Happened in 2014 and you watch, if they run the table with wins over Michigan and Wisconsin, they'll back in again at #4. Bank on it.
November 18, 2011: The Day The BCS Died (Iowa St Knocks Off Okie St)
- Thread starter selmaborntidefan
- Start date
Re: November 18, 2001: The Day The BCS Died (Iowa St Knocks Off Okie St)
That is because they are assuming Alabama will win out. If Alabama loses a close game to Auburn, you are still in ahead of Ohio State.
1 - Alabama
2 - Miami
3 - Notre Dame
4 - Ohio State
Oh... How I would love this. We could get revenge for 2014, and either shred ND again, or have a 25th anniversary title game with Miami.
2 - Miami
3 - Notre Dame
4 - Ohio State
Oh... How I would love this. We could get revenge for 2014, and either shred ND again, or have a 25th anniversary title game with Miami.
It would take a train wreck of 2007 proportions for Ohio St to make it into the playoffs.
1) Alabama
2) Miami
3) Oklahoma
4) Clemson
5) Wisconsin
6) Auburn
7) Georgia
8) Ohio St
To even have it happen, Ohio State must win and THEN....
1) Alabama HAS to beat Auburn (giving them 3 losses); a Tide loss will eliminate Ohio St 98% of the way
2) Alabama HAS to beat UGA, too
I mean, think about it: Ohio St needs to win out AND they need us to win out to give UGA and Auburn enough losses
They also really need:
1) Oklahoma to lose (because of the head to head and even that might not be enough)
2) Pitt to upset Miami
3) South Carolina to upset Clemson
4) Clemson to beat Miami
5) Minnesota to beat Wisky
I mean, this is like saying a team that's 14 games out in baseball with 15 to play is STILL not eliminated (because they're not), but I just don't see all or even most of these things happening.
An Alabama loss to Auburn, bizarrely, eliminates Ohio State.
1) Alabama
2) Miami
3) Oklahoma
4) Clemson
5) Wisconsin
6) Auburn
7) Georgia
8) Ohio St
To even have it happen, Ohio State must win and THEN....
1) Alabama HAS to beat Auburn (giving them 3 losses); a Tide loss will eliminate Ohio St 98% of the way
2) Alabama HAS to beat UGA, too
I mean, think about it: Ohio St needs to win out AND they need us to win out to give UGA and Auburn enough losses
They also really need:
1) Oklahoma to lose (because of the head to head and even that might not be enough)
2) Pitt to upset Miami
3) South Carolina to upset Clemson
4) Clemson to beat Miami
5) Minnesota to beat Wisky
I mean, this is like saying a team that's 14 games out in baseball with 15 to play is STILL not eliminated (because they're not), but I just don't see all or even most of these things happening.
An Alabama loss to Auburn, bizarrely, eliminates Ohio State.
Ohio State did not have two losses, one of them a 31-point blowout, in 2014.
The situations are not even close to being similar.
you say that, but we really have no idea what the committee will do. the one thing I do agree with is Alabama would have to win out.
You're sort of right here, but you're more wrong than right.
In point of fact, we can easily guess THREE of the four teams that will make it on the basis of how it plays out and not have much problem.
I've been clear from day one that my issue is their adopting arguments at one stage that they reject at a different stage. But here's what some folks seem to have a hard time grasping....just because their process is easily misused does NOT mean: a) they always misuse it or; b) they get the wrong teams.
The fear some folks have, I think, is, "Well, the committee can keep OU in on the basis of Ohio St winning the Big Ten title." Maybe......if OU didn't have a head-to-head win over Ohio State. In a lot of ways, this is like the 2011 BCS case where the fact Oregon had already lost to LSU by more points stifled the "rematch" talk by comparison of what it would have been. The head to head loss served as an effective boulder and completely prevented Oregon from being a feasible option over Alabama. Of course, there are two major differences, the committee as opposed to the computers (but this is not as big as folks pretend since 2/3 of the BCS formula was HUMANS who rated Alabama higher) and four teams rather than two.
But Ohio State right now is in the same shoes as a team that has a head to head intradivisional loss - it's effectively a THIRD strike against the Buckeyes unless OU loses their next TWO games. A two-loss OU is going into the playoff ahead of a two-loss Ohio State, bank on it. (Of course, this would not be true if OU had the same schedule but their name was Iowa St, but I digress).
At this point, I'd think the playoff shapes up as:
1) Alabama (yes, I think we're in win/lose against Auburn)
2) Clemson-Miami winner (unless one of them loses before then)
3) Oklahoma
4) Wisky if they're unbeaten, Miami (if it's their only loss), or SEC champ UGA/Auburn
I don't think the Big Ten makes it if Wisky loses.
While the committee has given some tortured reasoning for their rankings, that does not necessarily make the rankings wrong, it just makes the argument wrong.
Go back and look on the basis of what was done WEEK TO WEEK. I honestly can't think of a single poll that was so bad it made no sense.
I was coming home from Tuscaloosa and made it in time to see history. Oregon losing helped too.
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For OSU to have a chance, Alabama has to win out, but certainly can win out, eliminating AU and UGA. OSU can eliminate Wisconsin themselves. OSU would jump ND with an additional quality win. What else needs to happen? Miami and Clemson face each other. Miami winning gives Clemson two loses and no championship. Are people really assuming a Clemson win means two ACC teams make the playoff over OSU? I have serious doubts about that. Chaos in the Big12 is not necessary. People writing off OSU already are very premature. I think it would be a shame if OSU made it out of an overrated BIG10 with two losses and made it into the playoff, but I don't think it is really unlikely.
For what it's worth, here are Sagarin's top ten at the moment, not counting today's games.
