News Article: 538.com analysis: How Bama and OSU can crash the party

BamaNation · Nov 30, 2017

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...someone-else-can-crash-the-playoff/?appsrc=sc

Not a huge fan of 538 because it’s kind of a black box and occasionally confusing - and wrong - but at least it’s not just yet another “I believe..., I think...” nonsense. Looks like about a 30-40% best case chance overall depending on the chain of probabilities but if OSU and TCU win looks like our best chance to make it.

Fairly interesting nonetheless to ponder all the possible scenarios.

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BigAlinKnoxville · Nov 30, 2017

That's nice, and thanks. One thing I wish they would do, though, is also set it up to give stats where both Wisconsin and Oklahoma lose, etc...

Of course, that would take a lot of calculation if doing it for every team involved. One thing I found interesting is that a Georgia win gives us about a 1% better chance than an Auburn win.

So that means.....we don't have to hold our noses and pull for the Barn this weekend!

JustNeedMe81 · Nov 30, 2017

I have issue with the website. I've played with all different scenarios... and it didn't just add up right. The way they ranked the teams website actually does affect their chance of making the playoff in some way. So for example, If all the right teams win on Saturday ( Clemson, TCU, Auburn and Ohio State) It shows Ohio State having 78 percent getting in, while Alabama has 49 percent. That didn't seem right to me.

But if Clemson, Wisconsin, TCU and Auburn wins... Then Bama gets in at 50 percent. Weird?

I like the website, but it's very inconsistent after looking from Week 1 to now.

KrAzY3 · Nov 30, 2017

"Bama’s playoff chances would be about 18 percentage points higher with a win by the Buckeyes than a win by the Badgers."
This is disturbing and should be illogical. It's basically saying there's a 82% chance a two loss team jumps Alabama.

"Bama would see its CFP chances swell from 30 percent to 48 percent if TCU beats Oklahoma"
Wait, same thing again, 18% points higher. So still saying a two loss team probably jumps Alabama?

B1GTide · Nov 30, 2017

BamaNation said:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...someone-else-can-crash-the-playoff/?appsrc=sc

Not a huge fan of 538 because it’s kind of a black box and occasionally confusing - and wrong - but at least it’s not just yet another “I believe..., I think...” nonsense. Looks like about a 30-40% best case chance overall depending on the chain of probabilities but if OSU and TCU win looks like our best chance to make it.

Fairly interesting nonetheless to ponder all the possible scenarios.

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These stats are pure garbage. Pure garbage. If TCU wins Alabama has a 100% chance of making the playoffs no matter what else happens.

JustNeedMe81 · Nov 30, 2017

BigAlinKnoxville said:
That's nice, and thanks. One thing I wish they would do, though, is also set it up to give stats where both Wisconsin and Oklahoma lose, etc...

Of course, that would take a lot of calculation if doing it for every team involved. One thing I found interesting is that a Georgia win gives us about a 1% better chance than an Auburn win.

So that means.....we don't have to hold our noses and pull for the Barn this weekend!

IMO,

First game is TCU and Oklahoma at 11:30 am. if TCU wins... Makes it easier for the team to relax and not having to worry all day long.

BamaNation · Nov 30, 2017

B1GTide said:
These stats are pure garbage. Pure garbage. If TCU wins Alabama has a 100% chance of making the playoffs no matter what else happens.

I generally agree on your stats take and I would like to believe that we are in with a TCU win but there is a committee of humans involved with all of the biases and thoughts they bring with them. This could be the year they send the “you gotta be a champion” message and, in effect, credit Coach Saban with something he didn’t say (regarding conference champion being most important qualification - as is being totally misreported by ESPN and others. )

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JustNeedMe81 · Nov 30, 2017

BamaNation said:
I generally agree on your stats take and I would like to believe that we are in with a TCU win but there is a committee of humans involved with all of the biases and thoughts they bring with them. This could be the year they send the “you gotta be a champion” message and, in effect, credit Coach Saban with something he didn’t say (regarding conference champion being most important qualification - as is being totally misreported by ESPN and others. )

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They did that last year.

