Needing to be talked off the ledge here! (he's scared of auburn)

Con

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Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

First, understand that your defensive game plan against MSU was vastly different than the game plan that you will have for AU. You did not attack the offense because you were worried about their QB's rushing game - he was the best RB on their team, and you played "safe" because of that. Against Auburn, you will get back to blitzing and attacking the LOS.

Second, your team was exhausted after the LSU game. It will be well rested for Auburn.

Third, You had only one week to prepare for MSU after losing both ILBs in the LSU game. You will have another 2 weeks to prepare for Auburn without those guys.

Finally, you won't have to worry about any "rat poison" over the next 2 weeks. Everyone will be picking Auburn in that game. That is going to get this Alabama team fired up, and I just can't see you guys losing a game like this when you are totally focused in your preparation.

I think that Alabama will win by 20+ points.
It is good having a "kind of outsider" bringing common sense to things on this board.
 

capnfrog

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Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

Lackluster?


State averaged 428 ypg coming in and we held them to 330.

They average 33.9 ppg and we held them to 24.

They average 259 yards rushing and we held them to 172.

They average holding the ball 32 minutes per game so their ball control offense was nothing new.

MSU gives up 124 yards per game rushing, we had 202. They give up 18 ppg, we had 31.

They surrender a total of 289 ypg and we had nearly 450.



Now there are, of course, mirror statistics.


Our defense gives up 9.8 ppg and surrendered 24.
We give up 75 yards per game rushing and surrendered more than twice that.



If I had time to sit down and cut out the 'fuzzy stats' that skew data (e.g. cupcake games with skewed stats), I would arrive at what I call the "corrected average performance." But let's just for time's sake look at the UNCORRECTED AVERAGE, because it's usually more slanted against performance.


Mississippi State averages 38 ppg and we give up 9.8 so and UNCORRECTED AVERAGE performance would suggest MSU would score 24.35 points per game, meaning an AVERAGE performance by BOTH the MSU offense and the Tide defense would give State 24.35 points. In fact, they scored 24 points. These data
are slightly skewed by the 106 points MSU got in their first two games against nobodies, so just guesstimating I'd say an AVERAGE performance corrected
would probably net 20 points.

MSU gives up 18 ppg, also slightly skewed by the first two games, so I'll deduct those because one is a shutout, which just means I have to divide by a lower number. MSU's CORRECTED average then would be they give up 23.5 ppg in an AVERAGE performance. We average 40.9 ppg (seriously, we have the #8 offense in the country) and they give up 23.5, so an AVERAGE performance would net 32.2 points in a game. (It's kind of pointless to take out the cupcakes for us because we average almost 41 ppg and had 41 ppg in both the CSU and Fresno games - plus, to what degree are they cupcakes compared to State's opener?)



So this would mean an AVERAGE performance by BOTH teams would give us this final score:
Alabama 32
Miss St 24


What was the final score of the game again?



Now keep in mind that I had no idea when I began this post what the numbers would show. But the NUMBERS (and yes, they CAN be misleading sometimes before anyone argues that) show that both teams basically played the sum total expected average for BOTH teams and the results bear that out.

Of course, statistics DON'T show problems. State got seven points because of the leaping penalty, a circumstance that also likely elevated State's overall performance on offense for the game while lowering our D's performance.



On average, your average performances are going to be average.


Average WAS, in fact, good enough to beat Miss State. We didn't hold them well below par, but we didn't give up a lot above it, either. The reason our numbers are so low (9.8 ppg) is because MOST OF THE TIME we play WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.


So Saturday was not lackluster, it was the expected norm based on the combined data of both teams thus far this year. This data is meaningless in September as teams find their rhythm; it becomes more useful over the course of a season.
I would like to see that same data used for our game with the barn.
 

Con

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Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

LOL, I've never seen so much hand-wringing over a 10-0 team that's likely going to be ranked #1 in the CFP this week...
I don't really know what things would look like if we actually lost 3 or 4 games each year. I have only been here since Dec. of 2006.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Mar 31, 2000
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Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

LOL, I've never seen so much hand-wringing over a 10-0 team that's likely going to be ranked #1 in the CFP this week...

I'm telling ya, I'm scared to death how Mercer, who played the Barn MUCH CLOSER than MSU did, is going to pound us this weekend.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

I would like to see that same data used for our game with the barn.
I'm planning to run it. Time is going to be the issue - Saturday is literally my only day off until "The Day Everyone Kills Everyone At Wal-Mart Just
Hours After Being Thankful For Everything They Have" Friday. (I won't call it Black Friday because that sounds racist).
 

