Best Case Scenario: Bama Wins, Auburn Loses This Saturday

KrAzY3

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This is not about an easy trip as much as it is about having a safety net. Saban only has one undefeated year in his career. Going undefeated in a 15 game season is almost impossible. Auburn loses - Alabama gets a pretty reliable safety net for inclusion in the CFP with a loss. Losing this late in the season almost always means dropping out of the race with too few games remaining to recover. Alabama really needs a safety net or 15-0 is the only way that you can win a championship this year while virtually every other team can do so at 14-1.
Sorry to drag this on for so long, but I think we have both reached the point that we understand the other's point but we're not changing our mind. I think we'd also both agree that either way, sooner or later Alabama has to win. Perhaps part of the hangup is the importance some still place on conference championships, that a one loss team is imperiled unless they claim that magical talisman. I think that's largely been debunked, but clearly is holds some sort of value, however little that might be.

You are arguing for what you see as a safety net, while I basically want the seas to part and open the easier path for Alabama. I don't particularly long for a must win conference championship game, and I think people might be overestimating some of the opposition in terms of playoff candidates. The field really has shrunk considerably. The fact that Auburn is at 10 attests to that. There's really only nine teams that hold any sort of claim to the four playoff slots, and seven of those teams are on collision courses with each other!

Shortly after Alabama's last loss to Ole Miss, I made a post basically saying Alabama had everything it took to win a national championship that year. It wasn't just about the team itself though, it was about the fact that they still controlled their own destiny. Alabama just had to win and they'd go to the playoff, even with that one loss. I study the variables from the first game of the season, I like looking at different scenarios, so while we might disagree on what gives Alabama the best chance, I don't think either of us come from a position of ignorance.

No, as I made clear in my post, it is much more than that. We simply disagree.

Also, I don't necessarily agree with your UGA/ND scenarios. In fact, I believe it is possible, if not likely, that a one loss ND is picked over a one loss UGA. ND would have what would likely be notable wins over Mich St, USCw, NC St, Miami and Stanford. UGA would have what would likely wins over ND, MSU and AU. So, apart from politics, ND would have a legitimate case over UGA, even though they lost at home, early in the year and by one point. UGA's prospects would be in further peril if they are unimpressive in their loss to Bama. So, it's not close to a given that a one loss UGA is ranked ahead of a one loss ND just because of head to head.
Remember, you said it was simple, heh. I understand, my viewpoint and your viewpoint are both complex. We just see different things as posing a threat. Let's look at Georgia though and how close they are to packing their bags to the playoff.

I'll concede the possibility that this one loss Alabama, one loss Notre Dame, one loss Clemson grouping rank ahead of Georgia. I'll just go with that. What is Georgia's resume really? They'd have both the best loss and the best win of any remaining playoff contenders! There's just no way, no way Wisconsin or Washington, with their weak resumes jump them. It's not going to happen under that scenario. The only team I see that really seems like it could pose any sort of a threat is Oklahoma. But even Oklahoma has obstacles in their way that pose a very real threat. TCU and a conference championship game to name a few. But, knowing what I know about the committee, I really doubt they'd put Notre Dame ahead of Georgia then let another team jump them. As I said before those two seem to provide a roadblock, because the higher you rank Notre Dame, the more you acknowledge Georgia.

Now, let's say Notre Dame loses. Ok, then you still have the ACC champ and Alabama ahead right? But now two teams have to jump Georgia! Still not going to be Washington. May be that opens the path wider for Oklahoma and Wisconsin though? But, I'm telling you right now, they won't both won't win out. Georgia with a win over Auburn can all but pack their bags for the playoff.

So, we're back to Alabama can coast to an SECCG and that could provide some advantages. My counter, is that also opens the path for a two loss Alabama team, or a potential rematch with Georgia. And the question is which do I think poses a bigger threat? I'm already made that clear. You are less worried about that scenario than I, but I look at worst case, and worst case is a two loss Alabama team that's out of contention for the playoff. That all but requires Georgia beat Auburn though... that's one of the two problems I see with this alleged best case scenario. But, I respect and understand your viewpoint.
 

