Link: SDS article on bleak stat...

More #RatPoison. I love it. Someone PLEASE let the barn players know about this. They’ve all but won the game, and it’s only Monday


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It goes back further than this for us as a school.

There are many ways and reasons to spin it but we haven't beaten an honest to goodness VERY good AU team with 9 or more wins since 1994.

That game was even closer than it should have been and went down to the wire.

Then we should win, as a 2 loss team cannot be called honest to goodness very good team LOL

B1GTide said:

What has happened in previous years is not going to help the players on the field this weekend. You can also burn your lucky tee shirt - it isn't really lucky.

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B1G, you`re absolutely right about that..... and I plan to be in mine the entire day.

PA Tide Fan said:

Perhaps, but your Buckeyes have beaten Michigan 12 of the last 13 so I think it gives your team a big psychological edge going into that game on Saturday.

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Michigan has been a hot mess the last 13 years.

tusks_n_raider said:

It goes back further than this for us as a school.

There are many ways and reasons to spin it but we haven't beaten an honest to goodness VERY good AU team with 9 or more wins since 1994.

That game was even closer than it should have been and went down to the wire.

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AU was 9-0-1 coming into that game.

Yeah, Scab has been quick to spout this 'stat' this week too. But look at Saban's teams these years. Almost every one was sub-par by Saban standards (2013 being the only notable exception).

2000 LSU - 1st year at LSU, 8-4 team that also lost to UAB
2002 LSU - 8-5 team that also lost to Alabama 31-0
2004 LSU - 9-3 team (Saban's last at LSU) that also lost (badly) to UGA and Iowa. Beat Troy by 4, Ole Miss by 3, UF by 3, and Oregon State by 1.
2007 UA - 1st year at UA, 7-6 team with numerous player issues, lost also to UGA, FSU, Miss. St., and La-Monroe.
2010 UA - 10-3 team that also lost to LSU and USCe. AU had once-in-a-generation QB in Newton.
2013 - Only team on list with less than 3 losses and still got lit up by OK in bowl game. AU had to make most unlikely play in football to win.

The only team that remotely compares to 2017 is 2013. We may get beat Saturday but it won't be because AU has some magic win number. This is a really good AU team but its still the same one that let LSU's sorry offense get out of a 20-point hole and hang 27 on them in about 2.5 quarters - the same team we held to 10 and beat by 14. My only worry is how bad the injuries will affect us.

Here's the difference.
On Saturday. Forget the injuries, the what if's, the what might's, the what may be's.
Alabama is going to run onto the turf in Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Auburn is going to do the same.
They are going to hope like hell that they might have a chance to win.
We are going to EXPECT to kick their Tiger tails off.
And we will.
WE are better coached. We have better talent. We are the better team on both sides of the ball.
It's not close.
I predicted that the final score would be 35-15.
We'll score five touchdowns. They'll kick five field goals.
That's my attitude going into Saturday.
Roll Tide!
sip

And one more thing....since I am an absolute statistics freak.....(And I am)
No SEC team has ever won an Iron Bowl after getting beat by another SEC team that lost to Troy.
That percentage is 100%.

Special K said:

Yeah, Scab has been quick to spout this 'stat' this week too. But look at Saban's teams these years. Almost every one was sub-par by Saban standards (2013 being the only notable exception).

2000 LSU - 1st year at LSU, 8-4 team that also lost to UAB
2002 LSU - 8-5 team that also lost to Alabama 31-0
2004 LSU - 9-3 team (Saban's last at LSU) that also lost (badly) to UGA and Iowa. Beat Troy by 4, Ole Miss by 3, UF by 3, and Oregon State by 1.
2007 UA - 1st year at UA, 7-6 team with numerous player issues, lost also to UGA, FSU, Miss. St., and La-Monroe.
2010 UA - 10-3 team that also lost to LSU and USCe. AU had once-in-a-generation QB in Newton.
2013 - Only team on list with less than 3 losses and still got lit up by OK in bowl game. AU had to make most unlikely play in football to win.

