Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn) - Page 9
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  1. #105
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    I do think it will be a heckuva task to beat Auburn at Jordan-Hare with a shorthanded defense that at this juncture is just "a defensive unit with some good players" not the typical "atypically great defensive unit" (hah) due to injuries. I think we're going to struggle contain Kerryon Johnson without putting all our DBs on islands where their screen game, dumpoffs, and deep throws can bust for game changing plays. We're likely going to need a heroic effort from our offense to win the day. It is odd to be at this juncture, because while Auburn has gotten better over the course of the year, I don't think the reason my prognostication of this game has changed is due to how much they've improved but simply due to how much we've regressed on defense due to injuries over the course of the season.

    But there are reasons Auburn is twice defeated this season and I don't think they've completely solved for them. First, they're thin at tailback. Even thinner than we were the year we rode Derrick Henry to a title. I think they gassed Johnson in the LSU game which is the reason they lost that huge lead. Stidham can run just enough to keep you honest but Malzahn is still a 60-75% run play guy most games...so it is almost totally on Johnson to get that production to drive that 25-40% passing play effectiveness. Second, I think the right circumstances could cause Stidham to revert to the Clemson form of holding the ball too long. Ideally it would be by taking away the run but realistically we probably need to race out to a big early lead.


    I would've forecasted a tough but comfortable road win a month ago, now I'm leaning toss-up if we have a good offensive day. Daboll is gonna earn his paycheck because I really think it is up to him and his offensive players to get this win. We're merely mortal now on the defensive side of the ball. We need to play for timely stops on defense not otherworldly stalemating of the opponent's offense. It is honestly kinda interesting to see how Saban and his staff can manage a team in this style of play. He's made a career out of formula that repeats almost universally week to week: we make your offense way less effective and our offense just keeps on plugging along until you break. I don't think we're gonna be able to play that way to win the Iron Bowl and SECCG. Maybe get healed up enough to be more traditional for the playoffs if we make it there.
    Last edited by rgw; November 14th, 2017 at 08:50 PM.
    I owe it to the people to have a signature...so here goes nothing!

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  3. #106

    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    Maybe I'm just looking at things through crimson-colored glasses, but I'm not sure Auburn is all that. They lost both games where they got hit in them mouth and lost the lead. We, on the other hand, showed just last week that we won't give up and can come from behind to secure a victory. When the game was on the line, we owned MSU and won the game. Has Auburn done that yet this year? Something to think about.

  4. #107

    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    Deleted
    Last edited by westide; November 14th, 2017 at 11:22 PM.

  5. #108

    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    Quote Originally Posted by uofaJO1987 View Post
    I really need you guys to talk me down. After last night’s lackluster performance by the defense I have my doubts we can hang in there with aubie, much less make a playoff and national championship run. Y’all please tell me I’m overreacting!!!
    Go ahead and jump because we ain't man enough to beat the Barn. It worked for Dye!

  6. #109

    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    Everybody should relax ... if we were somehow to lose, it would not take much to set up a rematch.

  7. #110
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    This is just a typical thing today. We struggled with MISS ST. But aubs rely very very heavy on carryon johnson, we will key on their run and force their QB to beat us. If it becomes a scoring fest we still have more offensive weapons to keep them guessing. They on the other hand have one great back, and a so so QB. They have been beat,we have not. They exposed UGA, I do not lay a lot of fear in that one lop sided win. UGA is still a yr maybe 2 from being a real good team. Aubs will be tough, but I feel we are better top to bottom and side to side. Can they beat us OH YEAH but it is not a given. This game will be tough but we are more than capabale of beatng them , we could even beat them soundly. Just got to play our game. Defense is not to our normal level due to injuries, byt they have been beaten by teams with defenses I would ay are about as good as ours is now after injuries. Our Offense will give them all they can handle. It may be close but I like our chances of winning.

  8. #111

    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    We have them beat in all three phases of the game. Don't panic.

