Let’s Talk About Georgia/Oklahoma

Georgia will beat UO (I’ll never call them “OU,” it’s stupid. They’re the university of Oklahoma, not Oklahoma university) in a close one, not. UGA 31 - UO 17

GrayTide said:

I said I favored OU in a close game, but will add this caveat. IF UGA can sustain long, time consuming drives and get points, keeping Mayfield on the bench, then they can win. They however cannot win in an offensive shootout. BTW this the same recipe for Alabama beating Clemson.

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It does seem the way to beat these high powered Offenses is to just keep them off the field. Sustain drives and slow the game down.

deliveryman35 said:

1984 BYU, but I get your overall point. Most of the time in this regard your premise has been correct.

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But that was an accident of poll history that isn’t overly applicable.

I’m not saying you’re wrong - the beauty now is the games will be played. I’m just going off what has too often been the case.

If OU even had a minimally competent defense, I’d favor them. But I think their sieve is too much if UGA can keep the running game going.


Again - at least we get to see firsthand.

The beauty of this playoff is that I think any of the four can win it all. Alabama is being discounted because of how they looked in November and all of the injuries. But this is a talented team with a major chip on its shoulder. The team got a golden ticket despite the loss to Auburn and it will interesting to see how they take advantage of the opportunity. This may be Hurts' last stand as Alabama's QB. If he loses, I think he is replaced by Tua. As for Oklahoma and Georgia, I think Georgia is the better overall team but Mayfield has the clear edge in the QB comparison. Fromm is talented but I'm not sure he can win a shootout with Oklahoma if it comes down to that. Mayfield is so brazen and daring. Reminds me of Brett Favre.

A lot of people seem to think that Georgia can just run right through Oklahoma and thus control the clock and keep Mayfield off the field, but I'm not so sure. Looking at the stats OU is ranked 37th in rushing defense (respectable), while ranked 82nd in pass defense (poor). If Georgia had a more balanced attack then I'd say OU would be in a heap of trouble, however it looks like if OU loads the box they have a reasonable chance of slowing the Georgia running game and forcing Fromm to beat them through the air. I'm not sure Fromm would be up to the task in that situation.

Every time I watched a Big 12 team play this year, I was disgusted by how soft the defenses played. Yes, Mayfield and company are high octane, but I think Georgia will outscore them because the Sooner defense is not good.

Same formula. Oklahoma will try to force Fromm to beat them with his arm. Maybe he can, maybe he can't. He doesn't have to be brilliant, just competent. It's going to be interesting.

Oklahoma hasn't seen a front seven like Georgia's. Baker looks good when he's running in the open field and hitting receivers running wide open. Let's see how Heisman-esque he looks when he's running for his life.

BradtheImpaler said:

Oklahoma hasn't seen a front seven like Georgia's. Baker looks good when he's running in the open field and hitting receivers running wide open. Let's see how Heisman-esque he looks when he's running for his life.

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Oklahoma's offensive line is one of the best in the nation and their tight end reminds me of Jason Witten. Their line rivals any of the best in the SEC. The left tackle, Orlando Brown, is a first round pick. He's like 6-8, 340.

81usaf92 said:

Add the 2015 OU team to that list.

UGA 38-23

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Well, yeah, but that OU team was four seed and had lost to a mediocre Texas team.

On the flip side, they were favored......

deliveryman35 said:

Their O line is BETTER than any in the SEC.

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Wrong - Alabama's is considerably better.

deliveryman35 said:

Their O line is BETTER than any in the SEC.

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Their Oline has looked better than any in the SEC all year against inferior competition. We will see if it is still regarded so highly after January 1st.

PA Tide Fan said:

As in the other thread I'll say that although I'm rooting for Georgia I think Oklahoma wins. No comparison at QB and Oklahoma will be out to prove they can play some D. They did hold #5 OSU to 16 points at Columbus.

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Here's how I would evaluate this using only statistics..

OU gets 44.9 ppg but allotting for the cupcakes it's 42.9, which is still great.

Ohio State averages 42.5 ppg and Oklahoma held them to 16. This suggests they played one helluva game against Ohio State.


WVA scores 36.3 ppg and were held to 31 (about expected)
TCU gets 33.2 ppg and scored 20 and 17.
OK St scores 46.3 and got 52.......and you have to remember each of these averages is inflated by the cupcake games (usually). So this would be a below average performance for OU.
Kansas State scores 32 ppg and got 35.
Iowa St scores 29.9 ppg and got 38
Baylor averages 24 and got 41 (meaning the OU D was terrible)
Texas averaged 29.2 but that number is slightly inflated by one game - and they scored 24.
Kansas averages 18 ppg and got 3.
Texas Tech scores 34 and got 27...and that 34 is inflated by their first two games, which gives you a 'real' score of 30.7.


In other words, OU BASICALLY gives up right at what a team's offense averages scoring anyway.

OU gives up 25 ppg......UGA scores 34.9 ppg.

Georgia is going to score at least 30 points on Oklahoma (by statistical analysis).

Georgia gives up 13 ppg.

They held Missouri double digits below their season avg (which is what I look for - did you hold a team TEN POINTS or more below its average)

They held Notre Dame (35 ppg) to 16 below their normal.

They held Auburn double digits below their normal the second time (indeed - that one game is the anomaly for UGA).

The held MSU to 28 points below their season average.

They held Ga Tech to 21 points below their average.

They held UK 12 below theirs.

They held Vandy 10 below.

They held SCAR 14 below theirs.

Florida 15 below. The Vols 19 below.



I realize it's tempting to look at UGA and say, "Well, their defensive stats are inflated because they didn't play good offenses." The problem with that is that in EVERY SINGLE CASE save the Auburn game, they held that team below their norm by double digits.

Those are Alabama level numbers, folks......particularly when a guy named Kirby Smart was running the D. Go back and look. We'd hold 9 of 11 foes below their normal, one would be about what they got, and one would have a good game while we had a bad one (I don't count the FCS teams).


I didn't take out the spooky numbers attained against bozoes but on the whole this suggests to me that an AVERAGE performance by both teams (which is the most you can expect to start with) is that OU won't be able to score more than 32 and UGA is guaranteed to get at least 30.

But the other thing I would caution everyone is to go back and look at UGA's schedule. In the two weeks prior to losing to Auburn at JHS, they played the annual rivalry game (and folks, a rivalry game is another animal most of the time) and another "sort of" rivalry game with SCAR, coached by a former Bulldog.


Georgia 38
OU 21

B1GTide said:

Wrong - Alabama's is considerably better.

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I'll take OU's pass blocking over ours anytime. It seems our OL gets dominated by good DL's too many times.

deliveryman35 said:

I’m curious on what you are basing this on.

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Every body that ranks linemen feels this way. Please do a little research. BTW, the Sooners were not finalists for the Moore Award. Alabama was.

Oklahoma is the best offense Georgia, Clemson, and Alabama will (potentiall) see all year. On the flip side, Georgia, Clemson and Alabama all have better defenses than any Oklahoma has played. So really, it depends on who you favor in this spot. Give me the defenses.

I think UGA takes it.