Sorry to drag this on for so long, but I think we have both reached the point that we understand the other's point but we're not changing our mind. I think we'd also both agree that either way, sooner or later Alabama has to win. Perhaps part of the hangup is the importance some still place on conference championships, that a one loss team is imperiled unless they claim that magical talisman. I think that's largely been debunked, but clearly is holds some sort of value, however little that might be.This is not about an easy trip as much as it is about having a safety net. Saban only has one undefeated year in his career. Going undefeated in a 15 game season is almost impossible. Auburn loses - Alabama gets a pretty reliable safety net for inclusion in the CFP with a loss. Losing this late in the season almost always means dropping out of the race with too few games remaining to recover. Alabama really needs a safety net or 15-0 is the only way that you can win a championship this year while virtually every other team can do so at 14-1.
You are arguing for what you see as a safety net, while I basically want the seas to part and open the easier path for Alabama. I don't particularly long for a must win conference championship game, and I think people might be overestimating some of the opposition in terms of playoff candidates. The field really has shrunk considerably. The fact that Auburn is at 10 attests to that. There's really only nine teams that hold any sort of claim to the four playoff slots, and seven of those teams are on collision courses with each other!
Shortly after Alabama's last loss to Ole Miss, I made a post basically saying Alabama had everything it took to win a national championship that year. It wasn't just about the team itself though, it was about the fact that they still controlled their own destiny. Alabama just had to win and they'd go to the playoff, even with that one loss. I study the variables from the first game of the season, I like looking at different scenarios, so while we might disagree on what gives Alabama the best chance, I don't think either of us come from a position of ignorance.
Remember, you said it was simple, heh. I understand, my viewpoint and your viewpoint are both complex. We just see different things as posing a threat. Let's look at Georgia though and how close they are to packing their bags to the playoff.No, as I made clear in my post, it is much more than that. We simply disagree.
Also, I don't necessarily agree with your UGA/ND scenarios. In fact, I believe it is possible, if not likely, that a one loss ND is picked over a one loss UGA. ND would have what would likely be notable wins over Mich St, USCw, NC St, Miami and Stanford. UGA would have what would likely wins over ND, MSU and AU. So, apart from politics, ND would have a legitimate case over UGA, even though they lost at home, early in the year and by one point. UGA's prospects would be in further peril if they are unimpressive in their loss to Bama. So, it's not close to a given that a one loss UGA is ranked ahead of a one loss ND just because of head to head.
I'll concede the possibility that this one loss Alabama, one loss Notre Dame, one loss Clemson grouping rank ahead of Georgia. I'll just go with that. What is Georgia's resume really? They'd have both the best loss and the best win of any remaining playoff contenders! There's just no way, no way Wisconsin or Washington, with their weak resumes jump them. It's not going to happen under that scenario. The only team I see that really seems like it could pose any sort of a threat is Oklahoma. But even Oklahoma has obstacles in their way that pose a very real threat. TCU and a conference championship game to name a few. But, knowing what I know about the committee, I really doubt they'd put Notre Dame ahead of Georgia then let another team jump them. As I said before those two seem to provide a roadblock, because the higher you rank Notre Dame, the more you acknowledge Georgia.
Now, let's say Notre Dame loses. Ok, then you still have the ACC champ and Alabama ahead right? But now two teams have to jump Georgia! Still not going to be Washington. May be that opens the path wider for Oklahoma and Wisconsin though? But, I'm telling you right now, they won't both won't win out. Georgia with a win over Auburn can all but pack their bags for the playoff.
So, we're back to Alabama can coast to an SECCG and that could provide some advantages. My counter, is that also opens the path for a two loss Alabama team, or a potential rematch with Georgia. And the question is which do I think poses a bigger threat? I'm already made that clear. You are less worried about that scenario than I, but I look at worst case, and worst case is a two loss Alabama team that's out of contention for the playoff. That all but requires Georgia beat Auburn though... that's one of the two problems I see with this alleged best case scenario. But, I respect and understand your viewpoint.