Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn) - Page 2
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  1. #14
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Bazza's Avatar
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    You're overreacting!

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  3. #15
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    The one thing that I do not understand about the Auburn fan base is that they have two losses? If you read the stuff that they are spewing, they are the best team in the nation. What have they done? They beat an overrated Georgia team, and BAMA struggles with Miss. State. Well, Auburn lost to LSU, and Clempson. ANd BAMA did win at MSU. I understand that they try to spin the LSU loss as somehting other than a loss, but the last time I checked the standings, it was a loss. Even if they somehow beat BAMA in a close game, I cannot see them being in the playoff? Especially if Georgia got their revenge in the SEC Championship game. That is what could get two SEC teams in the final four. BAMA drop a close game to Auburn, maybe from a really bad call from the refs, and Auburn looses to Georgia on neutral site rematch.

  4. #16
    BamaNation Hall of Fame selmaborntidefan's Avatar
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    I've been here long enough that nobody suspects me of being a Barn double agent but I have this thing about consistency, too........(check out NS for some examples)

    Quote Originally Posted by bamapuppy View Post
    The one thing that I do not understand about the Auburn fan base is that they have two losses? If you read the stuff that they are spewing, they are the best team in the nation.

    Well, they did beat number one.......




    Quote Originally Posted by bamapuppy View Post
    What have they done? They beat an overrated Georgia team,
    It's not Auburn's fault that the media overrated UGA now, is it?

    It was one of the most impressive wins in history against a team ranked number one. I'm still researching it, but I think it would have been the biggest blowout
    loss by a #1 in history had UGA not gotten that late TD.




    Quote Originally Posted by bamapuppy View Post
    and BAMA struggles with Miss. State.
    Auburn beat MSU by 39 points.




    Quote Originally Posted by bamapuppy View Post
    Well, Auburn lost to LSU, and Clempson.
    Yes, they did.

    They also beat ATM by more points than we did, Arky by the same number of points (32), and Ole Miss by fewer.

    Losing to Clemson is no shame by any means. The blowing a 20-0 lead at LSU is going to haunt Auburn for years if they miss the playoff by a nose.






    Quote Originally Posted by bamapuppy View Post
    ANd BAMA did win at MSU. I understand that they try to spin the LSU loss as somehting other than a loss, but the last time I checked the standings, it was a loss.
    Not really any different than Tide fans in 2012 saying we lost to ATM because of (take your pick):
    a) the emotion from the LSU game the week before
    b) Nussmeier's idiocy
    c) all of the above





    Quote Originally Posted by bamapuppy View Post
    Even if they somehow beat BAMA in a close game, I cannot see them being in the playoff?
    It literally depends on a bunch of other games.




    Quote Originally Posted by bamapuppy View Post
    Especially if Georgia got their revenge in the SEC Championship game.
    Of course not, Auburn would then have three losses.




    Quote Originally Posted by bamapuppy View Post
    That is what could get two SEC teams in the final four. BAMA drop a close game to Auburn, maybe from a really bad call from the refs, and Auburn looses to Georgia on neutral site rematch.
    I agree, but let's take it out of their hands, how about that?
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  5. #17
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    This was the absolutely worst team we could play given what happened with our ILB's. They were going to be tested from the start because that is where MSU puts the pressure with their QB.

    That being said, we are slight underdogs against AU, no doubt...but that is not all bad.
    "The greatest evil in the world is not 'not knowing;' it is not knowing that you do not know." Alfred North Whitehead

  6. #18
    BamaNation Hall of Fame MattinBama's Avatar
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    Head on down the road to It Don't Matter, grab a bite to eat, and remember that this is a game. A game in which the team we are fans of has spoiled us with a long run of our team doing well. Even if we were to lose to Auburn there's zero need to be near any edges in the grand scheme of things. The world would not end with that event. Auburn would just get uglier with toilet paper and the state of Alabama would get uglier with a rise in orange/blue fair weather clothing being worn but it won't be long before it goes right back on the clearance rack and they can't give the stuff away.

  7. #19
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    I agree, but let's take it out of their hands, how about that?

    I agree 100%. Was just making a hypothetical point there. And, for the record, I believe that BAMA will beat Auburn by double digits. I also believe that MSU caught BAMA at a tough time. And, winning that game shows how tough that BAMA can be. Jalen Hurts never gave up, and I feel that was a big factor that will follow this team. I believe that Hurts could be the X factor with this team. I believe that his leadership is his greatest asset. JMHO




    Well, they did beat number one.......






    It's not Auburn's fault that the media overrated UGA now, is it?

    It was one of the most impressive wins in history against a team ranked number one. I'm still researching it, but I think it would have been the biggest blowout
    loss by a #1 in history had UGA not gotten that late TD.






