Best Case Scenario: Bama Wins, Auburn Loses This Saturday

sanjosecrimson said:

As we all know, IF Alabama defeats Miss St. and Georgia beats Auburn this Saturday, Alabama is guaranteed to head to Atlanta for the SECCG for the 4th straight time.

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I'm being contrarian here, but I might prefer Auburn win. I know I'm supposed to hate Auburn, but I hope for what is best for Alabama. Last year Alabama lost SDH for the year in the conference championship game, a game I might add that provided no benefit to Alabama.

Right now Alabama vs. Georgia is setting up to be a playoff rematch, with the final game being the only one that really counts. If Georgia doesn't lose in the regular season, beating them once probably won't be enough. I want a safety net, and I cheer for that throughout the season, but I want the easiest path for Alabama. Playing in the SECCG and having to play Georgia twice is not my idea of easiest path. I would be fine with avoiding both of those things.

So, how do things break down at the moment? The Pac-12 and Big 10 are narrowly hanging onto hopes for the playoff, with a single team having a chance (Wisconsin and Washington respectively). Notre Dame has Miami coming up, if they lose to Miami (or Stanford) they are out of it. The Big 12 has no undefeated teams, if they can't present a 1 loss conference champion their hopes look dim to. The SEC and the ACC seem to be on track to place at least one team in the playoff. Basically though that's 6 slots, with two all but guaranteed.

Alabama's only path isn't to win the SEC actually. I won't want them to lose, I'd prefer they win out, but avoiding the SECCG is actually a viable path and similar to the one Ohio State took last year. It doesn't take much to open that door. That also happens to be the easiest path, Alabama rests while other teams knock each other out. Interestingly enough, if Auburn beats Georgia, then Alabama, then Georgia again, they might actually just reopen the path for Alabama to the playoff (putting themselves in a similar position to Penn State last year). But, assuming Alabama plays in the SECCG, if Alabama plays a one loss Georgia team in the SECCG and beats them, then Alabama will be done with Georgia. What I don't want, is an undefeated Georgia team in the SECCG...

I hope the aubs lose everything to everybody, starting with the coin toss !!

KrAzY3 said:

I'm being contrarian here, but I might prefer Auburn win. I know I'm supposed to hate Auburn, but I hope for what is best for Alabama. Last year Alabama lost SDH for the year in the conference championship game, a game I might add that provided no benefit to Alabama.

Right now Alabama vs. Georgia is setting up to be a playoff rematch, with the final game being the only one that really counts. If Georgia doesn't lose in the regular season, beating them once probably won't be enough. I want a safety net, and I cheer for that throughout the season, but I want the easiest path for Alabama. Playing in the SECCG and having to play Georgia twice is not my idea of easiest path. I would be fine with avoiding both of those things.

So, how do things break down at the moment? The Pac-12 and Big 10 are narrowly hanging onto hopes for the playoff, with a single team having a chance (Wisconsin and Washington respectively). Notre Dame has Miami coming up, if they lose to Miami (or Stanford) they are out of it. The Big 12 has no undefeated teams, if they can't present a 1 loss conference champion their hopes look dim to. The SEC and the ACC seem to be on track to place at least one team in the playoff. Basically though that's 6 slots, with two all but guaranteed.

Alabama's only path isn't to win the SEC actually. I won't want them to lose, I'd prefer they win out, but avoiding the SECCG is actually a viable path and similar to the one Ohio State took last year. It doesn't take much to open that door. That also happens to be the easiest path, Alabama rests while other teams knock each other out. Interestingly enough, if Auburn beats Georgia, then Alabama, then Georgia again, they might actually just reopen the path for Alabama to the playoff (putting themselves in a similar position to Penn State last year). But, assuming Alabama plays in the SECCG, if Alabama plays a one loss Georgia team in the SECCG and beats them, then Alabama will be done with Georgia. What I don't want, is an undefeated Georgia team in the SECCG...

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Respectfully, there is almost No Way On Earth the SECC game Loser makes the P_ayoffs.

Don’t be fooled by these meaningless early sham polls. The ENTIRE REASON We got stuck with a P_ayoff and a Secret Committee is to Prevent a repeat of 2011.



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KrAzY3 said:

I'm being contrarian here, but I might prefer Auburn win. I know I'm supposed to hate Auburn, but I hope for what is best for Alabama. Last year Alabama lost SDH for the year in the conference championship game, a game I might add that provided no benefit to Alabama.