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KrAzY3 · Nov 30, 2017

JustNeedMe81 said:
They did that last year.

Last year they sent the clear, and logical message that even if you win head to head, even if you win a conference, losses matter. Ohio State got in while 2 loss conference champion that beat them sat at home. It was the right thing to do to, because Penn State lost when they shouldn't have, and erased their "lead" over Ohio State. Well, now the committee has gone out there and declared that Alabama has no lead over Ohio State (stating 5-8 are basically the same). It doesn't make sense when contrasted with last season and one can only hope he misspoke...

BamaNation · Nov 30, 2017

But being a point of emphasis on this year given we are out. I don’t think the committee actually has any real rules regardless of what they say. It’s a tossup no matter and as stated earlier, glad the TCU OU game is early.

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B1GTide · Nov 30, 2017

BamaNation said:
I generally agree on your stats take and I would like to believe that we are in with a TCU win but there is a committee of humans involved with all of the biases and thoughts they bring with them. This could be the year they send the “you gotta be a champion” message and, in effect, credit Coach Saban with something he didn’t say (regarding conference champion being most important qualification - as is being totally misreported by ESPN and others. )

I understand the trepidation, but the conference champions available for that spot would be TCU and USC - currently ranked 11th an 10th respectively. Reason dictates that the current ranking represents the committee's line of thinking with respect contention for the CFP, and that puts USC and TCU out of the race. So the team that is awarded the 4th playoff spot cannot be a conference champion.

So, if TCU wins, a non-conference champion is getting that spot - guaranteed. The only other non-conference champion capable of only having one loss at that point would be Wisconsin. They are currently only ranked 1 spot ahead of Alabama as an undefeated team, and they have the worst resume of any P5 team in the top 25. They would drop out of contention.

So, yes, if TCU wins, Alabama is in. We don't need math to help there - just common sense.

B1GTide · Nov 30, 2017

BamaNation said:
But being a point of emphasis on this year given we are out. I don’t think the committee actually has any real rules regardless of what they say. It’s a tossup no matter and as stated earlier, glad the TCU OU game is early.

I agree that they have no rules that they must abide by, but they have used common sense in the past. Until they stop doing so, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. I mean, they have matched the BCS every year, and the current rankings match the BCS. It's not like that have gotten flaky this year. The media has, but the committee has not.

DzynKingRTR · Nov 30, 2017

B1GTide said:
I understand the trepidation, but the conference champions available for that spot would be TCU and USC - currently ranked 11th an 10th respectively. Reason dictates that the current ranking represents the committee's line of thinking with respect contention for the CFP, and that puts USC and TCU out of the race. So the team that is awarded the 4th playoff spot cannot be a conference champion.

So, if TCU wins, a non-conference champion is getting that spot - guaranteed. The only other non-conference champion capable of only having one loss at that point would be Wisconsin. They are currently only ranked 1 spot ahead of Alabama as an undefeated team, and they have the worst resume of any P5 team in the top 25. They would drop out of contention.

So, yes, if TCU wins, Alabama is in. We don't need math to help there - just common sense.

You are assuming this committee actually has common sense.

BamaNation · Nov 30, 2017

To paraphrase Yogi, “We ain’t in til we in”

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B1GTide · Nov 30, 2017

DzynKingRTR said:
You are assuming this committee actually has common sense.

Show me a single top 4 poll that didn't make sense. Any one, from any year.

ETA - I can't believe that I am defending a committee that I don't even want, but it seems fair since they have gotten it right to date.

KrAzY3 · Nov 30, 2017

B1GTide said:
Show me a single top 4 poll that didn't make sense. Any one, from any year.

This one. Up until then I'd agree with you. But this one I am adamantly against. If that was a two loss Alabama team sitting at #2 I'd have a problem with it to. And I know people are giving Auburn credit for two great games, and they deserve a lot of credit. They still lost twice. It's not the only time a team has knocked off a couple highly rated teams in a season. It's not as unprecedented as some are leading us to believe, and that alone shouldn't be an immediate qualifier for a championship. I bet if you look hard enough you'll find some mediocre team that knocked off a couple highly ranked teams. I was conceding them a spot in the top four, but not at #2, no way.

