Week 12 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1! - Page 8
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  1. #92
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    Re: Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

    Quote Originally Posted by TomFromBama View Post
    Agree with all the above - and that's just the thing with the "Double Secret Committee" - the rationale and justification for their picks change with every situation.

    If it was Wake on an undefeated run and highy ranked, but they lost to Syracuse, you can bet they'd have TUMBLED in the rankings. Clemspon? a Media Favorite? Yea, not so much.

    Make all the tin foil hat jokes y'all want, I really don't mind. Maybe its a Total "Coincidence" - but so far, every time there's been a doubt in the final selections - my theories have explained the eventual results perfectly. Just sayin'.....
    What's a total coincidence ? You've been asked before, but nothing but silence, name one clear cut example of a final 4 ranking supporting a conspiracy ? Can you even name a weekly one this year ? They've actually been impressive this year.

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  3. #93
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Redwood Forrest's Avatar
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    Re: Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

    The "ace in the hole" seems to be Conference Champion, but not always -- just like the people who designed the committee wanted. They wanted the ability to override the polls and records, if need be.

    2016: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, OHIO STATE -- AT LARGE.

    2015: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan St, OKLAHOMA -- Big 12 Champion by record (8-1) but no championship game.

    2014: Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Florida St

    I am not implying that the committee was wrong or right -- just pointing out that 11 of the 12 Playoff teams were Conference Champions.
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  4. #94

    Re: Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

    Quote Originally Posted by Redwood Forrest View Post
    I am not implying that the committee was wrong or right -- just pointing out that 11 of the 12 Playoff teams were Conference Champions.
    One could easily argue that is incidental (and mind you I never wanted the playoff or the committee). You have to look at the alternatives, in which years was there a non-conference champion with as good a resume as one of the other playoff teams? I argued adamantly that Ohio State deserved to get in last year and the committee agreed. It should be noted that Ohio State was a three seed. So they didn't even squeak by, but the next best candidate was Penn State, and despite beating Ohio State and winning the conference, they had two losses.

    Back in 2015, Iowa and Ohio State both got left out with one loss. Neither were conference champions. However, a peak at the final SOS rankings reveals quite a gap: Michigan St. 30, Oklahoma 20, Ohio State 60, Iowa 52. While you could easily argue that the committee didn't choose the best four teams, the gap in SOS made their choice rather easy.

    2014 has probably been discussed the most, but the quality win/SOS component favored Ohio State after their conference championship game. You could argue the Big 12 mucked things up, but when Ohio State gains a quality win (and a big win at that, which the committee notes) and some daylight in terms of the SOS game, I think they made an otherwise difficult choice easy.

    To me, this is as much about the fact that a conference championship game gives a chance to gain in SOS and pick up a quality win as anything else. Just like current scenarios involving one loss Alabama and Georgia teams. Georgia has a better chance of getting in with one loss (but a more difficult path to avoid losing again) simply because the SECCG would boost their SOS and give them a chance for another quality win. If the scenario plays out that Auburn beats Alabama and then Georgia beats Auburn, I could see people saying Georgia gets chosen simply because of a conference championship. I would argue they'd get in ahead of Alabama in that scenario because of higher SOS and more quality wins.
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  5. #95
    BamaNation Hall of Fame B1GTide's Avatar
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    Re: Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

    Quote Originally Posted by TomFromBama View Post
    Make all the tin foil hat jokes y'all want, I really don't mind.
    Just having fun. Hope you weren't offended.


  6. #96
    BamaNation Hall of Fame selmaborntidefan's Avatar
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    Re: Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

    Quote Originally Posted by Redwood Forrest View Post
    The "ace in the hole" seems to be Conference Champion, but not always -- just like the people who designed the committee wanted. They wanted the ability to override the polls and records, if need be.
    Jeezus, y'all are becoming more incoherent with each passing post.

    1) How in the hell can they "override the polls" when they ARE the poll? This makes no sense whatsoever. Here's a concept you need to accept - those pre-season polls and rankings prior to committee are ALL fiction. They're NOT real, they don't exist, and they don't matter. CFB can't come right out and SAY this, but they don't.

    2) What record has been overridden? Penn St last year had a worse record than Ohio St did, which is the sole reason they weren't chosen.

