Never too early to think of Iron Bowl
- Thread starter melvinm
- Start date
I look for Bama to be very slightly favored in Vegas but A LOT of the sports punditry along with many others will predict an Auburn victory. We are decimated with injuries at key positions, the barn is playing well right now, they will have home field advantage, and fwiw history is not on our side( we have not won 4 or more in a row in the series 36 years running). Like some others I think I want to keep an eye out for any new developments over the next 8-10 days before making a prediction on the game. Barring something very unusual though I would think at the very least we are looking at a very difficult, uphill battle given the injury and depth situations alone.
UGA was determined to keep trying to run between the tackles. I have no idea why.
More reps isnt going to get these inexperienced guys ready for an SEC West deciding game. It's not that easy. Sure they could provide a few plays of rest for the starters. But it's going to be up to the guys that have been there all season.. Stidham has crazy accuracy. But when he gets pressured he folds like a tent... pressuring him will be the key
I was thinking about TOP (time of possession). I can’t see Auburn running the clock down every play like MSU did...it’s just not who they are on offense.
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IMO, streaks and such mean nothing. If they did, we could say Bama has won 7 of 9 against AU and 3 of 4 at "spooky" J-H. Bama is a great road team and beats AU more often than not, but those things don't mean much, it's this year's game. AU may have the best unit in the game on their side, DL, Bama will have the best player at the most important position. Psychologically, Bama will have the edge, as AU will be the "trendy" pick, but Bama will likely have the weakest soft spot, the one MLB spot. It will be difficult to hide, if it isn't shored up.
We will hear a lot about AU having the advantage when both programs are highly ranked, but it's a myth. Bama is 4-4 when both are ranked in the top 10, 1-1 when both are in the top 5. Of AU's 4 wins when both were top 10, it took 3 "strange" games going their way for them to win: '72, '10, '13. I.e., Bama could easily be 7-1. But again all of this historical stuff is essentially meaningless. I just bring up these numbers because others will, promoting the myth that Bama can't handle AU when both are good. The real questions are: how will Bama address the MLB situation, how will Bama handle the AU DL, how will AU handle Jalen, how will AU's secondary hold up against Ridley and Co, will Pruitt continue his mastery of Malzahn's O, etc. ?
I’d like to see Moses on blitz packages. This game probably suits him better than MSU.
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Apparently, I'm going to have to say what I say this time every single year:
THE IRON BOWL IS NOT THE KIND OF GAME WHERE ANY TEAM CAN WIN. YOU DON'T "THROW THE RECORDS OUT," THAT'S NONSENSE. THE BETTER TEAM WINS THIS GAME PRETTY MUCH 100% OF THE TIME.
THE IRON BOWL IS NOT THE KIND OF GAME WHERE ANY TEAM CAN WIN. YOU DON'T "THROW THE RECORDS OUT," THAT'S NONSENSE. THE BETTER TEAM WINS THIS GAME PRETTY MUCH 100% OF THE TIME.
I'm not quite as worried about Hassenauer coming in for him though, as Jess stated in his wrapup, he came in and solidified that spot and really opened up some holes. I think we'll be fine at LG.
Surprising and welcome development, considering what other injuries have done to us.
The worrisome thing about the AU/Ga game was the Auburn offensive line pushing around Georgia. I thought Georgia would have trouble on offensive, but was surprised they struggled on D. But then again, Bama ain't Georgia. I expect Bama to be ready to play.
I am worried about the injury situation between now and Auburn also. I hope nobody else gets hurt in practice or v Mercer. It seems it is happening too much this year. It was one of a few things that cost us a National Championship last year and could possibly cost us winning the West in a few weeks. I really thought we could beat Auburn if we had all our linebackers all year but I have concerns now with all the injuries. Auburn has everyone healthy except Pettway, and with the way KJ is playing, they don't need Pettway anyway. I think having the game at our place would help us by at least 7-10 points. We know who the refs will be pulling for....
If UGA plays us, I hope they keep Fromm at QB. If Auburn makes it to the SEC champ game, I hope UGA plays Eason because they have a much better chance to win with Eason (if they get him lots of reps and let him play a lot the next 2 games). That will be too big of a stage for Fromm.
I prefaced that part with 'fwiw', and I would agree that past games have little bearing on a game being played today.
To me, the big elephant in the room(no pun intended) is the injury situation. It DOES have a bearing on this game and unless some backups play lights out then I think it will be extremely difficult. At full strength I would not be nearly as concerned.
We have Jalen Hurts and an offense that is SO much more diverse and potent than what Auburn faced against Georgia. Yes, Auburn has a good defense. But let's not make them superhuman. They faced a one dimensional team with a true freshman immobile quarterback. The game changes when you insert a QB like Hurts, a running game like Bama's and WR's like Bama's. The entire game changes. The field to defend gets bigger for the defense. It completely shrunk Saturday against Georgia. That will not be the case in the Iron Bowl. Our offense will be a different animal for Auburn compared to what they faced Saturday. We're elephants, not dogs.
Per 24/7 Sports, the betting line on the game after this weekend has gone from -10 Alabama down to -3 Alabama. A lot of money moving in the barn's direction, as I think could be expected.
Very little money is bet early. This is more likely a line correction based on the games just played. But betting lines will not decide this game.
Good, the more the spotlight gets put on the barn the more likely they crap their pants in the game. They are one of the best under dog programs in the country. Any time they are a big under dog they seem to feed off it, circle the wagons, and pull a magical game out of their rear ends. I hope by game time Bama is the underdog and Auburn is picked "by the experts" to win. It will be a bloodbath in soutwest JawJa. Weeping and gnashing of teeth style.
True, though I don't really consider it an "elephant in the room", since everyone openly acknowledges the situation. But you are right, it is an issue.
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