    Auburn beat MSU by 39 points.






    Yes, they did.

    They also beat ATM by more points than we did, Arky by the same number of points (32), and Ole Miss by fewer.

    Losing to Clemson is no shame by any means. The blowing a 20-0 lead at LSU is going to haunt Auburn for years if they miss the playoff by a nose.








    Not really any different than Tide fans in 2012 saying we lost to ATM because of (take your pick):
    a) the emotion from the LSU game the week before
    b) Nussmeier's idiocy
    c) all of the above







    It literally depends on a bunch of other games.






    Of course not, Auburn would then have three losses.






    I agree, but let's take it out of their hands, how about that?[/QUOTE]

  8. #20

    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    LOL, I've never seen so much hand-wringing over a 10-0 team that's likely going to be ranked #1 in the CFP this week...
    To err is human, to really foul things up requires a computer.

  9. #21
    BamaNation All-American Con's Avatar
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    Quote Originally Posted by B1GTide View Post
    First, understand that your defensive game plan against MSU was vastly different than the game plan that you will have for AU. You did not attack the offense because you were worried about their QB's rushing game - he was the best RB on their team, and you played "safe" because of that. Against Auburn, you will get back to blitzing and attacking the LOS.

    Second, your team was exhausted after the LSU game. It will be well rested for Auburn.

    Third, You had only one week to prepare for MSU after losing both ILBs in the LSU game. You will have another 2 weeks to prepare for Auburn without those guys.

    Finally, you won't have to worry about any "rat poison" over the next 2 weeks. Everyone will be picking Auburn in that game. That is going to get this Alabama team fired up, and I just can't see you guys losing a game like this when you are totally focused in your preparation.

    I think that Alabama will win by 20+ points.
    It is good having a "kind of outsider" bringing common sense to things on this board.

  10. #22
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    Quote Originally Posted by selmaborntidefan View Post
    Lackluster?


    State averaged 428 ypg coming in and we held them to 330.

    They average 33.9 ppg and we held them to 24.

    They average 259 yards rushing and we held them to 172.

    They average holding the ball 32 minutes per game so their ball control offense was nothing new.

    MSU gives up 124 yards per game rushing, we had 202. They give up 18 ppg, we had 31.

    They surrender a total of 289 ypg and we had nearly 450.



    Now there are, of course, mirror statistics.


    Our defense gives up 9.8 ppg and surrendered 24.
    We give up 75 yards per game rushing and surrendered more than twice that.



    If I had time to sit down and cut out the 'fuzzy stats' that skew data (e.g. cupcake games with skewed stats), I would arrive at what I call the "corrected average performance." But let's just for time's sake look at the UNCORRECTED AVERAGE, because it's usually more slanted against performance.


    Mississippi State averages 38 ppg and we give up 9.8 so and UNCORRECTED AVERAGE performance would suggest MSU would score 24.35 points per game, meaning an AVERAGE performance by BOTH the MSU offense and the Tide defense would give State 24.35 points. In fact, they scored 24 points. These data
    are slightly skewed by the 106 points MSU got in their first two games against nobodies, so just guesstimating I'd say an AVERAGE performance corrected
    would probably net 20 points.

    MSU gives up 18 ppg, also slightly skewed by the first two games, so I'll deduct those because one is a shutout, which just means I have to divide by a lower number. MSU's CORRECTED average then would be they give up 23.5 ppg in an AVERAGE performance. We average 40.9 ppg (seriously, we have the #8 offense in the country) and they give up 23.5, so an AVERAGE performance would net 32.2 points in a game. (It's kind of pointless to take out the cupcakes for us because we average almost 41 ppg and had 41 ppg in both the CSU and Fresno games - plus, to what degree are they cupcakes compared to State's opener?)



    So this would mean an AVERAGE performance by BOTH teams would give us this final score:
    Alabama 32
    Miss St 24


    What was the final score of the game again?



    Now keep in mind that I had no idea when I began this post what the numbers would show. But the NUMBERS (and yes, they CAN be misleading sometimes before anyone argues that) show that both teams basically played the sum total expected average for BOTH teams and the results bear that out.

    Of course, statistics DON'T show problems. State got seven points because of the leaping penalty, a circumstance that also likely elevated State's overall performance on offense for the game while lowering our D's performance.



    On average, your average performances are going to be average.


    Average WAS, in fact, good enough to beat Miss State. We didn't hold them well below par, but we didn't give up a lot above it, either. The reason our numbers are so low (9.8 ppg) is because MOST OF THE TIME we play WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.


