's a very good coach is extremely biased, IMO.
I said a legitimate contender. They would have been shown to have no business being a playoff team last year had they gotten there instead of Ohio State.

Look, I'll give Harbaugh credit for being a good recruiter and an excellent hype-generator for his program. However, even with those better recruits, better pre-season rankings, etc. than Brady Hoke had, he's still performing worse on the field against ranked teams, against his biggest rivals, and in the final Big Ten standings than Hoke.

Which is more important - recruiting rankings and pre-season rankings or final season standings?

Harbaugh, at Michigan, has been outstanding at things that don't matter nearly as much and mediocre at what matters most.
 

RollTide_HTTR

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

I mean, they were #3 in the playoff rankings with a game to go and lost to Ohio State on a bad call. I think saying they weren't contenders last year is disingenuous. They curbstomped the conference champion 49-10.

Agreed the B1G was overvalued last year, but it's still one of the top conferences in college football and the B1G East is the deepest division int he country.

People can play the "hasn't won a title" card, but I think the performance (and more importantly the instant improvement) everywhere he's been in both college and the pros is extremely telling. Anyone who doesn't think he's a very good coach is extremely biased, IMO.
He is clearly a very good coach but he hasn't proven to be elite. I think that tends to be the hangup with him. He is often talked about in the same breath as Meyer, Saban, and Dabo but he just isn't in their league at this point.
 

RTR91

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

He is clearly a very good coach but he hasn't proven to be elite. I think that tends to be the hangup with him. He is often talked about in the same breath as Meyer, Saban, and Dabo but he just isn't in their league at this point.
This. I know Harbaugh is a good coach, but he gets so much praise for not even winning a division title in college. Not to mention his off the field antics...
 

TitleWave

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

Going from 500-1 to 2-1 is such a massive jump, they aren't just trying to get an even split or make money.
Can't we just do away with the suspense and get the Phuller Tush Man renamed head coach and Chucky coach-in-waiting as he transitions from espn back into college football only 27 years later...? Sort of like Kiffies Jr. and Sr. on a far-less talented level.
 

Alasippi

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

Funny.

Seriously, any coach that is truly a good-to-great college football coach should at least win the division at Michigan once in three tries if not the Big Ten.

Now, maybe Harbaugh will go on a tear, surprise the heck out of me and many others, and win his division and/or the Big Ten twice out of the next three years to get to a one-in-three average - at which point I will gladly acknowledge his competence - but he has shown no real signs, yet, of actually being able to do that.
He's getting extremely close to being really good though.
 

Bamabuzzard

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

Let me repeat that... Harbaugh is getting worse results, on the field, at Michigan than Brady Hoke did at Michigan.

(Foghorn Leghorn voice) Hushyomouf boy, I say hush it shut now! Well, before you hush it go wash it out boy! Jimmy-boy is one of the best coaches in the country son. He wins twitter battles all day long. Show some respect boy! I say! These yung-uns these days!
 
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RobK

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

I certainly wouldn't blame Gruden for seeking out a late-career hit at the money till that coaching these days has become. He's probably maxed out on earning potential on television. The question for me would be whether he would want to step into the hothouse of the SEC at Tennessee and deal with year-round recruiting, delusional boosters, and everything else, or would he want to take total control of an NFL franchise for more money in a league environment he has already been successful in? There are probably at least a half-dozen NFL owners that would give him the proverbial "keys to the car" for the asking.
 

NoNC4Tubs

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

No way it was because of a job interview. For one, probably wouldn't be in Knoxville anyway. Would probably meet people elsewhere to discuss it. Plus, Childers wouldn't openly say it if it was true.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
....or maybe they are counting on us to think that.....:cool2:



 
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Crimson1967

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

Can you actually bet on who their next coach is?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

RT27

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

Does anyone think Gruden will ever coach at any level ever again? He has been hot topic for openings for yrs, and he has never seemed interested at all to return to coaching. I think he knows at this point, he has everything to lose and nothing to gain by coming back to coaching.
 

Bamabuzzard

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Re: Sounds like Gruden might be replacing Botch at tennessee

Does anyone think Gruden will ever coach at any level ever again? He has been hot topic for openings for yrs, and he has never seemed interested at all to return to coaching. I think he knows at this point, he has everything to lose and nothing to gain by coming back to coaching.
I would be completely shocked. The very few times he's actually addressed it in detail, he has said it's because being in the booth provides him more freedom (with time) to be involved in his family's everyday affairs. Where as a coach in the NFL/College requires you to basically be an absentee husband and father. He's having his cake and eating it to. He's able to make millions of dollars, be involved in a sport he loves AND, AND be actively involved with his family. Good lord why in the world would he give that up? Especially to go to the crap hole that is Tennessee.
 
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