I'm not sure what you mean by straddling the fence. Statistics aren't ironclad laws. Alabama had a 99% chance to win the
2013 Iron Bowl when Griffith lined up for the kick. The fact we lost doesn't mean the data was incorrect.
My beef with Silver has never been with Silver - it's been with the tongue bathing media (sans Faux News) who only made him a star
because they liked what he was telling them. Had his data shown that Romney was going to win then he'd be a Fox News guest
and nobody else would have him on. Anyone who thinks that assessment is rough need only look at the NY Times treatment of him
the moment he said the Senate was likely to go the GOP in 2014. All of a sudden, he went from the infallible Moses to a guy they
couldn't trust.
His work with data is, in one sense impressive, and he's always modifying it, which is good. It's MUCH more difficult to do a House or
Senate race than the White House. As I've said here many times, anyone with a scintilla of historical knowledge will get 40 of the 50
states (plus DC) right in a red/blue map just based on knowing what has happened. Nobody thought for a second that Hillary was
going to win Utah or Kansas any more than they thought Trump would win California. Nate basically says, "Here's the floor, here's
the ceiling, and here's what to expect plus or minus." Plus, he's an admitted liberal (more centrist though) and seems intelligent
enough to figure for his own biases - as any good pollster should. I used to be decent at it, so I envy the guy in one sense for being
able to make a fortune for what I didn't/don't have enough brains to figure out how to get paid for.
Plus, there's things he has no way of knowing. I told my Oregon bud in early 2006, "Democrats are gonna take the House this year and
win 26 seats (they won 31). But they're gonna fall just short in the Senate." But they won the Senate. He asked me about it and I
laughed, "Hey, man, how was I supposed to know George Allen was gonna utter a racial slur?" Things like the page scandal, George
Allen's insult, Duke Cunningham or the Abramoff scandal could torpedo either side at this point, but such a missile in the current
environment favors the Democrat being able to overcome it more so than the GOP.
People think Silver is the kind of guy who can take a poll, put it in a black box, and say, "This is what's gonna happen."
And hey - he gave Trump more of a chance to win the Presidency than anyone - this after he had actually written that Trump could not
win the nomination.