    So Saturday was not lackluster, it was the expected norm based on the combined data of both teams thus far this year. This data is meaningless in September as teams find their rhythm; it becomes more useful over the course of a season.
    I would like to see that same data used for our game with the barn.
    Life is short, ocassionally bend the rules, Forgive quickly, Kiss slowly, Love truly, Laugh uncontrollably, and never regret anything that made you smile.

  11. #23
    BamaNation All-American Con's Avatar
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    Quote Originally Posted by crimsonaudio View Post
    LOL, I've never seen so much hand-wringing over a 10-0 team that's likely going to be ranked #1 in the CFP this week...
    I don't really know what things would look like if we actually lost 3 or 4 games each year. I have only been here since Dec. of 2006.

  12. #24
    BamaNation Hall of Fame selmaborntidefan's Avatar
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    Quote Originally Posted by crimsonaudio View Post
    LOL, I've never seen so much hand-wringing over a 10-0 team that's likely going to be ranked #1 in the CFP this week...

    I'm telling ya, I'm scared to death how Mercer, who played the Barn MUCH CLOSER than MSU did, is going to pound us this weekend.
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  13. #25
    BamaNation Hall of Fame selmaborntidefan's Avatar
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    Quote Originally Posted by capnfrog View Post
    I would like to see that same data used for our game with the barn.
    I'm planning to run it. Time is going to be the issue - Saturday is literally my only day off until "The Day Everyone Kills Everyone At Wal-Mart Just
    Hours After Being Thankful For Everything They Have" Friday. (I won't call it Black Friday because that sounds racist).
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  14. #26
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    Quote Originally Posted by selmaborntidefan View Post
    Lackluster?


    State averaged 428 ypg coming in and we held them to 330.

    They average 33.9 ppg and we held them to 24.

    They average 259 yards rushing and we held them to 172.

    They average holding the ball 32 minutes per game so their ball control offense was nothing new.

    MSU gives up 124 yards per game rushing, we had 202. They give up 18 ppg, we had 31.

    They surrender a total of 289 ypg and we had nearly 450.



    Now there are, of course, mirror statistics.


    Our defense gives up 9.8 ppg and surrendered 24.
    We give up 75 yards per game rushing and surrendered more than twice that.



    If I had time to sit down and cut out the 'fuzzy stats' that skew data (e.g. cupcake games with skewed stats), I would arrive at what I call the "corrected average performance." But let's just for time's sake look at the UNCORRECTED AVERAGE, because it's usually more slanted against performance.


    Mississippi State averages 38 ppg and we give up 9.8 so and UNCORRECTED AVERAGE performance would suggest MSU would score 24.35 points per game, meaning an AVERAGE performance by BOTH the MSU offense and the Tide defense would give State 24.35 points. In fact, they scored 24 points. These data
    are slightly skewed by the 106 points MSU got in their first two games against nobodies, so just guesstimating I'd say an AVERAGE performance corrected
    would probably net 20 points.

    MSU gives up 18 ppg, also slightly skewed by the first two games, so I'll deduct those because one is a shutout, which just means I have to divide by a lower number. MSU's CORRECTED average then would be they give up 23.5 ppg in an AVERAGE performance. We average 40.9 ppg (seriously, we have the #8 offense in the country) and they give up 23.5, so an AVERAGE performance would net 32.2 points in a game. (It's kind of pointless to take out the cupcakes for us because we average almost 41 ppg and had 41 ppg in both the CSU and Fresno games - plus, to what degree are they cupcakes compared to State's opener?)



    So this would mean an AVERAGE performance by BOTH teams would give us this final score:
    Alabama 32
    Miss St 24


    What was the final score of the game again?



    Now keep in mind that I had no idea when I began this post what the numbers would show. But the NUMBERS (and yes, they CAN be misleading sometimes before anyone argues that) show that both teams basically played the sum total expected average for BOTH teams and the results bear that out.

    Of course, statistics DON'T show problems. State got seven points because of the leaping penalty, a circumstance that also likely elevated State's overall performance on offense for the game while lowering our D's performance.



    On average, your average performances are going to be average.


    Average WAS, in fact, good enough to beat Miss State. We didn't hold them well below par, but we didn't give up a lot above it, either. The reason our numbers are so low (9.8 ppg) is because MOST OF THE TIME we play WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.


    So Saturday was not lackluster, it was the expected norm based on the combined data of both teams thus far this year. This data is meaningless in September as teams find their rhythm; it becomes more useful over the course of a season.
    You can quote stats all day long, but that was a lackluster performance to watch. I've not seen us get pushed around like that in almost a decade and I had friends close to the program say the same thing.

    If we don't get things cleaned up, Auburn is going to boat race us and it won't even be close.


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