The only team that remotely compares to 2017 is 2013. We may get beat Saturday but it won't be because AU has some magic win number. This is a really good AU team but its still the same one that let LSU's sorry offense get out of a 20-point hole and hang 27 on them in about 2.5 quarters - the same team we held to 10 and beat by 14. My only worry is how bad the injuries will affect us.

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Your review of those years explains it so well and like you mention 2013 is probably the outlier. Thanks for the mythbuster!

For anyone interested in trends: It is more pertinent that Bama has won 3 in a row, 7 of 9, and 3 of 4 in Jordan-Hare. Those have more relevance than something that happened in 1981. The 3 game streak not reaching 4 is particularly meaningless - how in the world does someone think that that matters. Bama is 34-13 when ranked, AU is 22-13 when ranked. Bama is 3-4 when both are in the top 10, 1-1 when both are in the top 5. Does that sound like Bama can't beat AU when they are good ? Why the cutoff at 9 ? etc. But, in reality, these particular "trends" mean nothing. Who plays the best on the LOSs, whose QB plays best, who has the best game plan, who makes the best adjustments, etc., as well as time and chance: that's what will determine the outcome. You can cite stats and trends on both side of the issue.

The reason AU won in 2010 was that they were the undefeated no 2 team in the country with a transcendent QB (who Bama stoned in the running game), Bama was no 11 and had 2 losses. The more interesting thing is that most people thought Bama would win. It took Ingram's crazy fumble roll, Richardson's easy drop and Barrons torn muscle, etc. for the no 2 team to beat no 11 by 1. Bama is a victim of its own success and peoples' expectations.

In 2013, AU was the no 4 team, Bama no 1. It took 1000 missed FGs by a kicker who was 10-12 coming in, an unfortunate late penalty, an unfortunate non-penalty on a guy 5 yards past the LOS which caused the DB to come up on a 39 yd TD pass to tie the game with 32 secs left, then a FG return to end the game. On the road.

In summary, it took many fortunate bounces for 2 of the best teams in AU history to beat 2 of the worst teams of Saban's current 10 year run. Obviously those were good Bama teams. AU has been fortunate recently, not only in-game, but that AU's best just happened in years when Bama was good but not quite as good as usual. This year it could be the same with the injuries. But it is not, or at least has not been to date, because Bama can't beat a good AU team.

Edit: After I finished my post I saw that Special K had made many of the same points.

TIDE-HSV said:

I'm not sure where you're getting this, but it's not from professional gamblers, who know that the odds are exactly 50-50 on each flip that a coin will turn up heads. I don't know of anyone knowledgeable who bets on freaky streaks...

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I don't know a lot of gamblers but I've read that some of them are somewhat superstitious and always looking for an edge. Some of them follow stats that we would consider nonsense. They look at silly stats like how a team does against the point spread at home, away, and how they do following weeks they play certain teams. Some strange streaks in college football continued this season with Florida beating UK for the 31st straight time although many felt this was UK's year to break it. Many felt that Georgia would beat Auburn but since that series started being played at Athens and Auburn no team has ever won 4 in a row unless the 4th game was played on their home field. This year Georgia was going for 4 in a row but the game was at Auburn so naturally Georgia lost.

As far as Auburn goes it may give them a more positive attitude if they hear what Finebaum said along with some other trends I read about. Of course I think Bama has more talent and can end the streak if the guys play their "A" game. All streaks do end sometime. If we do beat Auburn I feel good about the SECCG because we know Coach Saban is 11-0 against assistants.

BamaInBham said:

For anyone interested in trends: It is more pertinent that Bama has won 3 in a row, 7 of 9, and 3 of 4 in Jordan-Hare. Those have more relevance than something that happened in 1981. The 3 game streak not reaching 4 is particularly meaningless - how in the world does someone think that that matters. Bama is 34-13 when ranked, AU is 22-13 when ranked. Bama is 3-4 when both are in the top 10, 1-1 when both are in the top 5. Does that sound like Bama can't beat AU when they are good ? Why the cutoff at 9 ? etc. But, in reality, these particular "trends" mean nothing. Who plays the best on the LOSs, whose QB plays best, who has the best game plan, who makes the best adjustments, etc., as well as time and chance: that's what will determine the outcome. You can cite stats and trends on both side of the issue.

