Edit: I would like to preface this post with one thing. The numbers show is that something is happening. They really don't say more than that. This isn't a "the refs hate Alabama" post, this isn't proof of anything of that sort. Basically I'm just saying something is going on and it's probably worth looking into further. To reiterate though, I'm not even trying to say that there is even a conscious effort going on.
I was originally going to post this as a reply in another thread, but I find the numbers compelling enough to put them out there and analyze them in their own thread. Interestingly, after the fuss in the 2013 Alabama/Auburn game over an illegal man downfield, officiating in regards to Alabama became truly terrible.
My apologies if this was considered better as part of another thread, but I think the evidence is compelling and worth analyzing in a broader context without a full hijack.
This issue with officiating doesn't seem to have been prevalent throughout the entire Saban tenure, but within the past few seasons people started to notice something odd. A few years ago for instance people started noting that opposing teams were not being called for holding, at all. This is not an exaggerating, Alabama had one of the very best pass rushes in the nation, they're going through the heart of their schedule, and there are 0 holding calls. Not one at all. This became mind boggling, and people started posting screencaps illustrating how obvious some of those calls were, as Alabama pass rushers got tackled n' what not, but for quite some time holding an Alabama defender simply wasn't a thing. It reached the point that where was jubilation when a single holding call was finally made.
Somewhere in the process it was uncovered that it wasn't just that holding wasn't being called, Alabama was dead last in opponent penalty yards! One would tend to think it was the other way around. Alabama is bigger, stronger, and faster than almost every opponent. Alabama doesn't need to hold, or to interfere nearly as often as the opponent. Logically, Alabama should have very few penalties and the opponents should have quite a few. You have a team with some of the best players and coaches, a disciplinarian in charge, and that's the expected result.
Here's the stats: https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-penalty-yards-per-game?date=2018-01-08
I don't want to dig too deep, it would take too long and as I said the problem didn't present itself until the past few years. Going back to 2010 though here are the annual opponent penalty yards rankings: 90/120, 118/120, 113/124, 93/125. That's already statistically significant and a bit alarming. We're to believe that these overmatched teams are playing some really clean football and that's hard to believe.
I wanted to check the other way around, Alabama's penalty yards, reviewing the same stretch here's what I found: 8/120, 3/120, 7/124, 39/125. This actually makes sense right? Alabama doesn't need to "cheat" nearly as often as an average team, so there are not many penalties. Overall it doesn't look like any clear sign of shenanigans, and during this period. Both Alabama and their opponents were rarely penalized. Looking at more recent numbers, I saw something else I found unsettling, that indicates the bias is kind of alarming in how systematic it is.
This is the period that has Alabama fans very irritated when it comes to officiating. There's something interesting in Alabama's penalties as well:
18/128 (2014), 92/128 (2015), 36/128 (2016), 28/130 (2017). avg: 43.5 (forgive my lazy math) - Alabama's penalty yards
127/128 (2014) 85/128 (2015) 128/128 (2016), 130/130 (2017) avg: 117.5 - Opponent's penalty yards
Let's take another look at the previous four year period again:
8/120 (2010), 3/120 (2011), 7/124 (2012), 39/125 (2013) avg: 14.25 - Alabama's penalty yards
90/120 (2010), 118/120 (2011), 113/124 (2012), 93/125 (2013). avg: 103.5 - Opponent's penalty yards
You will note that simultaneously Alabama penalties went up, while opponent penalties went down, significantly. This isn't some minor aberration, it is an easily noticeable trend and one people figured out without even seeing the numbers. The numbers don't fully reveal how extreme this is, because twice Alabama was dead last with a gap of yards (plural) from the second to last team, so hypothetically they would have fallen further if there was further to fall.
But, I think I see a smoking gun. I'm at a loss for why Alabama was penalized so heavily, that's clearly an aberration, but look at the opponent penalty yards in 2015. Magically, those moved significantly as well. The year that Alabama was the most penalized, Alabama's opponents were also the most penalized (out of those 8 years)! It looks like the refs weren't willing to call penalties against Alabama opponents until they were calling a lot against Alabama as well. What are the odds otherwise of those two things syncing up on the same year? That aside though, the problem seems clear. It's a major one, and I'd love some other explanation, but the numbers seem pretty damning. The odds of this happening at random are so very unlikely.
