2018 Schedule-related Thoughts

RobK

All-SEC
Aug 27, 2004
1,506
7
0
47
Holts Summit, MO
knodell.blog-city.com
It takes two to tango, and doubt that very many elite teams are lining up to play us, either at a neutral site or home-and-home. You'll get the second-tier programs like West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, or Wisconsin who want the exposure, and occasionally a Pac 12 team willing come east to play in east coast prime time, but these kinds of matchups have been the rule for us, rather than the exception. Maybe Duke is a step backward but, again, perhaps there was no better option (plus we owed them a game).

Louisville isn't going to turn down the exposure they'll get playing us. And the same people who'll trash our schedule as it is, would trash it even more if we traded away our only Power 5 non-con game and had an all non-P5 non-conference schedule.

The SEC will be stronger next year.
 

CrimsonForce

Hall of Fame
Dec 20, 2012
12,757
94
67
Media types will always complain about our schedule. They all say they want home-home series but I don't remember getting much credit for playing the one vs Penn St in the 2010s. Even if we had scheduled H/H vs traditional powers like Texas, USCw, Notre Dame, Nebraska, etc. we wouldn't have got credit for it because all those teams have been mostly bad. I mean how is a university supposed to know how good another program will be in 3-5 years. We could schedule a H/H with Washington for 2020/2021 but what happens if Petersen leaves Washington during that time and they're a dumpster fire that year? Scheduling is a complete crapshoot..
 

Tidewater

Hall of Fame
Mar 15, 2003
22,401
13,177
287
Hooterville, Vir.
No one has mentioned this, but when I saw the Citadel, my thoughts went straight to injuries.
I have had students who played against the Citadel and to a man, they said, "dirty players, constantly trying to injure opposing players." Maybe my students were just jaundiced, having been beaten by the Citadel.
There is no chance Bama loses the game, but I would hate for Bama to have injured layers in that game, coming the week before the Barn.
 

RedWave

All-SEC
Sep 26, 2000
1,579
3
0
Arlington, Tx
I have no interest in us opening up against UCF. I think their claim to the title is bunk, and I prefer to not give them the opportunity to possibly catch lightning in a bottle and really diminish this past season for us. I am perfectly fine with Louisville buying out, but if I could choose our opponent, I would take Ohio State.
 

Power Eye

All-SEC
Aug 3, 2005
1,146
1,217
187
47
Not a highly rated schedule. I'm not sure winning those games will give us any quality points.
We may have to blow out teams next year to get due consideration.
I look at next year's schedule and I see a minimum of three (Auburn, LSU, A&M) and as many as five (Miss St, Missouri) preseason top 25 teams. I believe that is as many top 25 teams than we ended up playing in the regular season this past year and we made the playoff as a one loss at-large. It is definitely a manageable schedule, but I think part of the problem is that there are probably only 11-13 programs that have any legitimate chance of beating us. Therefore, unless we are playing 4 or 5 of those teams, then our schedule looks artificially weak. For the record, I think Auburn, obviously, and LSU are two teams that have a legitimate chance of beating us next year. When I say a legitimate chance, I mean a 25% chance or greater of beating us.
 

NoNC4Tubs

Hall of Fame
Nov 13, 2010
8,143
3,854
187
I'm hoping that Louisville will buy out of, or be bought out of, that game. And replaced by UCF. The SOS derived from either one will probably be no worse than FSU this past season.

Safe to say that Bama's SEC competition in 2018 will be the barn and UGA. Have you seen their schedules? The barn plays two FCS schools. Alabama State and Liberty. UGA plays Austin Peay. MTSU. UMass, and GT. :rolleyes:
UCF with a completely new coaching staff ( plus whatever players the lost) just won't be a schedule boost...
 

rolltide_21

Hall of Fame
Dec 9, 2007
11,447
7,489
187
NW AL
You cannot judge the difficulty of a schedule in the preseason. Only until about week 5 does the difficulty of ones schedule begin to show itself. This is one thing the media does that gets on my nerves. They cannot let go of erroneous prognostications and project that on the season. Talk to me about week 5 in ‘18. Then we’ll know if the schedule is weak or not.


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rolltide_21

Hall of Fame
Dec 9, 2007
11,447
7,489
187
NW AL
Actually, they left the SEC on June 1, not that I disagree with your point.

