I do think it will be a heckuva task to beat Auburn at Jordan-Hare with a shorthanded defense that at this juncture is just "a defensive unit with some good players" not the typical "atypically great defensive unit" (hah) due to injuries. I think we're going to struggle contain Kerryon Johnson without putting all our DBs on islands where their screen game, dumpoffs, and deep throws can bust for game changing plays. We're likely going to need a heroic effort from our offense to win the day. It is odd to be at this juncture, because while Auburn has gotten better over the course of the year, I don't think the reason my prognostication of this game has changed is due to how much they've improved but simply due to how much we've regressed on defense due to injuries over the course of the season.
But there are reasons Auburn is twice defeated this season and I don't think they've completely solved for them. First, they're thin at tailback. Even thinner than we were the year we rode Derrick Henry to a title. I think they gassed Johnson in the LSU game which is the reason they lost that huge lead. Stidham can run just enough to keep you honest but Malzahn is still a 60-75% run play guy most games...so it is almost totally on Johnson to get that production to drive that 25-40% passing play effectiveness. Second, I think the right circumstances could cause Stidham to revert to the Clemson form of holding the ball too long. Ideally it would be by taking away the run but realistically we probably need to race out to a big early lead.
I would've forecasted a tough but comfortable road win a month ago, now I'm leaning toss-up if we have a good offensive day. Daboll is gonna earn his paycheck because I really think it is up to him and his offensive players to get this win. We're merely mortal now on the defensive side of the ball. We need to play for timely stops on defense not otherworldly stalemating of the opponent's offense. It is honestly kinda interesting to see how Saban and his staff can manage a team in this style of play. He's made a career out of formula that repeats almost universally week to week: we make your offense way less effective and our offense just keeps on plugging along until you break. I don't think we're gonna be able to play that way to win the Iron Bowl and SECCG. Maybe get healed up enough to be more traditional for the playoffs if we make it there.