How can Alabama make the playoffs even with an Iron Bowl loss

TomFromBama · Nov 22, 2017

bamacon said:
IF the committee is honest then a loss by us to number 6 team on the road that is CLEARLY effected by injuries would be given the same pass they have ALREADY ADMITTED given to Clemson for a HORRIBLE loss to Syracuse. I still think Wisconsin will be exposed by tOSU.

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Well, you've answered your own question with the bold text above.

Also agree with Selma about the "Injury" shenanigans.

I know my opinions on this aren't "popular", but my theories have matched the selections every year so far. Logic tells us that there's only one reason that ANY organization abandons ANY Transparent system for a non-transparent system. Period - its true whether you are talking about Sports or Politics or neighborhood homeowners associations. There's only ONE reason, and its NOT to generate results that are more "fair" or "honest" or "ethical".

Bottom line for Alabama this year is that our ONLY "Sure" path to the P_ayoffs is to WIN OUT. And that's Exactly what I EXPECT to see our guys do!

ANY other scenario has us behind a SERIOUS "8 Ball" and will require a LOT of help.

So just in brief - the scenarios:
(1) Beat aub and UGa - we are 100% "IN" .

(2) Beat aub but lose to UGa - we are 100% OUT. This exact issue is what nearly sunk the BCS back in the 2001 and '03 and caused a RE-WORKING of the BCS formula after the 2003 season. A Conf. Title game LOSER will Never make a 4 team P_ayoff _racket, at least not in the current system. In this scenario, UGa goes and we go home.

(3) Lose to aub (NOT what I'm predicting!!)
In this case the SECC Game winner is Almost certain IN, and then we've got TWO hurdles to overcome - a loss in the Last week of the season (Which is NEVER Forgiven as easily as an earlier loss) AND the problem of TWO teams from the same conference in a 4 team _racket. Remember, 2011 was the "horror" that CAUSED the creation of the P_ayoff in the first place - they aren't going to let it happen again IF it can possibly be avoided!!!!

aub (as SEC-Champ) gets in with two losses? Yea, I hate the thought of that too. But considering that aub, in this scenario, would have beaten TWO #1 teams and then beaten UGa (Likely #5) again - that's going to be a better "Resume" than anyone else has for November, and a tough one for the Committee to get past. (and Honestly, MOST of America would be so thankful to aub for handing us a loss, they'd DEMAND that aub get IN! :frown: )

Uga (as SEC-Champ) gets in? Even after that ugly loss to aub? Yep. They sure do. Beating aub in ATL will erase the stigma of losing so badly in November. It will be "written off" as a "Bad Day" and UGa at 12-1 strolls in - not as the #1 seed, but IN all the same.

CAVEAT. What if GaTech upsets UGa in a ROUT, aub beats us by one score (<7), then UGa beats aub in ATL by 1 score (<7)? That's one of those CRAZY scenarios where UGa MIGHT be left out, which means we'd have a chance - but it wouldn't be a "sure thing" by any means.

Flame away!

Cruiser · Nov 22, 2017

I am convinced the committee would do everything in it's power to keep out 2 teams from the same conference and the same division and the same state( especially the great State of Alabama) that just played and might present a rematch of all of the above.
So; In the words of the prophet Al Davis:JUST WIN BABY!

Ole Man Dan · Nov 22, 2017

UntouchableCrew said:
Agreed with what has already been said. SEC Champ and ACC Champ are in. If we fall to Auburn we need Wisconsin or Oklahoma to lose. An undefeated Wisco or a 1 loss Oklahoma are getting in.

I love our odds, personally. But who cares about that -- undefeated SEC Champ has a better ring to it anyway.

IMO: If we don't beat Auburn, It's over.
The Committee will have the excuse to put into play their version of Alabama Fatigue.
I see the Iron Bowl as a must win for Alabama or for Auburn.

BamaMoon · Nov 22, 2017

I haven't read the thread and I don't typically comment in threads that don't interest me. But I'm posting to say my gut reaction to this threads title is seems like we are preparing to lose the game Saturday instead of winning it.

Seems like something we'd see on a rivals page and make fun of them for discussing it.

If we lose, this might be worth talking about next week, but not right now IMHO.

37bamagreats55 · Nov 22, 2017

Win the game. Obviously, we control our own destiny.

selmaborntidefan · Nov 22, 2017

B1GTide said:
Because the loss occurred in Sept and both teams evolved. No team remains static. The teams playing this weekend are not the same teams that took the field in September.

It's not that I disagree, but I'm troubled by this whole notion of "a loss in September doesn't matter."

Hell, LSU lost to Troy in September and Michigan lost to App State in September.

Alabama lost to La Tech in September in 1999.

I'm just kinda wary of that argument. I know you're merely pointing out facts and not justifying it, but it still strikes me as suspiciously convenient.

Let me give a great counter-example: 2011 Penn State.

