Week 12 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

LA4Bama

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Jan 5, 2015
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Re: Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

We were discussing this in one of Selma's member berries threads, but it really belongs here. Where does OSU stand? Some consider them a long shot, whereas I do not. Of course they are far from a lock, and I won't be shocked if they don't make it in. But while they do badly in human polls, they are lingering close to the top of various metrics. They are fifth right now on Sagarin's computer rankings. I was poking around and saw they are second (second!) in ESPN's FPI, which is their objective measure of team strength. (note, this is last week's FPI)

RKTEAMW-LPROJ W-LWIN OUT%CONF WIN%REM SOS RKFPI
1Alabama, SEC10-012.0 - 0.640.340.55228.5
2OSU, Big Ten8-210.5 - 2.553.867.94026.1
3Penn State, Big Ten8-29.9 - 2.191.70.07823.5
4Clemson, ACC9-111.5 - 1.555.166.35523.0
5Auburn, SEC8-29.6 - 2.821.321.54622.7
6Washington, Pac-128-29.9 - 2.278.07.04322.6
7Georgia, SEC9-111.1 - 1.926.438.02021.9
8Oklahoma, Big 129-111.5 - 1.552.660.15620.9
9Notre Dame, FBS Indep.8-29.4 - 2.646.8--3520.6
10Wisconsin, Big Ten10-012.0 - 1.021.332.01720.0
11Oklahoma State, Big 128-29.9 - 2.368.811.08217.6
12Miami, ACC9-011.1 - 0.927.033.74117.5
13TCU, Big 128-210.0 - 2.827.128.74217.1


Notice they are fairly far ahead of third place.

As with the Sagarin rankings, so here, take it with a grain of salt. And yet, there has to be something behind these mathematical metrics.

Meanwhile Miami is still undefeated but down at 12! If OSU wins out there are going to be some numbers people on that committee who argue they are the "better" team than Miami.
 

KrAzY3

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Re: Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

We were discussing this in one of Selma's member berries threads, but it really belongs here. Where does OSU stand? Some consider them a long shot, whereas I do not. Of course they are far from a lock, and I won't be shocked if they don't make it in. But while they do badly in human polls, they are lingering close to the top of various metrics.
The issue is that the committee doesn't show allegiance to the computers like the BCS did. Penn State and Ohio State have been highly ranked in Sagarin for a while, but the committee did not acknowledge that with their rankings. So yes I would say it's a long shot, but it is theoretically possible.

It is inevitable that the committee eventually places a two loss team over a power 5 one loss team. With their rankings, even their final ones, they have put teams with worse winning percentages ahead. But, is is interesting to note that as far as I can recall, they have yet to leave out a power 5 team with a better winning percentage than one of the final 4 teams. I don't think that's ever happened. So, Ohio State getting in is possible, but not likely.

The type of scenario that opens the door for Ohio State would likely be something like Auburn loses, Georgia loses, and Clemson loses (of course Ohio State would have to win). In that scenario the rankings would be something like Alabama, Miami, Oklahoma and then Ohio State could get into the final spot. The thing is, there is no guarantee that Ohio State jumps both Clemson and Wisconsin even if that scenario plays out. I'm still nervous that a one loss Alabama could miss out, and they certainly seem to have a larger margin of error.

There are also scenarios in which multiple teams ahead lose but Ohio State still gets completely roadblocked by one loss teams. For instance, let's say Alabama loses to Georgia in the SECCG, Miami loses to Clemson, and Wisconsin loses to Ohio State. Assuming Oklahoma wins out, there would be 6 one loss teams and I don't see how Ohio State could jump three of them to make it in. I'd also note that Oklahoma losing doesn't necessarily help Ohio State much, since it would tarnish their resume relative to other two loss teams and they still might not jump Oklahoma.
 
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LA4Bama

All-SEC
Jan 5, 2015
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Los Angeles, CA
Re: Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

The issue is that the committee doesn't show allegiance to the computers like the BCS did. Penn State and Ohio State have been highly ranked in Sagarin for a while, but the committee did not acknowledge that with their rankings. So yes I would say it's a long shot, but it is theoretically possible.

It is inevitable that the committee eventually places a two loss team over a power 5 one loss team. With their rankings, even their final ones, they have put teams with worse winning percentages ahead. But, is is interesting to note that as far as I can recall, they have yet to leave out a power 5 team with a better winning percentage than one of the final 4 teams. I don't think that's ever happened. So, Ohio State getting in is possible, but not likely.

The type of scenario that opens the door for Ohio State would likely be something like Auburn loses, Georgia loses, and Clemson loses (of course Ohio State would have to win). In that scenario the rankings would be something like Alabama, Miami, Oklahoma and then Ohio State could get into the final spot. The thing is, there is no guarantee that Ohio State jumps both Clemson and Wisconsin even if that scenario plays out. I'm still nervous that a one loss Alabama could miss out, and they certainly seem to have a larger margin of error.

There are also scenarios in which multiple teams ahead lose but Ohio State still gets completely roadblocked by one loss teams. For instance, let's say Alabama loses to Georgia in the SECCG, Miami loses to Clemson, and Wisconsin loses to Ohio State. Assuming Oklahoma wins out, there would be 6 one loss teams and I don't see how Ohio State could jump three of them to make it in. I'd also note that Oklahoma losing doesn't necessarily help Ohio State much, since it would tarnish their resume relative to other two loss teams and they still might not jump Oklahoma.
Look, I get ALL that. We discussed it in another thread. While anything can happen, the scenario I consider most likely is bama, Clemson and Oklahoma win. It comes to a choice of OSU or Miami. People were saying no chance for OSU. I disagree with that. Miami is vulnerable to one loss. The committee didn't like their resume before ND. If they don't beat Clemson and if OSU beats Wisconsin soundly, I have a feeling the cache of Barrett and Meyer will carry a lot of weight. There are going to be people in the committee room pushing for "the best team", aka the one they think has the best chance to beat Bama.
 

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