1 Alabama A = 101.05 10 0 71.83( 49) 0 0 | 2 0 | 100.28 1 | 101.56 1 | 101.43 1
2 Clemson A = 94.80 9 1 78.57( 5) 1 0 | 5 0 | 93.81 4 | 95.02 2 | 95.75 3
3 Penn State A = 93.96 8 2 74.51( 27) 0 1 | 3 2 | 95.68 3 | 93.57 5 | 91.43 7
4 Auburn A = 93.86 8 2 75.71( 19) 1 1 | 2 2 | 92.81 5 | 93.55 6 | 95.31 5
5 Ohio State A = 93.67 8 2 74.62( 26) 1 1 | 2 2 | 96.77 2 | 94.54 3 | 89.29 11
6 Oklahoma A = 93.11 9 1 75.82( 16) 1 0 | 4 1 | 91.09 10 | 94.14 4 | 95.74 4
7 Wisconsin A = 92.85 10 0 69.42( 63) 0 0 | 2 0 | 91.43 9 | 92.73 7 | 94.93 6
8 Georgia A = 91.99 9 1 73.18( 39) 1 1 | 2 1 | 92.78 6 | 91.44 9 | 90.63 9
9 Miami-Florida A = 91.70 9 0 74.21( 32) 1 0 | 3 0 | 88.49 12 | 91.56 8 | 99.26 2
10 Notre Dame A = 91.49 8 2 78.49( 6) 0 2 | 4 2 | 91.52 8 | 90.75 10 | 91.31 8
Clearly there is something wrong with the computer, and yet, if OSU beats Michigan and Wisconsin, and Auburn loses, Ohio State is going to be in the top four here. I bet there are other metrics that put them higher than 9 at the moment too. I bet the committee knows this.
For what it's worth, here are Sagarin's top ten at the moment, not counting today's games.
1 Alabama A = 101.05 10 0 71.83( 49) 0 0 | 2 0 | 100.28 1 | 101.56 1 | 101.43 1
2 Clemson A = 94.80 9 1 78.57( 5) 1 0 | 5 0 | 93.81 4 | 95.02 2 | 95.75 3
3 Penn State A = 93.96 8 2 74.51( 27) 0 1 | 3 2 | 95.68 3 | 93.57 5 | 91.43 7
4 Auburn A = 93.86 8 2 75.71( 19) 1 1 | 2 2 | 92.81 5 | 93.55 6 | 95.31 5
5 Ohio State A = 93.67 8 2 74.62( 26) 1 1 | 2 2 | 96.77 2 | 94.54 3 | 89.29 11
6 Oklahoma A = 93.11 9 1 75.82( 16) 1 0 | 4 1 | 91.09 10 | 94.14 4 | 95.74 4
7 Wisconsin A = 92.85 10 0 69.42( 63) 0 0 | 2 0 | 91.43 9 | 92.73 7 | 94.93 6
8 Georgia A = 91.99 9 1 73.18( 39) 1 1 | 2 1 | 92.78 6 | 91.44 9 | 90.63 9
9 Miami-Florida A = 91.70 9 0 74.21( 32) 1 0 | 3 0 | 88.49 12 | 91.56 8 | 99.26 2
10 Notre Dame A = 91.49 8 2 78.49( 6) 0 2 | 4 2 | 91.52 8 | 90.75 10 | 91.31 8
Clearly there is something wrong with the computer, and yet, if OSU beats Michigan and Wisconsin, and Auburn loses, Ohio State is going to be in the top four here. I bet there are other metrics that put them higher than 9 at the moment too. I bet the committee knows this.
Would the committee put in a 2 loss OSU over a 2 loss Georgia or Clemson? How about a one loss Miami? Maybe - maybe not.
All correct.
It would depend on other factors, like how close the loss is and what else happens.
Let's assume this scenario has occurred so let's just say we're sure Alabama and OU are in, leaving two spots and Auburn, UGA, and (presumably) Wisky are eliminated.
If Clemson loses a second game........it kinda depends to whom, doesn't it? Clemson could conceivably lose to SCAR and knock off Miami and become a two-loss conference champion. If Clemson wins out, they're no doubt in.
If Clemson does win out then they're in as a one-loss conference champ and likely the #2 seed (assuming we win out).
So now you have one-loss Miami and OU........
Remember that Miami's SoS will go up a tad because they play Clemson but Ohio St's will also go up. If you have a one-loss Miami and two-loss Ohio State........with similar SoS.....who goes?
I'll grant Ohio St is the bigger draw, but who goes?
Note that I've NOT said it's IMPOSSIBLE. Ohio St is not totally dead yet, but they need a lot of help from other teams. Notre Dame, on the other hand, is dead and buried this year.
And then there's two-loss UGA as well.
I think Ohio St probably gets the nod but if they do on the basis that UGA's win over Notre Dame isn't so much does that mean Miami suffers, too? Probably.
I think Ohio St probably gets the nod but if they do on the basis that UGA's win over Notre Dame isn't so much does that mean Miami suffers, too? Probably.
As Selma said, there are variables we can't know until the games are played, such as how badly teams win and lose. But "maybe - maybe not" is a lot more reasonable than what was stated earlier in this thread to the effect that OSU is among the walking dead. For my part, I think the committee would respond to a superhero performance by Barrett as a positive if unwritten criteria. After all, Bama only loses to great QB play.
Dang. Iowa State played the upset 6 years ago to ruin the BCS and this year have upset 2 highly ranked teams only to lose to smaller teams later. Never regarded them as a good program before now but I am starting to wonder if they have a good program up their and just cannot get consistent.
I don't consider any team that loses that many games/year a "good team", especially when the losses are to bad teams. Upsets happen. It is a fluke that ISU has been a part of two this year.
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