CrimsonProf

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Dec 30, 2006
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Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

Lackluster?


State averaged 428 ypg coming in and we held them to 330.

They average 33.9 ppg and we held them to 24.

They average 259 yards rushing and we held them to 172.

They average holding the ball 32 minutes per game so their ball control offense was nothing new.

MSU gives up 124 yards per game rushing, we had 202. They give up 18 ppg, we had 31.

They surrender a total of 289 ypg and we had nearly 450.



Now there are, of course, mirror statistics.


Our defense gives up 9.8 ppg and surrendered 24.
We give up 75 yards per game rushing and surrendered more than twice that.



If I had time to sit down and cut out the 'fuzzy stats' that skew data (e.g. cupcake games with skewed stats), I would arrive at what I call the "corrected average performance." But let's just for time's sake look at the UNCORRECTED AVERAGE, because it's usually more slanted against performance.


Mississippi State averages 38 ppg and we give up 9.8 so and UNCORRECTED AVERAGE performance would suggest MSU would score 24.35 points per game, meaning an AVERAGE performance by BOTH the MSU offense and the Tide defense would give State 24.35 points. In fact, they scored 24 points. These data
are slightly skewed by the 106 points MSU got in their first two games against nobodies, so just guesstimating I'd say an AVERAGE performance corrected
would probably net 20 points.

MSU gives up 18 ppg, also slightly skewed by the first two games, so I'll deduct those because one is a shutout, which just means I have to divide by a lower number. MSU's CORRECTED average then would be they give up 23.5 ppg in an AVERAGE performance. We average 40.9 ppg (seriously, we have the #8 offense in the country) and they give up 23.5, so an AVERAGE performance would net 32.2 points in a game. (It's kind of pointless to take out the cupcakes for us because we average almost 41 ppg and had 41 ppg in both the CSU and Fresno games - plus, to what degree are they cupcakes compared to State's opener?)



So this would mean an AVERAGE performance by BOTH teams would give us this final score:
Alabama 32
Miss St 24


What was the final score of the game again?



Now keep in mind that I had no idea when I began this post what the numbers would show. But the NUMBERS (and yes, they CAN be misleading sometimes before anyone argues that) show that both teams basically played the sum total expected average for BOTH teams and the results bear that out.

Of course, statistics DON'T show problems. State got seven points because of the leaping penalty, a circumstance that also likely elevated State's overall performance on offense for the game while lowering our D's performance.



On average, your average performances are going to be average.


Average WAS, in fact, good enough to beat Miss State. We didn't hold them well below par, but we didn't give up a lot above it, either. The reason our numbers are so low (9.8 ppg) is because MOST OF THE TIME we play WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.


So Saturday was not lackluster, it was the expected norm based on the combined data of both teams thus far this year. This data is meaningless in September as teams find their rhythm; it becomes more useful over the course of a season.
You can quote stats all day long, but that was a lackluster performance to watch. I've not seen us get pushed around like that in almost a decade and I had friends close to the program say the same thing.

If we don't get things cleaned up, Auburn is going to boat race us and it won't even be close.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

B1GTide

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Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

I think that we would all benefit from watching the game again. Here is what I learned from watching the game a second time:

Your offense actually played a lot better than I thought. I mean, a WHOLE LOT BETTER. You had 10 total offensive possessions. Let's talk about them:

1st - The worst possession of the game - 3 and out forced by a sack of Jalen on 3rd down. The sack came because #71 hurt his ankle on the play.
2nd - 5 Plays, 75 yards - TD scored
3rd - 5 Plays, 75 yards - TD scored
4th - 3 and out, but only because of the "penalty" when contact forced Ridley OOB on the first down reception, but the refs didn't care.
5th - Got terrible field position because of another great punt by MSU - essentially ran out the half, punting with 26 seconds remaining in the half
6th - 7 Plays - 63 yards - FG scored
7th - Your only other bad possession (one of only 2 bad possessions in the game) - 3 and out
8th - 10 Plays - 82 yards - TD scored
9th - 10 Plays - 57 yards - FG missed
10th - 6 Plays, 68 yards - TD scored with 25 seconds remaining to win the game

So you had 9 meaningful possessions, scored on 5 of them and missed a FG on another. You only had 2 bad possessions.
 

