Some numbers showing the disparity in how Alabama is officiated

KrAzY3

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Edit: I would like to preface this post with one thing. The numbers show is that something is happening. They really don't say more than that. This isn't a "the refs hate Alabama" post, this isn't proof of anything of that sort. Basically I'm just saying something is going on and it's probably worth looking into further. To reiterate though, I'm not even trying to say that there is even a conscious effort going on.

I was originally going to post this as a reply in another thread, but I find the numbers compelling enough to put them out there and analyze them in their own thread. Interestingly, after the fuss in the 2013 Alabama/Auburn game over an illegal man downfield, officiating in regards to Alabama became truly terrible.

My apologies if this was considered better as part of another thread, but I think the evidence is compelling and worth analyzing in a broader context without a full hijack.

This issue with officiating doesn't seem to have been prevalent throughout the entire Saban tenure, but within the past few seasons people started to notice something odd. A few years ago for instance people started noting that opposing teams were not being called for holding, at all. This is not an exaggerating, Alabama had one of the very best pass rushes in the nation, they're going through the heart of their schedule, and there are 0 holding calls. Not one at all. This became mind boggling, and people started posting screencaps illustrating how obvious some of those calls were, as Alabama pass rushers got tackled n' what not, but for quite some time holding an Alabama defender simply wasn't a thing. It reached the point that where was jubilation when a single holding call was finally made.

Somewhere in the process it was uncovered that it wasn't just that holding wasn't being called, Alabama was dead last in opponent penalty yards! One would tend to think it was the other way around. Alabama is bigger, stronger, and faster than almost every opponent. Alabama doesn't need to hold, or to interfere nearly as often as the opponent. Logically, Alabama should have very few penalties and the opponents should have quite a few. You have a team with some of the best players and coaches, a disciplinarian in charge, and that's the expected result.

Here's the stats: https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-penalty-yards-per-game?date=2018-01-08
I don't want to dig too deep, it would take too long and as I said the problem didn't present itself until the past few years. Going back to 2010 though here are the annual opponent penalty yards rankings: 90/120, 118/120, 113/124, 93/125. That's already statistically significant and a bit alarming. We're to believe that these overmatched teams are playing some really clean football and that's hard to believe.

I wanted to check the other way around, Alabama's penalty yards, reviewing the same stretch here's what I found: 8/120, 3/120, 7/124, 39/125. This actually makes sense right? Alabama doesn't need to "cheat" nearly as often as an average team, so there are not many penalties. Overall it doesn't look like any clear sign of shenanigans, and during this period. Both Alabama and their opponents were rarely penalized. Looking at more recent numbers, I saw something else I found unsettling, that indicates the bias is kind of alarming in how systematic it is.

This is the period that has Alabama fans very irritated when it comes to officiating. There's something interesting in Alabama's penalties as well:
18/128 (2014), 92/128 (2015), 36/128 (2016), 28/130 (2017). avg: 43.5 (forgive my lazy math) - Alabama's penalty yards
127/128 (2014) 85/128 (2015) 128/128 (2016), 130/130 (2017) avg: 117.5 - Opponent's penalty yards

Let's take another look at the previous four year period again:
8/120 (2010), 3/120 (2011), 7/124 (2012), 39/125 (2013) avg: 14.25 - Alabama's penalty yards
90/120 (2010), 118/120 (2011), 113/124 (2012), 93/125 (2013). avg: 103.5 - Opponent's penalty yards

You will note that simultaneously Alabama penalties went up, while opponent penalties went down, significantly. This isn't some minor aberration, it is an easily noticeable trend and one people figured out without even seeing the numbers. The numbers don't fully reveal how extreme this is, because twice Alabama was dead last with a gap of yards (plural) from the second to last team, so hypothetically they would have fallen further if there was further to fall.

But, I think I see a smoking gun. I'm at a loss for why Alabama was penalized so heavily, that's clearly an aberration, but look at the opponent penalty yards in 2015. Magically, those moved significantly as well. The year that Alabama was the most penalized, Alabama's opponents were also the most penalized (out of those 8 years)! It looks like the refs weren't willing to call penalties against Alabama opponents until they were calling a lot against Alabama as well. What are the odds otherwise of those two things syncing up on the same year? That aside though, the problem seems clear. It's a major one, and I'd love some other explanation, but the numbers seem pretty damning. The odds of this happening at random are so very unlikely.

What explanation is there for why Alabama's opponents are basically the least penalized in all of college football, while at the same time Alabama became more penalized?
 
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RedWave

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Good work on this. It is something we have all noticed and pointed out, but not many of us have gone to the trouble of researching it to get the details. Thanks for this. Send it on the NZAA and see what they say...
 