    3) What caused the whole conference champion argument was 2011. Now I'm gonna remind everybody....both Nebraska in 2001 and OU in 2003 played in the BCS title game without even winning the division. It wasn't until the SEC did it that this suddenly became a problem.



    Quote Originally Posted by Redwood Forrest View Post
    2016: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, OHIO STATE -- AT LARGE.
    Ohio State had one loss just like Clemson and Washington did.

    On a serious note....can you tell me who was more deserving than Ohio St last year?




    Quote Originally Posted by Redwood Forrest View Post
    2015: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan St, OKLAHOMA -- Big 12 Champion by record (8-1) but no championship game.
    But why would you need a championship game when the conference already plays round robin?


    Quote Originally Posted by Redwood Forrest View Post
    2014: Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Florida St

    I am not implying that the committee was wrong or right -- just pointing out that 11 of the 12 Playoff teams were Conference Champions.

    I think the reason you're not implying the committee was right - and IN FACT they were in AT LEAST 11 of the 12 selections - is because it pretty much demolishes what you're repeatedly complaining about here.

    Keep in mind that any undefeated team is pretty much BY DEFINITION going to be a conference champion. So FSU (14), Clemson (15), and Alabama (16) were no-brainer selections. All three of these teams would have been number one (based on the other records) in ALL PREVIOUS polls used (BCS, pre-BCS AP, etc).


    But even then, MOST one-loss teams are going to win their conference titles, too. If they don't, it's almost always going to be because there's an unbeaten team that gave them that one loss that plays in the same conference.

    Conference championships are ONE PART of the entire discussion, and they should be. What should NOT be part of the argument is, "Well, Boise St won their conference against a bunch of nobodies so obviously they're better than one-loss Alabama," in 2011.

    I don't mind the flexibility (to a degree) to weigh factors, what I mind is that those factors are REALLY determined by "which team is a big name."


    Let's look at this whole thing from another perspective?


    HAS THERE BEEN A SINGLE TEAM PASSED OVER IN THE THREE YEARS OF PLAYOFF SELECTIONS THAT SHOULD HAVE MADE THE PLAYOFF?



    That - is the REAL question. And the answer is, "No, there is not."


    Not one team has a legitimate complaint along the lines of 1994 Penn St, 2001 Oregon, or 2004 Auburn.


    There's been ONE controversy, the Ohio State over TCU selection in 2014. And even then, I can't bring myself to say TCU got jobbed. They should have beaten Baylor, and they would have made the title game. And if TCU had been selected over Ohio St in 2014, the Buckeyes wouldn't have been jobbed, either.


    This is what I call the krazy3 BCS argument playing out totally. We've gone from arguing "who is the second best team" to "who is the fourth best team." And in all honesty at that point, I don't care.

    In all three years, we've gotten the TWO BEST TEAMS in the playoff. It doesn't really matter whether three and four were correct or not. What we've done is end the days of AP poll injustices.
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  7. #97
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Redwood Forrest's Avatar
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    Re: Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

    Selma: Jeezus, y'all are becoming more incoherent with each passing post.

    1) How in the hell can they "override the polls" when they ARE the poll? This makes no sense whatsoever. Here's a concept you need to accept - those pre-season polls and rankings prior to committee are ALL fiction. They're NOT real, they don't exist, and they don't matter. CFB can't come right out and SAY this, but they don't.


    LOL. Who is incoherent? You are arguing that polls do not exist and are all fiction! LOL.

    Selma: But why would you need a championship game when the conference already plays round robin?

    LOL. I did not say the Big 12 needed a championship game, did I? No.

    When I posted this I said, "Selma will find fault with this even though I did not offer any opinion. I only stated the teams and whether they were a conf. champ or not." I even noted at the end that I was not saying it was right or wrong. Selma, if you will let me know how I have offended you I will try to make it right with you.
    Last edited by Redwood Forrest; November 18th, 2017 at 11:20 AM.
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  8. #98
    BamaNation Hall of Fame colbysullivan's Avatar
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    Re: Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

    Quote Originally Posted by Redwood Forrest View Post
    Selma: Jeezus, y'all are becoming more incoherent with each passing post.

    1) How in the hell can they "override the polls" when they ARE the poll? This makes no sense whatsoever. Here's a concept you need to accept - those pre-season polls and rankings prior to committee are ALL fiction. They're NOT real, they don't exist, and they don't matter. CFB can't come right out and SAY this, but they don't.