Right now Alabama vs. Georgia is setting up to be a playoff rematch, with the final game being the only one that really counts. If Georgia doesn't lose in the regular season, beating them once probably won't be enough. I want a safety net, and I cheer for that throughout the season, but I want the easiest path for Alabama. Playing in the SECCG and having to play Georgia twice is not my idea of easiest path. I would be fine with avoiding both of those things.

So, how do things break down at the moment? The Pac-12 and Big 10 are narrowly hanging onto hopes for the playoff, with a single team having a chance (Wisconsin and Washington respectively). Notre Dame has Miami coming up, if they lose to Miami (or Stanford) they are out of it. The Big 12 has no undefeated teams, if they can't present a 1 loss conference champion their hopes look dim to. The SEC and the ACC seem to be on track to place at least one team in the playoff. Basically though that's 6 slots, with two all but guaranteed.

Alabama's only path isn't to win the SEC actually. I won't want them to lose, I'd prefer they win out, but avoiding the SECCG is actually a viable path and similar to the one Ohio State took last year. It doesn't take much to open that door. That also happens to be the easiest path, Alabama rests while other teams knock each other out. Interestingly enough, if Auburn beats Georgia, then Alabama, then Georgia again, they might actually just reopen the path for Alabama to the playoff (putting themselves in a similar position to Penn State last year). But, assuming Alabama plays in the SECCG, if Alabama plays a one loss Georgia team in the SECCG and beats them, then Alabama will be done with Georgia. What I don't want, is an undefeated Georgia team in the SECCG...

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Nah, just give me a Georgia win over Auburn. A Bama win over Auburn. A Bama win over Georgia.

We do that, not only do we win the SEC Championship, which is a big deal, but that means we're playing at a level nobody else can match. Win two more (hopefully one of those against ND) and we are national champions yet again!

Most definitely best case. I'd rather play at Auburn with just bragging rights on the line than playoff rights. If Auburn beats #1 on Saturday it will also make them confident that they can beat #2.

KrAzY3 said:

I'm being contrarian here, but I might prefer Auburn win. I know I'm supposed to hate Auburn, but I hope for what is best for Alabama. Last year Alabama lost SDH for the year in the conference championship game, a game I might add that provided no benefit to Alabama.

Right now Alabama vs. Georgia is setting up to be a playoff rematch, with the final game being the only one that really counts. If Georgia doesn't lose in the regular season, beating them once probably won't be enough. I want a safety net, and I cheer for that throughout the season, but I want the easiest path for Alabama. Playing in the SECCG and having to play Georgia twice is not my idea of easiest path. I would be fine with avoiding both of those things.

So, how do things break down at the moment? The Pac-12 and Big 10 are narrowly hanging onto hopes for the playoff, with a single team having a chance (Wisconsin and Washington respectively). Notre Dame has Miami coming up, if they lose to Miami (or Stanford) they are out of it. The Big 12 has no undefeated teams, if they can't present a 1 loss conference champion their hopes look dim to. The SEC and the ACC seem to be on track to place at least one team in the playoff. Basically though that's 6 slots, with two all but guaranteed.

Alabama's only path isn't to win the SEC actually. I won't want them to lose, I'd prefer they win out, but avoiding the SECCG is actually a viable path and similar to the one Ohio State took last year. It doesn't take much to open that door. That also happens to be the easiest path, Alabama rests while other teams knock each other out. Interestingly enough, if Auburn beats Georgia, then Alabama, then Georgia again, they might actually just reopen the path for Alabama to the playoff (putting themselves in a similar position to Penn State last year). But, assuming Alabama plays in the SECCG, if Alabama plays a one loss Georgia team in the SECCG and beats them, then Alabama will be done with Georgia. What I don't want, is an undefeated Georgia team in the SECCG...

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To win the playoff you have to get to the playoff. The most secure road to the playoff includes Auburn losing to GA this weekend. Not only does it give you a loss safety net, but it removes two huge motivators for Auburn - they are eliminated from both the SECCG and the CFP, and they can no longer play spoiler for Alabama for either. For a team that feeds off of hate, removing that stuff is HUGE.

Your path to the playoff is greatly eased if Auburn loses to GA.

B1GTide said:

To win the playoff you have to get to the playoff. The most secure road to the playoff includes Auburn losing to GA this weekend. Not only does it give you a loss safety net, but it removes two huge motivators for Auburn - they are eliminated from both the SECCG and the CFP, and they can no longer play spoiler for Alabama for either. For a team that feeds off of hate, removing that stuff is HUGE.