Yeah, they were terrible in November but for reasons beyond the norm.

selmaborntidefan · Nov 22, 2017

drwho said:
Pretty sure that's a reference to the CFP committee.

Wait.....so the committee that has ranked Alabama NO LOWER THAN SECOND the past 2 seasons, and the only one-loss team in the top four in 2015 starting from the first poll has something against Alabama....

Is THAT what's being suggested here?????

That's insane, people.

BamaInBham · Nov 22, 2017

selmaborntidefan said:
Not in ANY way to be argumentative (and I know you don't make the rules) but.....how in the world can two-loss Auburn - with ONE of those losses to Clemson - get in ahead of two-loss Clemson????????

(This RIGHT HERE is why the "conference champions" argument is fraudulent).

One reason is that AU would be a conference champion, another is that head-to-head is not a final arbiter (e.g., OSU/PSU last year), another is that Clemson's losses would be to Syracuse & Miami vs AU's being to Clemson & LSU, finally teams change over the season. Not that the Clem/AU game would not matter, but by itself it would not be enough. Any one of those reasons by itself would not be enough, but all of them make a compelling argument. Their final stretch run would be as impressive as any regular season/conf champ game finish I can remember. AU would have 3 wins over top 7 teams, plus MSU probably top 12 by then. As far as wins it would be far and away the most impressive in the nation. I don't care for AU at all, but IMO, they would deserve it.

rgw · Nov 22, 2017

I would stop bothering with making sense out of their decisions year to year or even week to week. They will come up with whatever field they think will put the most eyeballs on the screen that can be reverse engineered into "making sense."

Alabama will be in the field as long as they don't get blown out by Auburn or Georgia if the Big-12 and/or Big Ten knock themselves out. They'll figure out the reason in post but the reality is that we would be one of the four best teams and we produce more eyeballs (and there is 3 years of highly rated Alabama playoff matchups to prove the point).

BamaInBham · Nov 22, 2017

colbysullivan said:
This all boils down to “resume vs eye test”. Everyone knows Bama is one of the 4 best teams but they are looking for any excuse to keep us out. They keep saying our resume is horrible but they forget that we have pretty much dominated everyone except for one game.

We have to beat Auburn, plain and simple...

I disagree completely. Bama has been shown more respect than any other program to this point. I've seen no evidence of any agenda on the part of the committee. Maybe bad judgment, maybe bias at time, both of those are part of human nature that cannot be avoided. But a "secret" agenda to keep certain teams out or put certain teams in, I have not seen. I wish the conspiracy theorists (I'm not saying you are one) would make one argument that indicates this, just one.

And Bama does have a reasonable chance to get in even with a loss. Though I'm like most others and prefer not to address that issue unless it becomes necessary. Btw, I want to win an SEC championship and beat AU and keep those 2 streaks alive. And to have an undefeated season and to win one more game and...

RT27 · Nov 22, 2017

I reject the entire premise that we lose IB. I know everyone likes to play what if games. I refuse to even entertain the notion we lose IB, so therefore it is moot point. SO we beat AU, then doawg stomp UGA, we are in playoff. Seems real simple to me.

B1GTide · Nov 22, 2017

selmaborntidefan said:
It's not that I disagree, but I'm troubled by this whole notion of "a loss in September doesn't matter."

See, no one said that. What I said and this are not the same thing. Every game matters - but the entire season has to be placed into context. There is very little black and white - almost all shades of gray.

UntouchableCrew · Nov 22, 2017

Ole Man Dan said:
IMO: If we don't beat Auburn, It's over.
The Committee will have the excuse to put into play their version of Alabama Fatigue.
I see the Iron Bowl as a must win for Alabama or for Auburn.

I don't totally agree. We're far from a lock if we lose to Auburn, but I'm not sure a two loss Ohio State (for example) jumps us. Alabama commands a lot of respect.

PA Tide Fan · Nov 22, 2017

UntouchableCrew said:
I don't totally agree. We're far from a lock if we lose to Auburn, but I'm not sure a two loss Ohio State (for example) jumps us. Alabama commands a lot of respect.

Yes, if the committee has to make a borderline pick between a 2 loss Ohio State and a 1 loss Alabama I think they would choose Alabama. What happened last season may play into their thinking. We all remember they had to choose between Ohio State and Penn State. They chose Ohio State who then suffered a rather embarrassing 31-0 loss to Clemson. In hindsight I'm sure they wished they had chosen Penn State. So do they want to risk something like that happening with a borderline Ohio State team again? I don't think so. I think they'd take Alabama instead.

BamaInBham · Nov 22, 2017

PA Tide Fan said:
Yes, if the committee has to make a borderline pick between a 2 loss Ohio State and a 1 loss Alabama I think they would choose Alabama. What happened last season may play into their thinking. We all remember they had to choose between a 2 loss Ohio State and a 1 loss Penn State. They chose the 2 loss Ohio State who then suffered a rather embarrassing 31-0 loss to Clemson. In hindsight I'm sure they wished they had chosen the 1 loss Penn State. So do they want to risk something like that happening again? I don't think so. I think they'd take the 1 loss team this time.

