Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn) - Page 6
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  1. #66
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Redwood Forrest's Avatar
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    Quote Originally Posted by crimsonaudio View Post
    The 'we'll beat 'em by 100' camp (#3) is annoying, but not as much as the 'we're going to lose this game' camp (#1) when Bama is down by 3 in the first quarter.

    #2 is where I am most weeks.
    Normally I am #2 also but all these injuries have me worried. We are a wounded Tide -- @Auburn. I'm not thinking we will lose, so not a #1, but hoping our dinged up guys get some rest this week (but don't tell Coach I said that ).
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  3. #67
    BamaNation All-American theballguy's Avatar
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    Quote Originally Posted by uofaJO1987 View Post
    I really need you guys to talk me down. After last nights lackluster performance by the defense I have my doubts we can hang in there with aubie, much less make a playoff and national championship run. Yall please tell me Im overreacting!!!
    Moo.
    I know what it takes to win. If I can sell them on what it takes to win, then we are not going to lose too many football games. - Coach Paul Bryant and I can see Coach Nick Saban agreeing completely.

  4. #68
    BamaNation All-American RTR2u's Avatar
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    I appreciate Selma's insight of the averages. I guess I never thought of it that way before. That's pretty neat.

  5. #69

    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    The prophet has spoken. Selmaborntidefan.

  6. #70
    BamaNation All-American CHATTBRIT's Avatar
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    I will be first to admit the Barn were impressive against Jawja. However, I doubt they will play that well again. I will never doubt the men in Crimson against that rabble. RTR.
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  7. #71
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    Quote Originally Posted by RTR2u View Post
    I appreciate Selma's insight of the averages. I guess I never thought of it that way before. That's pretty neat.
    Ditto on Selma's insight. I was one who didn't think we played particularly well, (until the 4th quarter), but when you look at what we held them to compared to their usual numbers, it doesn't look quite so bad. If we had unleashed the offense a little earlier, maybe it doesn't end up a nail biter.

  8. #72
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    Quote Originally Posted by selmaborntidefan View Post
    Lackluster?


    State averaged 428 ypg coming in and we held them to 330.

    They average 33.9 ppg and we held them to 24.

    They average 259 yards rushing and we held them to 172.

    They average holding the ball 32 minutes per game so their ball control offense was nothing new.

    MSU gives up 124 yards per game rushing, we had 202. They give up 18 ppg, we had 31.

    They surrender a total of 289 ypg and we had nearly 450.



    Now there are, of course, mirror statistics.


    Our defense gives up 9.8 ppg and surrendered 24.
    We give up 75 yards per game rushing and surrendered more than twice that.



    If I had time to sit down and cut out the 'fuzzy stats' that skew data (e.g. cupcake games with skewed stats), I would arrive at what I call the "corrected average performance." But let's just for time's sake look at the UNCORRECTED AVERAGE, because it's usually more slanted against performance.


    Mississippi State averages 38 ppg and we give up 9.8 so and UNCORRECTED AVERAGE performance would suggest MSU would score 24.35 points per game, meaning an AVERAGE performance by BOTH the MSU offense and the Tide defense would give State 24.35 points. In fact, they scored 24 points. These data
    are slightly skewed by the 106 points MSU got in their first two games against nobodies, so just guesstimating I'd say an AVERAGE performance corrected
    would probably net 20 points.

    MSU gives up 18 ppg, also slightly skewed by the first two games, so I'll deduct those because one is a shutout, which just means I have to divide by a lower number. MSU's CORRECTED average then would be they give up 23.5 ppg in an AVERAGE performance. We average 40.9 ppg (seriously, we have the #8 offense in the country) and they give up 23.5, so an AVERAGE performance would net 32.2 points in a game. (It's kind of pointless to take out the cupcakes for us because we average almost 41 ppg and had 41 ppg in both the CSU and Fresno games - plus, to what degree are they cupcakes compared to State's opener?)