Your path to the playoff is greatly eased if Auburn loses to GA.

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Not to mention that Auburn thrives on momentum and desiring to beat Alabama. A win against Georgia just gives them confidence.

The most annoying person in the world is a Barner with confidence!!!

A loss to Georgia takes alot of the wind out of their sails.

B1GTide said:

To win the playoff you have to get to the playoff. The most secure road to the playoff includes Auburn losing to GA this weekend. Not only does it give you a loss safety net, but it removes two huge motivators for Auburn - they are eliminated from both the SECCG and the CFP, and they can no longer play spoiler for Alabama for either. For a team that feeds off of hate, removing that stuff is HUGE.

Your path to the playoff is greatly eased if Auburn loses to GA.

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You understand.

I also agree with everything else in this post. If UGA beats AU, then if Bama beats MSU or AU and UGA, they are in.

B1GTide said:

To win the playoff you have to get to the playoff. The most secure road to the playoff includes Auburn losing to GA this weekend. Not only does it give you a loss safety net, but it removes two huge motivators for Auburn - they are eliminated from both the SECCG and the CFP, and they can no longer play spoiler for Alabama for either. For a team that feeds off of hate, removing that stuff is HUGE.

Your path to the playoff is greatly eased if Auburn loses to GA.

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Yes it makes it easier but we want auburn to lose just to watch them lose, not about easier path, it is just fun watching them lose. I want them so irrelevant by seasons end they end up playing a nobody in some lousy bowl. The farther they fall the better

colbysullivan said:

I don't care if we lose to the Barn every year if it means we can win the SEC and be in the playoffs. National championships are all that matter...

that being said, they suck and I hope they lose every game

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You obviously don't live in Alabama.

TomFromBama said:

Don’t be fooled by these meaningless early sham polls. The ENTIRE REASON We got stuck with a P_ayoff and a Secret Committee is to Prevent a repeat of 2011.

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The odd thing is I haven't been fooled by them so far, but that doesn't mean they can't pull one over on me. I said Alabama would get in over a two loss Ole Miss, but some people swore up and down, over and over and over that the conference champ would get in over Alabama. That scenario didn't happen, but what did we see last year? Oh yeah, two loss conference champ Penn State at home while one loss Ohio State played in the playoff. This year, some people were shocked that Alabama wasn't #1 in the poll, but I repeatedly said they might not be. Last week some said they might get jumped, I said they wouldn't be. I'm not saying I'm always right, I'm saying the committee has actually been highly predicable thus far. Could they throw a curve? Absolutely, but they really haven't yet, every single thing they did so far (after their very first poll) I could and in many cases did, predict.

BamaMoon said:

Nah, just give me a Georgia win over Auburn. A Bama win over Auburn. A Bama win over Georgia.

We do that, not only do we win the SEC Championship, which is a big deal, but that means we're playing at a level nobody else can match. Win two more (hopefully one of those against ND) and we are national champions yet again!

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The problem is it's not we, it's them. They play the game, they have to win, and with a beat up defense. I'd give them the easiest path, any day. I'll sit there in comfort and watch it occur. I don't hope they play ND either, I hope they play the easiest possible opponent.

B1GTide said:

Your path to the playoff is greatly eased if Auburn loses to GA.

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The path to winning the playoff arguably becomes much harder though... It's not just getting there that I care about. Also, I'd point to the above poster's sentiment. If Alabama can beat these guys, they probably will. Why make it any harder though? Why play Georgia twice? Why go to the SECCG at all if they don't have to?

Edit: If Alabama is going to lose to Auburn, their situation will change very little either way. But if Georgia already has a loss when/if Alabama plays them, that is for the better. Let's put it this way, the absolutely best case scenario, is one in which Georgia isn't in the playoff. I think we all can agree on that right?

I get it though, I remember a few years back when an Auburn win clearly would benefit Alabama, and many posters here swore up and down that they'd cheer against Auburn even if it meant the result would be bad for Alabama. I just don't care about Auburn that much. I want Alabama to win a championship, that's it.

CullmanTide said:

You obviously don't live in Alabama.

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I live in Alabama but I've overcome the obsession with Auburn. They are just an obstacle, no more, no less. Their fans are the ones that would gladly commit dual suicide with the Alabama program if they could. I just want success for Alabama, Auburn's success is not relative to Alabama's in my mind. If they can make the path easier, so be it.

