Lackluster?
State averaged 428 ypg coming in and we held them to 330.
They average 33.9 ppg and we held them to 24.
They average 259 yards rushing and we held them to 172.
They average holding the ball 32 minutes per game so their ball control offense was nothing new.
MSU gives up 124 yards per game rushing, we had 202. They give up 18 ppg, we had 31.
They surrender a total of 289 ypg and we had nearly 450.
Now there are, of course, mirror statistics.
Our defense gives up 9.8 ppg and surrendered 24.
We give up 75 yards per game rushing and surrendered more than twice that.
If I had time to sit down and cut out the 'fuzzy stats' that skew data (e.g. cupcake games with skewed stats), I would arrive at what I call the "corrected average performance." But let's just for time's sake look at the UNCORRECTED AVERAGE, because it's usually more slanted against performance.
Mississippi State averages 38 ppg and we give up 9.8 so and UNCORRECTED AVERAGE performance would suggest MSU would score 24.35 points per game, meaning an AVERAGE performance by BOTH the MSU offense and the Tide defense would give State 24.35 points. In fact, they scored 24 points. These data
are slightly skewed by the 106 points MSU got in their first two games against nobodies, so just guesstimating I'd say an AVERAGE performance corrected
would probably net 20 points.
MSU gives up 18 ppg, also slightly skewed by the first two games, so I'll deduct those because one is a shutout, which just means I have to divide by a lower number. MSU's CORRECTED average then would be they give up 23.5 ppg in an AVERAGE performance. We average 40.9 ppg (seriously, we have the #8 offense in the country) and they give up 23.5, so an AVERAGE performance would net 32.2 points in a game. (It's kind of pointless to take out the cupcakes for us because we average almost 41 ppg and had 41 ppg in both the CSU and Fresno games - plus, to what degree are they cupcakes compared to State's opener?)
So this would mean an AVERAGE performance by BOTH teams would give us this final score:
Alabama 32
Miss St 24
What was the final score of the game again?
Now keep in mind that I had no idea when I began this post what the numbers would show. But the NUMBERS (and yes, they CAN be misleading sometimes before anyone argues that) show that both teams basically played the sum total expected average for BOTH teams and the results bear that out.
Of course, statistics DON'T show problems. State got seven points because of the leaping penalty, a circumstance that also likely elevated State's overall performance on offense for the game while lowering our D's performance.
On average, your average performances are going to be average.
Average WAS, in fact, good enough to beat Miss State. We didn't hold them well below par, but we didn't give up a lot above it, either. The reason our numbers are so low (9.8 ppg) is because MOST OF THE TIME we play WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
So Saturday was not lackluster, it was the expected norm based on the combined data of both teams thus far this year. This data is meaningless in September as teams find their rhythm; it becomes more useful over the course of a season.