Of course the other little problem with this is the fact that the 1966 season didn't start until September 24. Nowadays we open Labor Day weekend at the absolute latest.





Oh please. There's not a widespread conspiracy against Alabama and there wasn't one then, either.

Here's the first poll, with first-place vote totals included:

1) Alabama (15)
2) Michigan St (12)
3) Nebraska (2)
4) UCLA (6)
5) Arkansas

Then remember these facts:
1) Michigan State was a co-national champion in 1965, so they were already #1 in the UPI poll
2) AP only ranked TEN teams in 1966
3) Michigan St opened against a mid-level NC State on September 17 and won, 28-19
4) UCLA played Pitt ON THE ROAD and blew them to pieces, 57-14 (this was the first time many of the AP voters ever saw UCLA play as the
game was in the East)
5) Tulane was 2-8 in 1965 and hadn't had a winning season in a decade.

Here's the next poll:
1) Michigan St (12 - same as before)
2) UCLA (13)
3) Alabama (10)

In all probability, those five voters simply switched from Alabama to UCLA after watching the Bruins punch in 57 points. The week of the season opener, Michigan St smoked Penn St, 42-8, for the Nittany Lions' worst loss since 1948, Notre Dame beat a good Purdue team led by Bob Griese, and UCLA clobbered Syracuse AGAIN in the Eastern USA........Alabama's vote total from the AP shrunk to two AP votes. Alabama never had more than 4 AP votes at any point during the season until the infamous Michigan St-Notre Dame tie. Even in the final vote, Alabama only had 7 AP votes.

I'm not saying the outcome was just and it would certainly never happen that way today, but there was no 'conspiracy' to damage Alabama, and even had we played 2-8 in 1965 Tulane, it would not have mattered.




Yes, and I just explained why that was. UCLA went back East and played two games and mauled the opposition behind Gary Beban while Michigan St was a defending national champion.
Good stuff.


In addition to what you said, are we really comparing what happened in 1966 to what might happen in 2018? Yeah, college football has changed quite a bit since then especially in scheduling & crowning a national champion . What happened 52 years ago will have no bearing on 2018. How these comparisons of a by-gone era to CFB today keep popping up is beyond me.


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ALA2262

All-American
Aug 4, 2007
4,977
393
102
Cumming, GA
Good stuff.


In addition to what you said, are we really comparing what happened in 1966 to what might happen in 2018? Yeah, college football has changed quite a bit since then especially in scheduling & crowning a national champion . What happened 52 years ago will have no bearing on 2018. How these comparisons of a by-gone era to CFB today keep popping up is beyond me.


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No one is comparing what happened in 1966 in the polls to what might happen in 2018. The statement was made that January is too late to make a schedule change. I pointed out the fact that Bama had to make a schedule change in the middle of the year in 1966, and then threw in a comment about how, IMO, that schedule change effected the polls in 1966.
 

bamacon

Hall of Fame
Apr 11, 2008
17,179
4,352
187
College Football's Mecca, Tuscaloosa
Wholeheartedly agree. Scheduling UCF would be highly shortsighted. It’s ultimately a lose-lose situation for us, and a win/win for them. We beat them badly to open 2018 and no one will bat an eye. It won’t be viewed as discrediting their 2017 season, especially since Frost has left the program. 2017 is done and there’s nothing anyone can do to impact their claims now. Additionally if we beat them and they do lose multiple games, it’s a huge drain on our strength of schedule. Now all we’ve done is beat a mediocre midmajor who we were expected to beat. However, at the same time they get the free advertising and hype of being the midmajor who finally has the stones to schedule a #1 team in the country. Even if we blew them out of the water, they would have lost nothing.

The flip side is even worse though. If we beat them in a close game or, God-forbid, we lost to them by some miracle, everyone will be crowing how it validates their championship claim.

I firmly believe that the matchup would work against us no matter the outcome. At least Louisville is an ACC opponent. Even if they wind up tanking post-Jackson, they still can’t do any worse for us than FSU did last year.


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It’s shortsighted for us but BRILLIANT for UCF. Gotta stay in the news so you can’t blame them. For the record we would beat the HELL out of them.


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bamacon

Hall of Fame
Apr 11, 2008
17,179
4,352
187
College Football's Mecca, Tuscaloosa
To be honest teams are not lining up for a Bama beating these days. The word is out and the evidence is real of the “Bama effect”. FSU was probably the last “best” team Bama will line up against while CNS is there. It will likely be a Coach that has stones that isn’t worried about his job security or an up and coming program like a UCF who WANTS to take that challenge on.