BamaInBham

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Sorry to drag this on for so long, but I think we have both reached the point that we understand the other's point but we're not changing our mind. I think we'd also both agree that either way, sooner or later Alabama has to win. Perhaps part of the hangup is the importance some still place on conference championships, that a one loss team is imperiled unless they claim that magical talisman. I think that's largely been debunked, but clearly is holds some sort of value, however little that might be.

You are arguing for what you see as a safety net, while I basically want the seas to part and open the easier path for Alabama. I don't particularly long for a must win conference championship game, and I think people might be overestimating some of the opposition in terms of playoff candidates. The field really has shrunk considerably. The fact that Auburn is at 10 attests to that. There's really only nine teams that hold any sort of claim to the four playoff slots, and seven of those teams are on collision courses with each other!

Shortly after Alabama's last loss to Ole Miss, I made a post basically saying Alabama had everything it took to win a national championship that year. It wasn't just about the team itself though, it was about the fact that they still controlled their own destiny. Alabama just had to win and they'd go to the playoff, even with that one loss. I study the variables from the first game of the season, I like looking at different scenarios, so while we might disagree on what gives Alabama the best chance, I don't think either of us come from a position of ignorance.


Remember, you said it was simple, heh. I understand, my viewpoint and your viewpoint are both complex. We just see different things as posing a threat. Let's look at Georgia though and how close they are to packing their bags to the playoff.

I'll concede the possibility that this one loss Alabama, one loss Notre Dame, one loss Clemson grouping rank ahead of Georgia. I'll just go with that. What is Georgia's resume really? They'd have both the best loss and the best win of any remaining playoff contenders! There's just no way, no way Wisconsin or Washington, with their weak resumes jump them. It's not going to happen under that scenario. The only team I see that really seems like it could pose any sort of a threat is Oklahoma. But even Oklahoma has obstacles in their way that pose a very real threat. TCU and a conference championship game to name a few. But, knowing what I know about the committee, I really doubt they'd put Notre Dame ahead of Georgia then let another team jump them. As I said before those two seem to provide a roadblock, because the higher you rank Notre Dame, the more you acknowledge Georgia.

Now, let's say Notre Dame loses. Ok, then you still have the ACC champ and Alabama ahead right? But now two teams have to jump Georgia! Still not going to be Washington. May be that opens the path wider for Oklahoma and Wisconsin though? But, I'm telling you right now, they won't both won't win out. Georgia with a win over Auburn can all but pack their bags for the playoff.

So, we're back to Alabama can coast to an SECCG and that could provide some advantages. My counter, is that also opens the path for a two loss Alabama team, or a potential rematch with Georgia. And the question is which do I think poses a bigger threat? I'm already made that clear. You are less worried about that scenario than I, but I look at worst case, and worst case is a two loss Alabama team that's out of contention for the playoff. That all but requires Georgia beat Auburn though... that's one of the two problems I see with this alleged best case scenario. But, I respect and understand your viewpoint.
It's all in fun and interesting and you are always civil. I hope that your theories in this case are true :).
 

Con

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just saw in the ajc that this saturday is the 31st anniversary of the fire hose game


one of the few parts of uga history that i can enjoy
This is pretty sad for Georgia. They were only a few years removed from their best years with Herschel Walker and they were storming the field pulling up grass. Really, act like you have won before. I don't like Auburn, but I always respect the way their field looks, just like I do all the fields around the country except for the wierd ones. I think the field management guys do an outstanding job.
 

TrueBamafan

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If Auburn beats Georgia they are going to be a tough out in their on stadium with a trip to Atlanta on the line. I am a die hard Bama fan but if the Barn wins this weekend I would have to give the advantage to them in the Iron Bowl from all the injuries we have on defense.
 

Crimson1967

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Us winning and them losing is always a best case scenario.


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TIDE-HSV

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This is pretty sad for Georgia. They were only a few years removed from their best years with Herschel Walker and they were storming the field pulling up grass. Really, act like you have won before. I don't like Auburn, but I always respect the way their field looks, just like I do all the fields around the country except for the wierd ones. I think the field management guys do an outstanding job.
They are the only school I've ever heard of which had to ban tailgating for a year because of their own fans trashing their own campus. When they barely beat us right after our north EZ was completed, they stole our flags off the stadium. Pretty much thugs...
 

