JessN: Auburn preview: Alabama gets its toughest test where it least wants to see it

JessN · Nov 22, 2017

Auburn preview: Alabama gets its toughest test where it least wants to see it
by Jess Nicholas
TideFans Editor-In-Chief
November 22nd, 2017 11:34 PM

If there has been one thing regarding SEC football that seems out of place in this era of Nick Saban’s domination at Alabama, it’s been that Auburn has not only survived in Alabama’s shadow, but thrived. Auburn has won a national title (2010), played for it a […]

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JBama_in_PCOLA · Nov 22, 2017

In the words of Dick Vitale - "OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH!"

I expect a barn burner. Now, take that for what it is worth. Great again, Jess. You consistently outdo yourself.

Jkl0802 · Nov 23, 2017

Thanks Jess, very informative assessment. I very much appreciate what you do each week.
Auburn always seems to play best when they are an underdog. I’m hoping that this year they really believe they have Alabama where they can get us...and we come out and play the best game of the year offensively and defensively, and we run away with the game! For everyone else out there, I do realize hope is not something you would bet your house on. But I do think if we turn Jalen lose with throwing and we run wide and throw to the flanks enough times (maybe the dreaded jet sweep or two)....we can loosen up Auburn’s defense and then start to run wherever we want. On defense, my greatest concern is Auburn throwing the deep ball against our man coverage; I hope we knock them down or intercept. I do believe we can limit their running game. Regardless of the outcome, Roll Tide Roll! We are undefeated AGAIN this year and there are no truer words than, “It’s great to be an Alabama Fan.”

TUSCALOOSAHONOR · Nov 23, 2017

Couple things... If Bama gets even a little bit of pressure on Stidham he becomes an average qb. Also the special teams part only talks about place kicking but doesn't take into account auburns lack of return defense which is abysmal. Add to it JK Scott's ability to not allow return yards on punts and the special team category turns in Bama's favor.

tusks_n_raider · Nov 23, 2017

I'm extremely intrigued over how you picked 18 points for them more than anything....lol

6 Carlson FG's??.... or 2 TD's with a 2-Point conversion and 1 FG???....or 4 Carlson FG's 1 TD and a missed PAT???....haha

JessN · Nov 23, 2017

tusks_n_raider said:
I'm extremely intrigued over how you picked 18 points for them more than anything....lol

6 Carlson FG's??.... or 2 TD's with a 2-Point conversion and 1 FG???....or 4 Carlson FG's 1 TD and a missed PAT???....haha

Probably a TD w/2-pt conversion to make it 18 (and within a FG of tying) rather than 17. I doubt either team gets many chances to score. Both defenses are very good.

JessN · Nov 23, 2017

TUSCALOOSAHONOR said:
Couple things... If Bama gets even a little bit of pressure on Stidham he becomes an average qb. Also the special teams part only talks about place kicking but doesn't take into account auburns lack of return defense which is abysmal. Add to it JK Scott's ability to not allow return yards on punts and the special team category turns in Bama's favor.

Uh, yeah I did mention it, actually:

"Auburn is slightly better than Alabama in the return department – and Alabama still has fumbling issues with Xavian Marks at punt returner – but the Tigers are shockingly horrid at covering kicks and punts. Given special teams has been a consistent hallmark for Auburn football for nigh 30 years, this is an unforeseen development to say the least."

Going to disagree on the outcome of that category, though, until we know what kind of placekicker Scott is. The times I've watched him kick field goals he's just been around a 50% kicker except in very close. Like I said in my above response to how Auburn would reach 18, I don't see either team getting very many chances to score. So to me, that puts even greater pressure on Scott to convert FG chances. What I'm afraid is going to happen is they're going to try to use an 85-percent Pappanastos and it's going to bite them.

That, to me, is far more important than is Auburn's struggles on return coverage. Alabama hasn't been a good kickoff return team against even the worst coverage units in years. Kenyan Drake was the lone exception to the rule, when he was the guy the ball came down to. Plus I don't see Auburn scoring often enough to make Bama's KOR team that much of a factor. Bama's punt return team has struggled in recent weeks, so how bad does it have to get before that negates Auburn's inability to cover?

Having a reliable FG kicker suddenly out or at least affected is hard to overlook. In the ST category evaluation, that's the most important position in the group (because the use of the kicker is a scoring play or at least a potential scoring play), followed by punter, then the return men, then the coverage units.

BamaGreek · Nov 23, 2017

I would take a close game win like Jess has it but I might have to take extra blood pressure med to get through it. I wouldn't want a situation that would allow Aub a chance to win or tie it at the end with a field goal. Auburn kicker is pretty much money. I tend to think Bama will just play a little bit better with enough in the 4th quarter to win by two scores, 27-18. As Jess alluded to, Jalen Hurts is our x-factor and the reason we will win the game in the 4th quarter, I hope. It's hard to go through scenarios on defense on the basis IF we get one, two, three or none back in the LB unit that are able to play quality snaps. Just have to watch the game and be amazed one way or another at how it unfolds. Add in the fact that Saban seemed to be pleased with the team this week in practice, so I like our chances. Let's all have a very Happy Thanksgiving weekend all the way through the Iron Bowl. This is a longer type post for me at 2:30 AM as I can't sleep and on Pain Meds from having arthroscopic hip surgery just 18 hours ago.

bamacon · Nov 23, 2017

One thing that gives me a little comfort (other than whiskey

) is that Bama’s lowest point total in games were 24 against FSU and LSU. Both were double digit wins. Against State two weeks ago it was a up and down slog where Bama still scored 31 points. Hopefully they will continue with that style of play. I really do think getting the LBs back will be a shot of enthusiasm and confidence if nothing else. Now go out and play like CHAMPIONS!!!! Roll Tide!!!!