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ALA2262

All-American
Aug 4, 2007
4,977
393
102
Cumming, GA
To be honest teams are not lining up for a Bama beating these days. The word is out and the evidence is real of the “Bama effect”. FSU was probably the last “best” team Bama will line up against while CNS is there. It will likely be a Coach that has stones that isn’t worried about his job security or an up and coming program like a UCF who WANTS to take that challenge on.


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Exactly why Louisville and Duke are Bama's next two neutral site games. And FCS opponents are played the week prior to the barn.
 

TomFromBama

Suspended
May 14, 2003
1,142
0
0
Lower Alabama
Without Jackson, Louisville would be very receptive to a buyout. In fact they may buy out of it themselves. If UCF has a game scheduled on 9-1, it has not been announced. As of now, that date remains open on their schedule. The UCF President says he is not interested in a neutral site game, but he probably has never been offered 4 or 5M to play in one. :biggrin: That will change his tune very quickly. Especially if that neutral site is Orlando.

http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-ucf-knights-football-schedule.php
No offense to anyone, but y'all are thinking like fans, not like Athletic Directors!! (and apologies if this has already been addressed)

Louisville did not schedule this game to have a "sure win" - they scheduled it KNOWING Jackson would almost certainly be gone - heck, they probably scheduled it before they even knew Jackson would be a sensation, much less a Hypeman Trophy winner.

UL scheduled this game for: (A) Money, and (B) TV Exposure against the "Gold Standard" of college football. SPOILER - Both those motivations Still Exist, with or Without Lamar Jackson on the field!!!

The chance of an early season upset if they catch Alabama napping is simply "icing on the cake" but HARDLY the main motivation for scheduling a game like this. Jackson or not, UL is still a "small fish" trying to break into the group of "big fish" - and you only do that by playing more BIG FISH.

This is a Win-Win for Louisville any way you slice it. They make lots of money, but just as important - they get the best TV exposure possible that weekend. If they pull an upset, it immediately catapults them into the Top-10 and NC contention, but even if they lose, it doesn't automatically take them out of contention for ANYTHING - not for the ACC title, not even for a NC run if they can win the ACC.

The idea of Louisville wanting out of this game - frankly, is laughable.
 

TomFromBama

Suspended
May 14, 2003
1,142
0
0
Lower Alabama
Why the heck are we playing Duke in the neutral site game?


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Because Coach David "Butt"cliffe still apparently has some friends in Tuscaloosa &/or Birmingham. Why he would have any friend in Tuscaloosa is beyond me, after the way he stabbed us in the back with the NZAA back in 1999......
 

TomFromBama

Suspended
May 14, 2003
1,142
0
0
Lower Alabama
Not a highly rated schedule. I'm not sure winning those games will give us any quality points.
We may have to blow out teams next year to get due consideration.
LOL!!! Oh my goodness! Look, I don't mean to be disrespectful, but "Quality Points" is a concept that ONLY exists on ESPiN talk shows. Just like "Strength of Schedule" and other MEANINGLESS Buzz Words that the ESPiN talking heads throw out to justify the P_ayoff selections.

Alabama got in this year for the same reasons Ohio $tate got picked in 2014 and 2016 - because we Bring MONEY to the Table. Our ratings for our two games - even the dreaded "All-SEC" Title game - were great! There is NO Other Team in the SEC who would have gotten the same consideration that Alabama got, had they been 12-1 and NOT won their division or played in Atlanta - N O N E !
And frankly, precious few around the Country (O$U obviously being one of the few) who would ever get such consideration.

I find it difficult to believe that anyone still swallows that baloney about the P_ayoffs being about the four "best" teams - yea, its the four "best" - but when the "Double Secret Committee" and ESPiN's executives say "Best", they mean BEST TV RATINGS, which may or may not coincide with "Best" MERIT.

No flames, just the reality. Money talks. "Merit" walks.
 

dvldog

Hall of Fame
Sep 20, 2005
6,570
347
107
72
Virginia
I was at the Duke game in 2010 (it's not often that Bama plays a game that close to Hooterville). Jalston Fowler rolled up a bunch of yards later in the game. I loved watching that dude run.
Still the only game I've seen in person.
 

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