CrimsonForce

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Let me dispel the crazy myth real quick. A one loss Alabama team who does not play in the SECCG isn't' making the CFP if the other teams hold serve. We need UGA to beat AU in order to solidify our spot in the SECCG in case we slip up to AU. Pretty simple..
 

Con

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They are the only school I've ever heard of which had to ban tailgating for a year because of their own fans trashing their own campus. When they barely beat us right after our north EZ was completed, they stole our flags off the stadium. Pretty much thugs...
That is not a good look on the program. I hope it is just the alcohol causing the thuggery.
 

92tide

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If Auburn beats Georgia they are going to be a tough out in their on stadium with a trip to Atlanta on the line. I am a die hard Bama fan but if the Barn wins this weekend I would have to give the advantage to them in the Iron Bowl from all the injuries we have on defense.
this may be peak eeyore
 

CrimsonProf

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An undefeated or one-loss SEC champion is not getting left out. We need to win our games and we need auburn to lose.

I'm not sure why there is even a question.


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KrAzY3

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Let me dispel the crazy myth real quick. A one loss Alabama team who does not play in the SECCG isn't' making the CFP if the other teams hold serve
Actually, that probably is true. If Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Washington all win out, it would be a very big ask for a one loss non-SEC champ to sneak in. But, the odds of that happening are very slim!

Now I'm past debating, I stated my point. But I don't want anyone to exaggerate or misinterpret it. The scenario I hope for has a high and a low path so to speak that would be better if Auburn beat Georgia. The high is an undefeated Alabama heading to the playoff, with a two loss Georgia team at home (I don't expect Alabama to lose to Auburn and see Georgia as the biggest threat). The low path is a one loss Alabama team that isn't beat up and playing for their life, but rather hoping a team or two trip up. Mind you, we've seen teams trip up over and over and over. As I said earlier in the thread, what are the odds of Alabama slipping in as a one loss team out of the SECCG vs. the odds of beating Georgia in that game? There is no guarantee at all that Alabama beats Georgia if they can't get past Auburn (edit: in that scenario Auburn could help Alabama in the SECCG). So my scenario avoids playing Georgia twice or losing twice, both of which are bad paths to me.

I understand and empathize with the Auburn hate, wanting to play in the SECCG , and the "safety" of a play-in game. I just think the importance of that is being overstated and prefer the other path. None of us can know for certain how this will play out, and which path will actually be better. We will see though...
 
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RT27

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Actually, that probably is true. If Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Washington all win out, it would be a very big ask for a one loss non-SEC champ to sneak in. But, the odds of that happening are very slim!

Now I'm past debating, I stated my point. But I don't want anyone to exaggerate or misinterpret it. The scenario I hope for has a high and a low path so to speak that would be better if Auburn beat Georgia. The high is an undefeated Alabama heading to the playoff, with a two loss Georgia team at home. The low path is a one loss Alabama team that isn't playing for their life, but rather hoping a team or two trip up. Mind you, we've seen teams trip up over and over and over. As I said earlier in the thread, what are the odds of Alabama slipping in as a one loss team out of the SECCG vs. the odds of beating Georgia in that game? There is no guarantee at all that Alabama beats Georgia if they can't get past Auburn. So my scenario avoids playing Georgia twice or losing twice, both of which are bad paths to me.

I understand and empathize with the Auburn hate, wanting to play in the SECCG , and the "safety" of a play-in game. I just think the importance of that is being overstated and prefer the other path. None of us can know for certain how this will play out, and which path will actually be better. We will see though...
Oh the better path is easy, win em all, and nothing can stop us, period..... end of story LOL
 

92tide

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Yep. Can't wait for us to beat MSU good so the eeyore's calm down for at least a week or two.
we can win 61-0 and they will chime in on the post game thread that the players are going to get complacent and lose to auburn and then get utterly annihilated by uga.
 

CrimsonForce

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Actually, that probably is true. If Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Washington all win out, it would be a very big ask for a one loss non-SEC champ to sneak in. But, the odds of that happening are very slim!

