My Top-10 and P_ayoff _racket

TomFromBama said:

Just how I see the "Snapshot" of today - with the understanding that MUCH is likely to change between today and December 3!

But my current Top-10 is based on an average of what I consider to be the best (or most influential) polls and the best Computers. I include AP (probably best) and ESPiN "FPI" (probably most influential considering ESPiN's role behind the closed doors of the "Double Secret Committee"); Massey's compilation of over 80 published computer polls (I count this as one "vote"), then the 6 computers that formed the computer portion of the former BCS computation. I don't include the sham "P_ayoff Poll" as its utterly meaningless Until they give their final rankings. Also, I have Arbitrarily eliminated UCF from my rankings as ESPiN has pretty clearly signaled that (at least as of today) they have no chance of making the P_ayoffs.

This yeilds the following:
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Notre Dame
4. Clempson
5. Wisconsin
6. Miami (but almost TIED with Wisc.! Closest gap in my Top-10)
7. OU
8. Ohio $t.
9. TCU
10. Washington

This system ranks aub #14 and MSU #19.

My sense is that ESPiN and the "Double Secret Committee" are positioning the P_ayoffs to shake out this way (pending the upsets that may well come):

The following teams are probably "IN" so long as they finish with under 2 losses:
(Order is NOT significant as Seeding will be set at the end based on desired TV pairings)
1) UA/UGA Winner - one seat at the table
2) Notre Dame
3) Clem/Miami Winner- again, one slot between them.

The fourth spot will be occupied by Wisconsin, but ONLY if they run the table and Win the B1G title with a 13-0 record. If they lose even ONE game, they are almost certainly "Out". As matters stand today, the next team "on deck" would be the OU/TCU winner (If 12-1).

IF we don't have 4 teams from the above with 1 or no losses, the next team "on deck" would be Washington, again, if they run the table from here out.

IF we don't have 4 teams from the above with 1 or no losses, then the door swings open.

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deliveryman35 said:

It might be a stretch, but IF the barn beats the no 1 and 2 teams in the country( us and Georgia) in consecutive weeks then I do think they have a legitimate shot at the playoff in the minds of the committee and ESPN. Hence they control their destiny.

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BamaInBham said:

AU does not control its own destiny. AU is not getting in over a 1 loss or fewer ND, Wash, Wisc Conf Champ, OU, TCU, Clem, Miami. So, AU needs 4 of those teams to lose again and Miami and maybe Wisc to lose twice. OU/TCU, Clem/Miami and Miami/ND play each other, but even if Miami loses to ND and wins out, it will go before AU. That could happen, but AU does not control its own destiny, it needs help, though it would likely be the top 2 loss team if that much chaos ensues. OTOH, e.g., Bama definitely is in if it wins out or if it loses 1 game and beats UGA in the SECC game; e.g., UGA is in if it wins out or loses to AU but wins the SECC and maybe if its only loss is in the SECC game. But the real issue is that the odds of AU beating UGA/Bama/UGA are extremely low. It's been years (2013 and that took 2 once in a lifetime fluke plays) since AU has beaten a good team, home or away. They've lost 6 in a row and 16 of 20 to UGA/Bama. To do it 3 times in 4 weeks is hardly worth mentioning. It's far less likely than Wisc going 13-0.

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selmaborntidefan said:

My Rankings:

1) Don't Matter Now
2) Lots of Games Left
3) Who Cares Who's Where?
4) It Will All Work Itself Out

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