KrAzY3 said:

The path to winning the playoff arguably becomes much harder though...

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We will just have to agree to disagree.

sanjosecrimson said:

As we all know, IF Alabama defeats Miss St. and Georgia beats Auburn this Saturday, Alabama is guaranteed to head to Atlanta for the SECCG for the 4th straight time.

The Iron Bowl will not be a must win for Bama for the West. Trust me, I want to beat auburn very bad in any given year, but the pressure won't be as high. furthermore, if somehow Bama loses to Auburn , Bama can still have a chance to beat #1 Georgia and most likely be in the Playoffs. This scenario is the best possible insurance Alabama can have closing out the season especially with our banged up defense. We need some cushion.
Once again, I want to beat Auburn and stay undefeated , make no mistake!!

Thoughts??

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Alabama wins - Auburn loses is ALWAYS the best case scenario, regardless of the weekend or the stakes. [emoji6]


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B1GTide said:

We will just have to agree to disagree.

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Well, it wouldn't be the first time. But I will elaborate.

The argument is that it somehow benefits Alabama to have Auburn lose right? But the only scenario in which Auburn losing matters, is if they beat Alabama! That's it, because otherwise Auburn is out of the picture completely after they lose to Alabama. So, this scenario is basically saying alright, Auburn will beat Alabama. But, that also means that now that Auburn loses to Georgia, and Alabama loses to Auburn, that Georgia then has to lose twice more! So we're now in this weird scenario in which Alabama might not be able to beat Auburn, but Georgia can beat Auburn but might lose twice to Alabama? I just don't see that scenario is being particularly good for Alabama. Remember, we're talking about a 2 loss Auburn team, this is like Penn State last year or Ole Miss the first year of the playoff. This isn't the kick six year... I was very happy when Auburn took their second loss, and desperately hoped they would lose to Georgia that fateful year. But they're already out of the playoff, they already have their second loss.

There are many other complexities that hoping for this scenario isn't fully acknowledging. One of them is the fact that Notre Dame and Georgia are bound to each other. Georgia is #1 and Notre Dame is #3. Those two teams are as I alluded to before are effectively a road block. This includes potential road blocks to a one loss Alabama team, but that's almost besides the point. As long as Georgia and Notre Dame keep winning, they keep feeding off each other. Even if an undefeated Georgia loses to Alabama, there's no way they fall below Notre Dame! So, this keeps them in the picture. Likewise, if we want Notre Dame out of the picture, that starts with their one loss looking less impressive. So, if I really want to see Alabama improve their margin of error, and I don't want to see them play Georgia twice, that starts with hoping both of those teams lose. That's just one tiny aspect of the big picture, but it matters. The better Georgia's resume is the better Notre Dame's is. Now, I know you were not inviting further discussion, so I apologize, but I wanted to further explain my point. There's a lot of variables and Auburn is a lesser player in the big picture at the moment.

My best case scenario involves Auburn beating Georgia, then Alabama beating Auburn. I fail to see how the other scenario is better than that.

KrAzY3 said:

Well, it wouldn't be the first time. But I will elaborate.
My best case scenario involves Auburn beating Georgia, then Alabama beating Auburn. I fail to see how the other scenario is better than that.

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And if that happens, no problem. But we have both seen a fired up and talented Auburn team beat a talented Saban led Alabama team twice when all the marbles were at stake.

Saban is the best coach in college football, but he places no more emphasis on the Auburn game than any other game. That is the right strategy most of the time. But Auburn teams HATE Alabama. They get up for the game far more that Alabama does under Saban. And if they are good enough to beat GA, they will be talented enough to beat anyone.

So your whole season rests on the Auburn game in your scenario - in Auburn, where really weird stuff happens. That is what you want?

That is my reasoning. Auburn doesn't scare me, but I won't lie - the insanity that happens in that stadium kinda does.

I just hope we beat Mississippi State.

Okay, I'll keep this short and simple:
We need Georgia to beat Auburn, so that we can secure a spot in SEC Championship. Why? We currently are battling injuries... and We need to head to Auburn with little less pressure on Daboll and the company. Maybe pull our players out early in the game.

Alasippi said:

I just hope we beat Mississippi State.

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I agree, let's do that and then finish 15-0. Problem solved!

I agree with TomFrom. I think they will do ANYTHING to keep 2011 from happening again. I know they are dying for ND to be able to keep a top 4 spot too especially with the Big 10 throwing up all over itself.


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