There's no way to be happy about a game like the one Alabama just played. However, things are not necessarily as bleak as they might seem. Auburn is just one opponent of many, and while Alabama fans have an understandably emotional reaction to the loss, it still is just one loss. Also, while discussing what went wrong might be therapeutic, it overlooks the fact that Alabama is has still had a fantastic season and is very much in the playoff hunt. So, without further ado:
1: Alabama's odds of going to the playoff are still fairly good.
PA Tide Fan posted this chart which shows that Alabama still has around a 50% chance of making the playoffs. That's actually a better chance than Georgia. I had a spirited discussion about this scenario a few weeks ago. While I'd obviously have preferred Alabama just beat Auburn, Alabama sitting at home isn't necessarily a bad thing. The odds of Alabama beating Georgia in a must win game and Alabama getting into the playoff by sitting at home are fairly close to the same.
2: Alabama needs the rest.
If we want Alabama to get back on track and finish strong, that will be helped greatly by getting healthy. Alabama was banged up and it showed. Last year Alabama was undefeated heading into the SECCG, but they lost a key defender and lost in the playoffs.
3: We are in the playoff era. The regular season matters less.
We can try to inflate the importance of one game, but it was just one regular season game. Alabama's undefeated regular season last year didn't really mean much once they reached the playoff. If Alabama can make it into the playoff, this loss becomes pretty much meaningless.
5: Injuries are supposed to matter.
The committee is already on record as giving Clemson a bit of a pass for an ugly loss due to injuries. Losing at Auburn is hardly unforgivable, and if the committee factors in injuries they should be fairly forgiving.
4: Almost everyone has uglier losses.
I understand the logic that says Alabama doesn't deserve a shot at a championship because of the loss, but just look at the other resumes. Clemson lost to 4-8 Syracuse team! Oklahoma lost to a 7-5 Iowa State team! Miami lost to 5-7 Pitt team! Georgia got blown out by Auburn, and Auburn and Ohio State both have two losses. The fact is when you are looking at the loss side of the column, Alabama has the second best resume next to Wisconsin.
5: Things didn't turn ugly.
Georgia has a blowout to Auburn on their resume. While it would have been nice if Alabama could have at least scored once more, they didn't completely collapse and let Auburn put more points on the board. A fair evaluation of the game would reveal that Alabama played a bad game, but still had a chance to win. I'd also add that playing on the road clearly was a factor, as evidenced by the two bad snaps in a row.
6: Alabama could get a rematch with Auburn.
That might not sound terribly appealing right now, but in 2011 earning a rematch with an opponent turned out ok. It really isn't that far fetched that Auburn get in as a 3 seed and Auburn gets in as a 4 seed. As a matter of fact that's what 538 has as the likely scenario right now. If Alabama could shut up Auburn like they shut up LSU in 2011, that would be nice.
7: Alabama only has to focus on getting better.
There are things Alabama needs to improve and work on. They're not game-planning for Georgia right now so what else are they going to focus on? Either way, Alabama will have at least one more big game this year. They have time to address the issues with consistency on offense, and they also have time to get more of their defensive players game ready.
8: This is the year that the committee might be exposed as a farce.
If the committee finds a way to keep Alabama out this year, after putting in Ohio State last year, they'll have a lot of explaining to do. I'm not a fan of the committee, I think the old BCS system should have been retained. If the committee pulls any shenanigans, they'll end up looking pretty bad. I'd like to see the committee get replaced by something like the BCS formula, so if they do something inexplicable in the least that could undermine their authority.
9: Alabama would probably be sitting pretty in 4 team BCS standings.
This might not sound important, but remember the BCS used some formulas and data via their computers that the committee is bound to take a look at. For instance, Sagarin still has Alabama ranked #1. The coaches poll also can't drop Alabama too far. Alabama was #1, Miami was #2, and it seems like the worst Alabama should fall to would be 4th or 5th. The main takeaway is that in order for the committee to leave out Alabama, they'll have to break from the BCS, perhaps significantly.
10: The linebackers are back.
The destruction of inferior opponents masked the fact that Alabama didn't really dominate in a lot of their tougher games. A big part of that was the missing linebackers. There was no way to expect the returning linebackers to be anywhere near 100% against Auburn, but there's plenty of reason to believe they'll be at or near 100% whenever Alabama plays their next post season game.
Nick Saban is 125-20 at Alabama, with 5 SEC Championships and 4 National Championships.