Actually, they chose one loss OSU. PSU had won the conference champ and had beaten OSU head-to-head.

PA Tide Fan · Nov 22, 2017

BamaInBham said:
Actually, they chose one loss OSU. PSU had won the conference champ and had beaten OSU head-to-head.

Thanks, you're right. The loss to Clemson was their second loss. I'll edit my post.

techster79 · Nov 22, 2017

Can we delete this thread as it will no longer be needed [emoji57]

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selmaborntidefan · Nov 23, 2017

TomFromBama said:
So just in brief - the scenarios:
(1) Beat aub and UGa - we are 100% "IN" .

(2) Beat aub but lose to UGa - we are 100% OUT. This exact issue is what nearly sunk the BCS back in the 2001 and '03 and caused a RE-WORKING of the BCS formula after the 2003 season. A Conf. Title game LOSER will Never make a 4 team P_ayoff _racket, at least not in the current system. In this scenario, UGa goes and we go home.

A division title loser won it last year.......

TomFromBama said:
(3) Lose to aub (NOT what I'm predicting!!)
In this case the SECC Game winner is Almost certain IN, and then we've got TWO hurdles to overcome - a loss in the Last week of the season (Which is NEVER Forgiven as easily as an earlier loss) AND the problem of TWO teams from the same conference in a 4 team _racket. Remember, 2011 was the "horror" that CAUSED the creation of the P_ayoff in the first place - they aren't going to let it happen again IF it can possibly be avoided!!!!

2011 expedited it and it was no doubt important, but as B1G has pointed out, we were already on the fast track anyway as Congress was going to get involved.

TomFromBama said:
aub (as SEC-Champ) gets in with two losses? Yea, I hate the thought of that too. But considering that aub, in this scenario, would have beaten TWO #1 teams and then beaten UGa (Likely #5) again - that's going to be a better "Resume" than anyone else has for November, and a tough one for the Committee to get past. (and Honestly, MOST of America would be so thankful to aub for handing us a loss, they'd DEMAND that aub get IN! :frown: )

Uga (as SEC-Champ) gets in? Even after that ugly loss to aub? Yep. They sure do. Beating aub in ATL will erase the stigma of losing so badly in November. It will be "written off" as a "Bad Day" and UGa at 12-1 strolls in - not as the #1 seed, but IN all the same.

CAVEAT. What if GaTech upsets UGa in a ROUT, aub beats us by one score (<7), then UGa beats aub in ATL by 1 score (<7)? That's one of those CRAZY scenarios where UGa MIGHT be left out, which means we'd have a chance - but it wouldn't be a "sure thing" by any means.

Flame away!

No flame but win and we're in, and that's all we can ask for.

selmaborntidefan · Nov 23, 2017

BamaInBham said:
One reason is that AU would be a conference champion, another is that head-to-head is not a final arbiter (e.g., OSU/PSU last year), another is that Clemson's losses would be to Syracuse & Miami vs AU's being to Clemson & LSU, finally teams change over the season. Not that the Clem/AU game would not matter, but by itself it would not be enough.

If two teams have the SAME RECORD then I fail to see how one dismisses the head to head. That's what is so mind-boggling to me.

Even if Clemson DID lose to Syracuse and Miami, they STILL beat Auburn.....we don't get to go back and change history, and it's not like it was an overtime fluke play that won the game.

BamaInBham said:
Any one of those reasons by itself would not be enough, but all of them make a compelling argument. Their final stretch run would be as impressive as any regular season/conf champ game finish I can remember. AU would have 3 wins over top 7 teams, plus MSU probably top 12 by then. As far as wins it would be far and away the most impressive in the nation. I don't care for AU at all, but IMO, they would deserve it.

You make a sound argument here.

B1GTide · Nov 23, 2017

selmaborntidefan said:
If two teams have the SAME RECORD then I fail to see how one dismisses the head to head. That's what is so mind-boggling to me.

Even if Clemson DID lose to Syracuse and Miami, they STILL beat Auburn.....we don't get to go back and change history, and it's not like it was an overtime fluke play that won the game.

For me, if I was comparing a 2 loss Auburn and a 2 loss Clemson team, I would look at both of their seasons in their entireties, not just the one game played head to head. I have not really done so at this point so I don't know which I would land, but I would not make my decision based solely on an 14-6 outcome in September. Had the game been played in the last month or so it would be a slam dunk for me given how soundly Clemson beat Auburn (the score is not indicative of the beating that Auburn took in that game). But Clemson has regressed since then and Auburn has progressed.

Honestly, just based on watching them the last few weeks, I think that Auburn would beat Clemson if they played today.

How can Alabama make the playoffs even with an Iron Bowl loss

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