  9. #112
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    Quote Originally Posted by CrimsonEyeshade View Post
    Everybody should relax ... if we were somehow to lose, it would not take much to set up a rematch.
    How do you come to that conclusion?
    "Football is a hard game. These spread coaches forget that. Until good defenses remind them." Gene Stallings

  10. #113

    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    What if we lose a close game to Auburn? We don't go to the SEC Championship Game, true, but we have only one very good loss on the road to what appears to be a playoff-bound team.
    Auburn beats Georgia. They're in.
    Oklahoma wins out. They're in.
    The winner of Miami/Clemson -- preferably Miami but either would do -- that's three.
    TOSU wins out and eliminates Wisconsin which will have lost to the only decent team they have played.
    That would leave the committee to fill the final spot with either a 2-loss Ohio State team (a recent 30-point loser to an unranked team), a one-loss Miami team/a two-loss Clemson team OR us. Why not us? Some things will have to fall in place, but far, far stranger things have happened.
    I'd rather we just win at Auburn, which would probably give us a big enough cushion to lose to Georgia in the SECCG and still get in.
    Last edited by CrimsonEyeshade; November 15th, 2017 at 02:15 PM.

  11. #114
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    Quote Originally Posted by CrimsonEyeshade View Post
    What if we lose a close game to Auburn? We don't go to the SEC Championship Game, true, but we have only one very good loss on the road to what appears to be a playoff-bound team.
    Auburn beats Georgia. They're in.
    Oklahoma wins out. They're in.
    The winner of Miami/Clemson -- preferably Miami but either would do -- that's three.
    TOSU wins out and eliminates Wisconsin which will have lost to the only decent team they have played.
    That would leave the committee to fill the final spot with either a 2-loss Ohio State team (a recent 30-point loser to an unranked team), a one-loss Miami team/a two-loss Clemson team OR us. Why not us? Some things will have to fall in place, but far, far stranger things have happened.
    I'd rather we just win at Auburn, which would probably give us a big enough cushion to lose to Georgia in the SECCG and still get in.
    I don't think we will get in if we fail to win our division outright.
    "Football is a hard game. These spread coaches forget that. Until good defenses remind them." Gene Stallings

  12. #115
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    Quote Originally Posted by CrimsonEyeshade View Post
    What if we lose a close game to Auburn? We don't go to the SEC Championship Game, true, but we have only one very good loss on the road to what appears to be a playoff-bound team.
    Auburn beats Georgia. They're in.
    Oklahoma wins out. They're in.
    The winner of Miami/Clemson -- preferably Miami but either would do -- that's three.
    TOSU wins out and eliminates Wisconsin which will have lost to the only decent team they have played.
    That would leave the committee to fill the final spot with either a 2-loss Ohio State team (a recent 30-point loser to an unranked team), a one-loss Miami team/a two-loss Clemson team OR us. Why not us? Some things will have to fall in place, but far, far stranger things have happened.
    I'd rather we just win at Auburn, which would probably give us a big enough cushion to lose to Georgia in the SECCG and still get in.
    The ONLY! way the committee would have put 2 SEC teams in the playoff was if #1 & #2 combination of Bama/Dawgs played a 1 score game in the SEC-CG. If we don't win the conference we won't get in unless the entire system implodes in the last 2 weeks before bowl games.
    "It's not the will to win that matters - everyone has that.
    It's the will to prepare to win that matters."
    PAUL "BEAR" BRYANT

  13. #116

    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    Quote Originally Posted by deliveryman35 View Post
    I don't think we will get in if we fail to win our division outright.
    Ohio State agrees it's pretty impossible.
    "I don't know what class is but I can tell when one has it, you can tell from a mile away"
    -- Coach Bryant

    "We always talk about playing 60 minutes but this is a 60-10 game: the 60 minutes of the game and the 10 minutes in the locker room after the game that you remember for the rest of your life."
    -- Nick Saban day after beating Clemson

  14. #117
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    Re: Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

    It really depends on the rest of the events around the nation but I'd feel pretty safe if we went 12-0 and lost the SECCG where it was clear that the temporary depth problems at ILB were to blame than lose against Auburn for the same reason and spend a week outside the minds of the public.


    Can't underrate the fatigue factor either even if we could get in with 1-loss. Also OSU showing so poorly last year may hurt how they feel about doing it for us too.



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