Sometimes it helped to remind ourselves of that fact.
I could go on, but you get the point. It isn't all bad, and it is entirely possible that this loss work out for the best.
1: Alabama's odds of going to the playoff are still fairly good.
PA Tide Fan posted this chart which shows that Alabama still has around a 50% chance of making the playoffs. That's actually a better chance than Georgia. I had a spirited discussion about this scenario a few weeks ago. While I'd obviously have preferred Alabama just beat Auburn, Alabama sitting at home isn't necessarily a bad thing. The odds of Alabama beating Georgia in a must win game and Alabama getting into the playoff by sitting at home are fairly close to the same.
2: Alabama needs the rest.
If we want Alabama to get back on track and finish strong, that will be helped greatly by getting healthy. Alabama was banged up and it showed. Last year Alabama was undefeated heading into the SECCG, but they lost a key defender and lost in the playoffs.
3: We are in the playoff era. The regular season matters less.
We can try to inflate the importance of one game, but it was just one regular season game. Alabama's undefeated regular season last year didn't really mean much once they reached the playoff. If Alabama can make it into the playoff, this loss becomes pretty much meaningless.
5: Injuries are supposed to matter.
The committee is already on record as giving Clemson a bit of a pass for an ugly loss due to injuries. Losing at Auburn is hardly unforgivable, and if the committee factors in injuries they should be fairly forgiving.
4: Almost everyone has uglier losses.
I understand the logic that says Alabama doesn't deserve a shot at a championship because of the loss, but just look at the other resumes. Clemson lost to 4-8 Syracuse team! Oklahoma lost to a 7-5 Iowa State team! Miami lost to 5-7 Pitt team! Georgia got blown out by Auburn, and Auburn and Ohio State both have two losses. The fact is when you are looking at the loss side of the column, Alabama has the second best resume next to Wisconsin.
5: Things didn't turn ugly.
Georgia has a blowout to Auburn on their resume. While it would have been nice if Alabama could have at least scored once more, they didn't completely collapse and let Auburn put more points on the board. A fair evaluation of the game would reveal that Alabama played a bad game, but still had a chance to win. I'd also add that playing on the road clearly was a factor, as evidenced by the two bad snaps in a row.
6: Alabama could get a rematch with Auburn.
That might not sound terribly appealing right now, but in 2011 earning a rematch with an opponent turned out ok. It really isn't that far fetched that Auburn get in as a 3 seed and Auburn gets in as a 4 seed. As a matter of fact that's what 538 has as the likely scenario right now. If Alabama could shut up Auburn like they shut up LSU in 2011, that would be nice.
7: Alabama only has to focus on getting better.
There are things Alabama needs to improve and work on. They're not game-planning for Georgia right now so what else are they going to focus on? Either way, Alabama will have at least one more big game this year. They have time to address the issues with consistency on offense, and they also have time to get more of their defensive players game ready.
8: This is the year that the committee might be exposed as a farce.
If the committee finds a way to keep Alabama out this year, after putting in Ohio State last year, they'll have a lot of explaining to do. I'm not a fan of the committee, I think the old BCS system should have been retained. If the committee pulls any shenanigans, they'll end up looking pretty bad. I'd like to see the committee get replaced by something like the BCS formula, so if they do something inexplicable in the least that could undermine their authority.
9: Alabama would probably be sitting pretty in 4 team BCS standings.
This might not sound important, but remember the BCS used some formulas and data via their computers that the committee is bound to take a look at. For instance, Sagarin still has Alabama ranked #1. The coaches poll also can't drop Alabama too far. Alabama was #1, Miami was #2, and it seems like the worst Alabama should fall to would be 4th or 5th. The main takeaway is that in order for the committee to leave out Alabama, they'll have to break from the BCS, perhaps significantly.
10: The linebackers are back.
The destruction of inferior opponents masked the fact that Alabama didn't really dominate in a lot of their tougher games. A big part of that was the missing linebackers. There was no way to expect the returning linebackers to be anywhere near 100% against Auburn, but there's plenty of reason to believe they'll be at or near 100% whenever Alabama plays their next post season game.
Nick Saban is 125-20 at Alabama, with 5 SEC Championships and 4 National Championships.
Sometimes it helped to remind ourselves of that fact.
I could go on, but you get the point. It isn't all bad, and it is entirely possible that this loss work out for the best.