    LOL. Who is incoherent? You are arguing that polls do not exist and are all fiction! LOL.

    Selma: But why would you need a championship game when the conference already plays round robin?

    LOL. I did not say the Big 10 needed a championship game, did I? No.

    When I posted this I said, "Selma will find fault with this even though I did not offer any opinion. I only stated the teams and whether they were a conf. champ or not." I even noted at the end that I was not saying it was right or wrong. Selma, if you will let me know how I have offended you I will try to make it right with you.
    You are still operating with the old college football mindset. The AP, USA Today, coaches, ESPN polls DO NOT MATTER. They are just for talking heads, they mean NOTHING, so they really don’t even exist.

    And Selma’s comment about the round robin schedule was referring to the Big 12, for crying out loud...

  9. #99
    BamaNation All-American Nolan's Avatar
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    Re: Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

    Quote Originally Posted by TomFromBama View Post
    Make all the tin foil hat jokes y'all want, I really don't mind.
    Don't worry pal, if we take any more injuries on defense I'm putting on a tin foil hat for that!

  10. #100
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Redwood Forrest's Avatar
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    Re: Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

    Quote Originally Posted by colbysullivan View Post
    You are still operating with the old college football mindset. The AP, USA Today, coaches, ESPN polls DO NOT MATTER. They are just for talking heads, they mean NOTHING, so they really don’t even exist.

    And Selma’s comment about the round robin schedule was referring to the Big 12, for crying out loud...
    You are correct, I meant Big 12. I did not say Oklahoma needed a championship game, I only pointed out they did not have a CG. I don't know how Selma got that I wanted a Big 12 championship game. I did not say that, this is what I said.

    2015: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan St, OKLAHOMA -- Big 12 Champion by record (8-1) but no championship game. Show me where I implied the Big 12 needed a Championship game? I just pointed out they did not have one.

    When did we get to place on TideFans that every single word and every letter is a point of arguing and contention?
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  11. #101
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    Re: Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

    We were discussing this in one of Selma's member berries threads, but it really belongs here. Where does OSU stand? Some consider them a long shot, whereas I do not. Of course they are far from a lock, and I won't be shocked if they don't make it in. But while they do badly in human polls, they are lingering close to the top of various metrics. They are fifth right now on Sagarin's computer rankings. I was poking around and saw they are second (second!) in ESPN's FPI, which is their objective measure of team strength. (note, this is last week's FPI)

    RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
    1 Alabama, SEC 10-0 12.0 - 0.6 40.3 40.5 52 28.5
    2 OSU, Big Ten 8-2 10.5 - 2.5 53.8 67.9 40 26.1
    3 Penn State, Big Ten 8-2 9.9 - 2.1 91.7 0.0 78 23.5
    4 Clemson, ACC 9-1 11.5 - 1.5 55.1 66.3 55 23.0
    5 Auburn, SEC 8-2 9.6 - 2.8 21.3 21.5 46 22.7
    6 Washington, Pac-12 8-2 9.9 - 2.2 78.0 7.0 43 22.6
    7 Georgia, SEC 9-1 11.1 - 1.9 26.4 38.0 20 21.9
    8 Oklahoma, Big 12 9-1 11.5 - 1.5 52.6 60.1 56 20.9
    9 Notre Dame, FBS Indep. 8-2 9.4 - 2.6 46.8 -- 35 20.6
    10 Wisconsin, Big Ten 10-0 12.0 - 1.0 21.3 32.0 17 20.0
    11 Oklahoma State, Big 12 8-2 9.9 - 2.3 68.8 11.0 82 17.6
    12 Miami, ACC 9-0 11.1 - 0.9 27.0 33.7 41 17.5
    13 TCU, Big 12 8-2 10.0 - 2.8 27.1 28.7 42 17.1


    Notice they are fairly far ahead of third place.

    As with the Sagarin rankings, so here, take it with a grain of salt. And yet, there has to be something behind these mathematical metrics.

    Meanwhile Miami is still undefeated but down at 12! If OSU wins out there are going to be some numbers people on that committee who argue they are the "better" team than Miami.