Now I'm past debating, I stated my point. But I don't want anyone to exaggerate or misinterpret it. The scenario I hope for has a high and a low path so to speak that would be better if Auburn beat Georgia. The high is an undefeated Alabama heading to the playoff, with a two loss Georgia team at home (I don't expect Alabama to lose to Auburn and see Georgia as the biggest threat). The low path is a one loss Alabama team that isn't beat up and playing for their life, but rather hoping a team or two trip up. Mind you, we've seen teams trip up over and over and over. As I said earlier in the thread, what are the odds of Alabama slipping in as a one loss team out of the SECCG vs. the odds of beating Georgia in that game? There is no guarantee at all that Alabama beats Georgia if they can't get past Auburn (edit: in that scenario Auburn could help Alabama in the SECCG). So my scenario avoids playing Georgia twice or losing twice, both of which are bad paths to me.

I understand and empathize with the Auburn hate, wanting to play in the SECCG , and the "safety" of a play-in game. I just think the importance of that is being overstated and prefer the other path. None of us can know for certain how this will play out, and which path will actually be better. We will see though...
Well, you left out Miami, Clemson and TCU. I realize all those teams can't win out because some of them play each other but there's a handful of teams who just have to win a few more games or could even lose a game and win their conference that would be ahead of a 1 loss non SEC champ Alabama. In order for your crazy theory to play out there would have to be mass chaos i.e. all those teams listed lose multiple games. The odds of that happening are very slim!
 

KrAzY3

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Well, you left out Miami, Clemson and TCU. I realize all those teams can't win out because some of them play each other but there's a handful of teams who just have to win a few more games or could even lose a game and win their conference that would be ahead of a 1 loss non SEC champ Alabama. In order for your crazy theory to play out there would have to be mass chaos i.e. all those teams listed lose multiple games. The odds of that happening are very slim!
Notre Dame plays Miami, Clemson will play an undefeated Miami, TCU plays Oklahoma, etc... My "theory" isn't crazy, just watch. Teams will keep dropping... It was 10, now it's 9, after this week that list will keep shrinking. That doesn't mean the river parts, but the Big 10 and Pac 12 are already barely hanging on. There's none of those teams listed that need to lose multiple games! I'm not sure if that's what you meant, but Wisconsin and Miami are ranked low for a reason, weak schedule and poor performances, if they lose they're done. The rest are one loss teams, second loss and they too are done (unless chaos does actually occur).

Just check out ESPN's FPI. Here's some win out percentages: Notre Dame 36%, Washington 39%, Oklahoma 34% (TCU 12%), Wisconsin 22%... so what does that mean? I'm conceding a spot for the ACC. That's one spot. We're hoping Alabama gets in, that's 2 spots.

Then that would leave Georgia vs. Auburn, if Georgia loses (again) they'd be done, but let's go with the FPI's current odds of that matchup as 50/50. Notre Dame roughly 1/3 chance. Washington would have a 4/10 change but keep in mind they are one loss and ranked 9th, their schedule is crap, so jumping Alabama is not a given, Oklahoma and TCU combine for what, about a 50/50 chance (those odds don't seem to include conference championship games), and Wisconsin has a 1/5 shot, but their schedule is so weak they're not guaranteed either. Now, I don't want that scenario to happen, I think Alabama beats Auburn, but as you can see that's not crazy odds, that's actually pretty decent odds that one slot remains open. That's basically 5 parties, but 3 of them would have to make it to keep Alabama out. That's not chaos, that's just football. It clearly could go either way though, but to look at those odds and go oh no way that happens is incorrect.

How things play out will dictate how I feel about the Auburn/Georgia game in retrospect. If Alabama beats Auburn, you bet I'll be frustrated if Auburn lost to Georgia. If Alabama somehow slips up and as you put it those other teams hold serve? I'll be happy that Georgia won. But, there's basically 2 scenarios out of 3 in which I'd prefer Auburn beat Georgia.

Edit: Washington lost, so there will not be a one loss Pac 12 team. So umm... yeah.
 
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BamaGreek

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Like the thread title says,"Bama wins, Auburn loses this Saturday." I think Bama's defense will be just fine tonight and the offense will be more than just fine. Jalen will have a great game and coach Daboll's play calling will progress just like he probably has planned. The "Gus Bus" seems to lose the Big games and today is their biggest game so far.
 

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