What explanation is there for why Alabama's opponents are basically the least penalized in all of college football, while at the same time Alabama became more penalized?
I was originally going to post this as a reply in another thread, but I find the numbers compelling enough to put them out there and analyze them in their own thread. Interestingly, after the fuss in the 2013 Alabama/Auburn game over an illegal man downfield, officiating in regards to Alabama became truly terrible.
My apologies if this was considered better as part of another thread, but I think the evidence is compelling and worth analyzing in a broader context without a full hijack.
This issue with officiating doesn't seem to have been prevalent throughout the entire Saban tenure, but within the past few seasons people started to notice something odd. A few years ago for instance people started noting that opposing teams were not being called for holding, at all. This is not an exaggerating, Alabama had one of the very best pass rushes in the nation, they're going through the heart of their schedule, and there are 0 holding calls. Not one at all. This became mind boggling, and people started posting screencaps illustrating how obvious some of those calls were, as Alabama pass rushers got tackled n' what not, but for quite some time holding an Alabama defender simply wasn't a thing. It reached the point that where was jubilation when a single holding call was finally made.
Somewhere in the process it was uncovered that it wasn't just that holding wasn't being called, Alabama was dead last in opponent penalty yards! One would tend to think it was the other way around. Alabama is bigger, stronger, and faster than almost every opponent. Alabama doesn't need to hold, or to interfere nearly as often as the opponent. Logically, Alabama should have very few penalties and the opponents should have quite a few. You have a team with some of the best players and coaches, a disciplinarian in charge, and that's the expected result.
Here's the stats: https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-penalty-yards-per-game?date=2018-01-08
I don't want to dig too deep, it would take too long and as I said the problem didn't present itself until the past few years. Going back to 2010 though here are the annual opponent penalty yards rankings: 90/120, 118/120, 113/124, 93/125. That's already statistically significant and a bit alarming. We're to believe that these overmatched teams are playing some really clean football and that's hard to believe.
I wanted to check the other way around, Alabama's penalty yards, reviewing the same stretch here's what I found: 8/120, 3/120, 7/124, 39/125. This actually makes sense right? Alabama doesn't need to "cheat" nearly as often as an average team, so there are not many penalties. Overall it doesn't look like any clear sign of shenanigans, and during this period. Both Alabama and their opponents were rarely penalized. Looking at more recent numbers, I saw something else I found unsettling, that indicates the bias is kind of alarming in how systematic it is.
This is the period that has Alabama fans very irritated when it comes to officiating. There's something interesting in Alabama's penalties as well:
18/128 (2014), 92/128 (2015), 36/128 (2016), 28/130 (2017). avg: 43.5 (forgive my lazy math) - Alabama's penalty yards
127/128 (2014) 85/128 (2015) 128/128 (2016), 130/130 (2017) avg: 117.5 - Opponent's penalty yards
Let's take another look at the previous four year period again:
8/120 (2010), 3/120 (2011), 7/124 (2012), 39/125 (2013) avg: 14.25 - Alabama's penalty yards
90/120 (2010), 118/120 (2011), 113/124 (2012), 93/125 (2013). avg: 103.5 - Opponent's penalty yards
You will note that simultaneously Alabama penalties went up, while opponent penalties went down, significantly. This isn't some minor aberration, it is an easily noticeable trend and one people figured out without even seeing the numbers. The numbers don't fully reveal how extreme this is, because twice Alabama was dead last with a gap of yards (plural) from the second to last team, so hypothetically they would have fallen further if there was further to fall.
But, I think I see a smoking gun. I'm at a loss for why Alabama was penalized so heavily, that's clearly an aberration, but look at the opponent penalty yards in 2015. Magically, those moved significantly as well. The year that Alabama was the most penalized, Alabama's opponents were also the most penalized (out of those 8 years)! It looks like the refs weren't willing to call penalties against Alabama opponents until they were calling a lot against Alabama as well. What are the odds otherwise of those two things syncing up on the same year? That aside though, the problem seems clear. It's a major one, and I'd love some other explanation, but the numbers seem pretty damning. The odds of this happening at random are so very unlikely.
What explanation is there for why Alabama's opponents are basically the least penalized in all of college football, while at the same time Alabama became more penalized?
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