  12. #102

    Re: Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

    Quote Originally Posted by LA4Bama View Post
    We were discussing this in one of Selma's member berries threads, but it really belongs here. Where does OSU stand? Some consider them a long shot, whereas I do not. Of course they are far from a lock, and I won't be shocked if they don't make it in. But while they do badly in human polls, they are lingering close to the top of various metrics.
    The issue is that the committee doesn't show allegiance to the computers like the BCS did. Penn State and Ohio State have been highly ranked in Sagarin for a while, but the committee did not acknowledge that with their rankings. So yes I would say it's a long shot, but it is theoretically possible.

    It is inevitable that the committee eventually places a two loss team over a power 5 one loss team. With their rankings, even their final ones, they have put teams with worse winning percentages ahead. But, is is interesting to note that as far as I can recall, they have yet to leave out a power 5 team with a better winning percentage than one of the final 4 teams. I don't think that's ever happened. So, Ohio State getting in is possible, but not likely.

    The type of scenario that opens the door for Ohio State would likely be something like Auburn loses, Georgia loses, and Clemson loses (of course Ohio State would have to win). In that scenario the rankings would be something like Alabama, Miami, Oklahoma and then Ohio State could get into the final spot. The thing is, there is no guarantee that Ohio State jumps both Clemson and Wisconsin even if that scenario plays out. I'm still nervous that a one loss Alabama could miss out, and they certainly seem to have a larger margin of error.

    There are also scenarios in which multiple teams ahead lose but Ohio State still gets completely roadblocked by one loss teams. For instance, let's say Alabama loses to Georgia in the SECCG, Miami loses to Clemson, and Wisconsin loses to Ohio State. Assuming Oklahoma wins out, there would be 6 one loss teams and I don't see how Ohio State could jump three of them to make it in. I'd also note that Oklahoma losing doesn't necessarily help Ohio State much, since it would tarnish their resume relative to other two loss teams and they still might not jump Oklahoma.
    Last edited by KrAzY3; November 19th, 2017 at 04:55 AM.
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    "Four, five-star recruits are in Tuscaloosa, and then they see a stadium start emptying out at halftime"

  13. #103
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    Re: Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama in familiar spot at number 1!

    Quote Originally Posted by KrAzY3 View Post
    The issue is that the committee doesn't show allegiance to the computers like the BCS did. Penn State and Ohio State have been highly ranked in Sagarin for a while, but the committee did not acknowledge that with their rankings. So yes I would say it's a long shot, but it is theoretically possible.

    It is inevitable that the committee eventually places a two loss team over a power 5 one loss team. With their rankings, even their final ones, they have put teams with worse winning percentages ahead. But, is is interesting to note that as far as I can recall, they have yet to leave out a power 5 team with a better winning percentage than one of the final 4 teams. I don't think that's ever happened. So, Ohio State getting in is possible, but not likely.

    The type of scenario that opens the door for Ohio State would likely be something like Auburn loses, Georgia loses, and Clemson loses (of course Ohio State would have to win). In that scenario the rankings would be something like Alabama, Miami, Oklahoma and then Ohio State could get into the final spot. The thing is, there is no guarantee that Ohio State jumps both Clemson and Wisconsin even if that scenario plays out. I'm still nervous that a one loss Alabama could miss out, and they certainly seem to have a larger margin of error.

    There are also scenarios in which multiple teams ahead lose but Ohio State still gets completely roadblocked by one loss teams. For instance, let's say Alabama loses to Georgia in the SECCG, Miami loses to Clemson, and Wisconsin loses to Ohio State. Assuming Oklahoma wins out, there would be 6 one loss teams and I don't see how Ohio State could jump three of them to make it in. I'd also note that Oklahoma losing doesn't necessarily help Ohio State much, since it would tarnish their resume relative to other two loss teams and they still might not jump Oklahoma.
    Look, I get ALL that. We discussed it in another thread. While anything can happen, the scenario I consider most likely is bama, Clemson and Oklahoma win. It comes to a choice of OSU or Miami. People were saying no chance for OSU. I disagree with that. Miami is vulnerable to one loss. The committee didn't like their resume before ND. If they don't beat Clemson and if OSU beats Wisconsin soundly, I have a feeling the cache of Barrett and Meyer will carry a lot of weight. There are going to be people in the committee room pushing for "the best team", aka the one they think has the best chance to beat Bama.

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