    So this would mean an AVERAGE performance by BOTH teams would give us this final score:
    Alabama 32
    Miss St 24


    What was the final score of the game again?



    Now keep in mind that I had no idea when I began this post what the numbers would show. But the NUMBERS (and yes, they CAN be misleading sometimes before anyone argues that) show that both teams basically played the sum total expected average for BOTH teams and the results bear that out.

    Of course, statistics DON'T show problems. State got seven points because of the leaping penalty, a circumstance that also likely elevated State's overall performance on offense for the game while lowering our D's performance.



    On average, your average performances are going to be average.


    Average WAS, in fact, good enough to beat Miss State. We didn't hold them well below par, but we didn't give up a lot above it, either. The reason our numbers are so low (9.8 ppg) is because MOST OF THE TIME we play WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.


    So Saturday was not lackluster, it was the expected norm based on the combined data of both teams thus far this year. This data is meaningless in September as teams find their rhythm; it becomes more useful over the course of a season.
    Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought they just went a little farther down the field and ended up punting anyway?( Bolded sentence) Gained about 30 yards and maybe flipped field position but I didn't think they scored.....
    Last edited by Mob-Bama; November 13th, 2017 at 05:16 PM. Reason: small correction

  9. #73
    BamaNation Hall of Fame 230kv_barehand's Avatar
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    This is why I never post during the game. People get too emotional and say things like "I'm scared of the barn"

    I would hope those who stepped up at LB will be better with a few games under their belt. Hard to think they should be all world killers in their first start.
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  10. #74

    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    Quote Originally Posted by uofaJO1987 View Post
    I really need you guys to talk me down. After last nights lackluster performance by the defense I have my doubts we can hang in there with aubie, much less make a playoff and national championship run. Yall please tell me Im overreacting!!!
    You forgot the blue font.

  11. #75
    BamaNation All-American TexasTideFan's Avatar
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    Quote Originally Posted by BamaMoon View Post
    Rarely, if ever can you follow up a great game with a similar one...
    The only thing Auburn is worried about right now is blowing up an Alabama team that did not look so hot against State. The problem is Auburn does not play Alabama next, they play ULM. A team that Alabama is probably somewhat familiar with. ULM has a little firepower this year and although it should be a cakewalk for Auburn to motor grade them, I would not be surprised if ULM hangs around a little longer in the game on Saturday. In fact, it would make my day if they caught an Auburn team looking ahead and beat them.

  12. #76
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    First off thanks guys. Second, not a troll or an eeyore as some accusations on the thread stated. Ive been on the site since 2011. I just dont post very often. And after reading selmaborntidefans post Im all better now. Also liked the objective view of the OSU guy. Lets forget about this thread.

  13. #77
    BamaNation All-American theballguy's Avatar
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

    Quote Originally Posted by selmaborntidefan View Post
    Lackluster?...

    [snip]
    So Saturday was not lackluster, it was the expected norm based on the combined data of both teams thus far this year. This data is meaningless in September as teams find their rhythm; it becomes more useful over the course of a season.
    Very good stuff, Selma.
    I know what it takes to win. If I can sell them on what it takes to win, then we are not going to lose too many football games. - Coach Paul Bryant and I can see Coach Nick Saban agreeing completely.

  14. #78
    BamaNation All-American theballguy's Avatar
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    Quote Originally Posted by uofaJO1987 View Post
    First off thanks guys. Second, not a troll or an eeyore as some accusations on the thread stated. I’ve been on the site since 2011. I just don’t post very often. And after reading selmaborntidefan’s post I’m all better now. Also liked the objective view of the OSU guy. Let’s forget about this thread.
    No worries. Just having fun with you. When you make a post like that, you can expect all that ribbing here. ;-)
    I know what it takes to win. If I can sell them on what it takes to win, then we are not going to lose too many football games. - Coach Paul Bryant and I can see Coach Nick Saban agreeing completely.

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