Con

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Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

I think that we would all benefit from watching the game again. Here is what I learned from watching the game a second time:

Your offense actually played a lot better than I thought. I mean, a WHOLE LOT BETTER. You had 10 total offensive possessions. Let's talk about them:

1st - The worst possession of the game - 3 and out forced by a sack of Jalen on 3rd down. The sack came because #71 hurt his ankle on the play.
2nd - 5 Plays, 75 yards - TD scored
3rd - 5 Plays, 75 yards - TD scored
4th - 3 and out, but only because of the "penalty" when contact forced Ridley OOB on the first down reception, but the refs didn't care.
5th - Got terrible field position because of another great punt by MSU - essentially ran out the half, punting with 26 seconds remaining in the half
6th - 7 Plays - 63 yards - FG scored
7th - Your only other bad possession (one of only 2 bad possessions in the game) - 3 and out
8th - 10 Plays - 82 yards - TD scored
9th - 10 Plays - 57 yards - FG missed
10th - 6 Plays, 68 yards - TD scored with 25 seconds remaining to win the game

So you had 9 meaningful possessions, scored on 5 of them and missed a FG on another. You only had 2 bad possessions.
I started rewatching it last night and the DL looked about the same, but the LB's were not attacking the line of scrimmage as much. They looked to be catching the blockers more or not really seeing what was happening in front of them.
 

Saban4Ever

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Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

I am not sure if your post is serious or not, but in the big scheme of things it is just a game. Having that mentality is easier said than done though. I am addicted to BAMA football and am a perfectionist who has been "processed". It makes me worried and upset to lose or have injuries that may cause us to lose when I know we should have won (ex. last year's Clemson game). It sometimes affects my anxiety issues worse too. But, I have to keep in mind that it is just a game and the outcome should not rule my life. There are more important things in life than a game.

I will try to find an article for you that I read a year or two ago from a man who was a church leader. He wrote an article about how he is a football fanatic and how he deals with it in his life. It puts everything in perspective.
 

B1GTide

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Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

I also want to point out that this was the worst special teams game played by Alabama in years. I mean, epicly bad. Muffed punt, bad decisions by KO returners, shanked punts, shanked KO when Scott tried for the pooch. On the flip side, they had the best special teams game of their year - probably ever. Their punter had zero punts downed inside the 20 before the Alabama game. He had 2 inside the 10 in this game. He looked like Scott in the game, and he has been very average going into the game.

So you lost special team in an epic way. Need to get that fixed.
 

BAMAVILLE

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Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

LOL, I've never seen so much hand-wringing over a 10-0 team that's likely going to be ranked #1 in the CFP this week...
lol true ... I bet the same fans will be hand-ringing until we win the championship this year. All I can say to the fans hat are worrying is be proud of this team for what they have been able to accomplish with the injuries and adversity they've faced. We took the best 3 and a half quarters MSU player all year and still beat them. (If MSU played like that all season that team would have been undefeated imo) We can only take it one game at a time and he next game up is Mercer. Everyone is going to give us their best game ... it is what it is and thats what we should expect. We just have to in turn give them our best game too. We have been fine and we will be fine.
 

UntouchableCrew

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Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

It's a dangerous game. Auburn whipped Mississippi State 49-10 and obviously just hammered UGA. They look to be playing their best ball of the season.

I still think Alabama wins though. Should be a good game.
 

JD95

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Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

That being said, we are slight underdogs against AU, no doubt...but that is not all bad.
Nope. Even though the boogs are now the greatest thing since sliced bread, Bama is still favored by 3 on their home field. Remember 2015 when we were underdogs at Georgia for the first time in forever? Bama beat the brakes off them!
 

JD95

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Re: Needing to be talked off the edge here!

If we don't get things cleaned up, Auburn is going to boat race us and it won't even be close.
Auburn hasn't "boat raced" Alabama since winning 49-26 in 1969. They've won 20 times in 47 tries since then (not a bad win percentage), and their largest margin of victory has been 10 points.
 

Go Bama

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Even with all the injuries, I still believe Bama will have better talent on the field than the barners and I know our guys will be prepared. There’s no doubt who has the better coaching staff. The Barn’s advantages will be playing at home and luck. I love our chances.
 

DrollTide

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I share some of the concerns, based on Auburn's ability to run, and some vulnerability to the inside run.

The coaches have two weeks to find a resolution. If they don't, the game will be more of a scoring race than we would like. And we may lose - but not in a blowout like Georgia. I think Vegas probably has it right, Bama is still the favorite, but the odds have shortened.
 

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