The reason AU won in 2010 was that they were the undefeated no 2 team in the country with a transcendent QB (who Bama stoned in the running game), Bama was no 11 and had 2 losses. The more interesting thing is that most people thought Bama would win. It took Ingram's crazy fumble roll, Richardson's easy drop and Barrons torn muscle, etc. for the no 2 team to beat no 11 by 1. Bama is a victim of its own success and peoples' expectations.

In 2013, AU was the no 4 team, Bama no 1. It took 1000 missed FGs by a kicker who was 10-12 coming in, an unfortunate late penalty, an unfortunate non-penalty on a guy 5 yards past the LOS which caused the DB to come up on a 39 yd TD pass to tie the game with 32 secs left, then a FG return to end the game. On the road.

I.e., it took many fortunate bounces for 2 of the best teams in AU history to beat 2 of the worst teams of Saban's current 10 year run. Obviously those were good Bama teams. AU has been fortunate recently, not only in-game, but that AU's best just happened in years when Bama was good but not quite as good as usual. This year it could be the same with the injuries. But it is not, or at least has not been to date, because Bama can't beat a good AU team.

After I finished my post I saw that Special K had made many of the same points.

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Your passion is absolutely beyond ridiculous, and I say that with nothing but positive compliments!
You have just demonstrated why the "Iron Bowl" is the greatest rivalry in all of sports.
It truly is.

I heard Scarb quote this stat—or trend—last night on The Zone. His inference was that Saban has beaten the barn when they are down but lost EVERY time to them when they’ve had a very good team(9 or more wins). The record is undeniable but I still think if Bama loses this weekend it won’t be because of the barn’s greatness but because of how thin we are on D due to all of the injuries.

This barn team is good, but they are not great and no where near the level of their 2005 or 2010 teams, which I would say are their two most recent best teams. I still think we were the better team in 2013, even though we lost the game.

PA Tide Fan said:

I don't know a lot of gamblers but I've read that some of them are somewhat superstitious and always looking for an edge. Some of them follow stats that we would consider nonsense. They look at silly stats like how a team does against the point spread at home, away, and how they do following weeks they play certain teams. Some strange streaks in college football continued this season with Florida beating UK for the 31st straight time although many felt this was UK's year to break it. Many felt that Georgia would beat Auburn but since that series started being played at Athens and Auburn no team has ever won 4 in a row unless the 4th game was played on their home field. This year Georgia was going for 4 in a row but the game was at Auburn so naturally Georgia lost.

As far as Auburn goes it may give them a more positive attitude if they hear what Finebaum said along with some other trends I read about. Of course I think Bama has more talent and can end the streak if the guys play their "A" game. All streaks do end sometime. If we do beat Auburn I feel good about the SECCG because we know Coach Saban is 11-0 against assistants.

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Regarding UGA not winning 4 in a row since...., a more important and relevant stat is that UGA had won 3 in a row and 9 of 11. But really neither mattered. AU was much better and it showed. Saban's streak over his assistants is because in each case he was a better coach, usually much better, and had more talent, usually much more - not because there is a hex involved.

B1GTide said:

What has happened in previous years is not going to help the players on the field this weekend. You can also burn your lucky tee shirt - it isn't really lucky.

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Pfft. Heretic.

BamaInBham said:

Saban's streak over his assistants is because in each case he was a better coach, usually much better, and had more talent, usually much more - not because there is a hex involved.

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Agree. I don't believe in hexes but I think it's at the point where Coach Saban's record against assistants does give him a huge psychological advantage in such a game. It can plant a defeatist attitude in the opponents mind even before the game starts where if something quickly goes wrong during the game the opponent may just give up.