B1GTide · Nov 30, 2017

KrAzY3 said:
This one. Up until then I'd agree with you. But this one I am adamantly against. If that was a two loss Alabama team sitting at #2 I'd have a problem with it to. And I know people are giving Auburn credit for two great games, and they deserve a lot of credit. They still lost twice. It's not the only time a team has knocked off a couple highly rated teams in a season. It's not as unprecedented as some are leading us to believe, and that alone shouldn't be an immediate qualifier for a championship. I bet if you look hard enough you'll find some mediocre team that knocked off a couple highly ranked teams. I was conceding them a spot in the top four, but not at #2, no way.

You are picking nits - the BCS has the same top 4, and there are 4 playoff spots. That is the only important thing - giving the 4 best teams a chance to play for the title. Aside from #1, the order does not matter. Only #1 gets anything special (plays on the field closest to its home state in round 1).

TomFromBama · Nov 30, 2017

B1GTide said:
I agree that they have no rules that they must abide by, but they have used common sense in the past. Until they stop doing so, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. I mean, they have matched the BCS every year, and the current rankings match the BCS. It's not like that have gotten flaky this year. The media has, but the committee has not.

Yea BUT - this is sort of a HUGE PET PEEVE of mine. We see all these articles that say "Committee matches mock BCS" - but IMO that claim is Extremely DUBIOUS, and here's why -

Post the 2003 correction to the BCS Formula, 2/3 was based on the two Human Polls. BUT here's the TWO problems:

(1) - ONE of the Polls, Harris NO LONGER EXISTS, and
(2) the two remaining polls are both heavily BIASED after 2014 to match the Committee poll.

This is human nature, because the AP and Coaches Poll voters are ACCOUNTABLE for their votes, whereas the Individual Committee members are NOT. Since the Public "ASSUMES" the Committee is 100% correct, the human Poll voters are LOATH to be found in disagreement with the committee, so consciously or not, the AP and Coaches polls EVERY YEAR come into conformity with the Committee Poll.

This means ANY Possible "BCS Proxy" is already 2/3 infected with BIAS in favor of the Committee.

That's why its Dubious to claim the Committee ever agrees with what the BCS Might have been, in an environment where the polls were not Predisposed to AGREE with the Committee.

KrAzY3 · Nov 30, 2017

B1GTide said:
You are picking nits

Admittedly so, but to me once you put a two loss power 5 team over an undefeated one, you have opened Pandora's box. This was something not seen since the 1940s, and while I desperately hope it is indeed an aberration, if it's a trend, well that might be good for Ohio State this year, but I think it's bad for college football. Wins and losses mattering make the regular season so important, if that changes, if it becomes some RPI like stat, where who you played means more than actually winning or losing... the college football regular season will never be the same again.

B1GTide · Nov 30, 2017

TomFromBama said:
Yea BUT - this is sort of a HUGE PET PEEVE of mine. We see all these articles that say "Committee matches mock BCS" - but IMO that claim is Extremely DUBIOUS, and here's why -

Post the 2003 correction to the BCS Formula, 2/3 was based on the two Human Polls. BUT here's the TWO problems:

(1) - ONE of the Polls, Harris NO LONGER EXISTS, and
(2) the two remaining polls are both heavily BIASED after 2014 to match the Committee poll.

This is human nature, because the AP and Coaches Poll voters are ACCOUNTABLE for their votes, whereas the Individual Committee members are NOT. Since the Public "ASSUMES" the Committee is 100% correct, the human Poll voters are LOATH to be found in disagreement with the committee, so consciously or not, the AP and Coaches polls EVERY YEAR come into conformity with the Committee Poll.

This means ANY Possible "BCS Proxy" is already 2/3 infected with BIAS in favor of the Committee.

That's why its Dubious to claim the Committee ever agrees with what the BCS Might have been, in an environment where the polls were not Predisposed to AGREE with the Committee.

Fair.

News Article: 538.com analysis: How Bama and OSU can crash the party

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