Thx for all the write ups this season. They have been spot on and clearly reflect a lot of work and care. Hoping you get to write one for the Seccg and the playoffs!!!

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bamacon · Nov 23, 2017

One thing Jess, were you ever leaning at least a little the other way

?

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Saban4Ever · Nov 23, 2017

Nice job, Jess. Thanks for all you do. I will try to have a good day today and tomorrow and not worry about the game anymore until Saturday

Sure hope Andy Papponastos will be okay. I wonder if he practiced this week and how much? Hopefully JK Scott can keep his leg strong and accurate with double duties in the hostile environment.

TIDE-HSV · Nov 23, 2017

JessN said:
Uh, yeah I did mention it, actually:

"Auburn is slightly better than Alabama in the return department – and Alabama still has fumbling issues with Xavian Marks at punt returner – but the Tigers are shockingly horrid at covering kicks and punts. Given special teams has been a consistent hallmark for Auburn football for nigh 30 years, this is an unforeseen development to say the least."

Going to disagree on the outcome of that category, though, until we know what kind of placekicker Scott is. The times I've watched him kick field goals he's just been around a 50% kicker except in very close. Like I said in my above response to how Auburn would reach 18, I don't see either team getting very many chances to score. So to me, that puts even greater pressure on Scott to convert FG chances. What I'm afraid is going to happen is they're going to try to use an 85-percent Pappanastos and it's going to bite them.

That, to me, is far more important than is Auburn's struggles on return coverage. Alabama hasn't been a good kickoff return team against even the worst coverage units in years. Kenyan Drake was the lone exception to the rule, when he was the guy the ball came down to. Plus I don't see Auburn scoring often enough to make Bama's KOR team that much of a factor. Bama's punt return team has struggled in recent weeks, so how bad does it have to get before that negates Auburn's inability to cover?

Having a reliable FG kicker suddenly out or at least affected is hard to overlook. In the ST category evaluation, that's the most important position in the group (because the use of the kicker is a scoring play or at least a potential scoring play), followed by punter, then the return men, then the coverage units.

Um, Javier?

TIDE-HSV · Nov 23, 2017

BamaGreek said:
I would take a close game win like Jess has it but I might have to take extra blood pressure med to get through it. I wouldn't want a situation that would allow Aub a chance to win or tie it at the end with a field goal. Auburn kicker is pretty much money. I tend to think Bama will just play a little bit better with enough in the 4th quarter to win by two scores, 27-18. As Jess alluded to, Jalen Hurts is our x-factor and the reason we will win the game in the 4th quarter, I hope. It's hard to go through scenarios on defense on the basis IF we get one, two, three or none back in the LB unit that are able to play quality snaps. Just have to watch the game and be amazed one way or another at how it unfolds. Add in the fact that Saban seemed to be pleased with the team this week in practice, so I like our chances. Let's all have a very Happy Thanksgiving weekend all the way through the Iron Bowl. This is a longer type post for me at 2:30 AM as I can't sleep and on Pain Meds from having arthroscopic hip surgery just 18 hours ago.

Feel your pain. I had a THR a couple of years ago...

HMM · Nov 23, 2017

TIDE-HSV said:
Um, Javier?

He was awesome!

Krymsonman · Nov 23, 2017

Thanks Jess, great write-up as usual. I'll take a win any way I can get it! Krymsonman

Nolan · Nov 23, 2017

As most of us do, I look forward to your previews. This one was particularly well written. Nice job, Jess.

TideMom2Boys · Nov 23, 2017

Thank you for taking the time to write these. I always enjoy reading them. I will take a win like this. We know we are ready for a tight game if needed. I think the Mississippi State helped us there.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family!

BamaGreek · Nov 23, 2017

TIDE-HSV said:
Feel your pain. I had a THR a couple of years ago...

I had a psoas tendon release yesterday. The tendinosis in my iliopsoas tendon was a complication from the anterior approach a THR I had last December just before Christmas. I should be good in a few weeks. Right now I'm on crutches toe touch weight bearing and a hip brace to block flexing my hip for a couple weeks.

BamaMoon · Nov 23, 2017

It's been my experience that Jess is usually pretty conservative in his picks. Hardly ever goes with his gut and bases his outcomes on the facts/stats, etc.

I remember several times in the pre CNS era him picking Auburn when they were the better team.

Glad for this prediction and only hope the injured guys provide enough of a boost this 3 point prediction turns into a 8-10 point lead and comfortable outcome!

JessN · Nov 23, 2017

TIDE-HSV said:
Um, Javier?

In regards to punt returns, yes, but this was specifically about KO returns. Javy's career stats in kickoff returns for four years were bad, OK, OK and good. But he never returned a kickoff for a touchdown.

JessN: Auburn preview: Alabama gets its toughest test where it least wants to see it

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