RTR91

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Krazy, I posted in the other thread some stats that really support you:

Indy, going off your posts about an official's responsibility I am even more in support of the eighth official that was recently added. Would you say we need more for each game?

In regards to teams' penalties against Alabama, I did some research on it last year.

In 2013, only one team had 4 or less penalties called against Alabama than they averaged in the rest of their games. Georgia State and Oklahoma each significantly exceeded their averages (4 and 5 more against Alabama respectively).

Texas A&M and LSU each were called for 2 penalties against Alabama in 2014, which comes out to 3.5 and 3.8 less per game than they averaged in their other games. No team on Alabama's 2014 schedule was called for more penalties against Alabama than they averaged.

2015 was somewhat of a mixed bag. MTSU, Georgia, Arkansas and Auburn all were called for 3+ more penalties against Alabama than they averaged on the season. Texas A&M and Charleston Southern each were called for 3+ less than their average.

Last year was the really, really bad year. Texas A&M was called for nine penalties against Alabama while averaging six per game in it's other 12 games. Western Kentucky, Kent State, Kentucky, Tennessee, Chattanooga, Washington, and Clemson all were called for 3+ less penalties than against Alabama than they average in the rest of their games.

Just finished looking at the 2017 numbers. Four teams were called for 3+ less penalties against Alabama than they averaged on the season. Tennessee was called for nine penalties while averaged 5.3 in their other 11 games.
 

BamaInBham

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I was originally going to post this as a reply in another thread, but I find the numbers compelling enough to put them out there and analyze them in their own thread. Interestingly, after the fuss in the 2013 Alabama/Auburn game over an illegal man downfield, officiating in regards to Alabama became truly terrible.

My apologies if this was considered better as part of another thread, but I think the evidence is compelling and worth analyzing in a broader context without a full hijack.

This issue with officiating doesn't seem to have been prevalent throughout the entire Saban tenure, but within the past few seasons people started to notice something odd. A few years ago for instance people started noting that opposing teams were not being called for holding, at all. This is not an exaggerating, Alabama had one of the very best pass rushes in the nation, they're going through the heart of their schedule, and there are 0 holding calls. Not one at all. This became mind boggling, and people started posting screencaps illustrating how obvious some of those calls were, as Alabama pass rushers got tackled n' what not, but for quite some time holding an Alabama defender simply wasn't a thing. It reached the point that where was jubilation when a single holding call was finally made.

Somewhere in the process it was uncovered that it wasn't just that holding wasn't being called, Alabama was dead last in opponent penalty yards! One would tend to think it was the other way around. Alabama is bigger, stronger, and faster than almost every opponent. Alabama doesn't need to hold, or to interfere nearly as often as the opponent. Logically, Alabama should have very few penalties and the opponents should have quite a few. You have a team with some of the best players and coaches, a disciplinarian in charge, and that's the expected result.

Here's the stats: https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-penalty-yards-per-game?date=2018-01-08
I don't want to dig too deep, it would take too long and as I said the problem didn't present itself until the past few years. Going back to 2010 though here are the annual opponent penalty yards rankings: 90/120, 118/120, 113/124, 93/125. That's already statistically significant and a bit alarming. We're to believe that these overmatched teams are playing some really clean football and that's hard to believe.

I wanted to check the other way around, Alabama's penalty yards, reviewing the same stretch here's what I found: 8/120, 3/120, 7/124, 39/125. This actually makes sense right? Alabama doesn't need to "cheat" nearly as often as an average team, so there are not many penalties. Overall it doesn't look like any clear sign of shenanigans, and during this period. Both Alabama and their opponents were rarely penalized. Looking at more recent numbers, I saw something else I found unsettling, that indicates the bias is kind of alarming in how systematic it is.

This is the period that has Alabama fans very irritated when it comes to officiating. There's something interesting in Alabama's penalties as well:
18/128 (2014), 92/128 (2015), 36/128 (2016), 28/130 (2017). avg: 43.5 (forgive my lazy math) - Alabama's penalty yards
127/128 (2014) 85/128 (2015) 128/128 (2016), 130/130 (2017) avg: 117.5 - Opponent's penalty yards

Let's take another look at the previous four year period again:
8/120 (2010), 3/120 (2011), 7/124 (2012), 39/125 (2013) avg: 14.25 - Alabama's penalty yards
90/120 (2010), 118/120 (2011), 113/124 (2012), 93/125 (2013). avg: 103.5 - Opponent's penalty yards

You will note that simultaneously Alabama penalties went up, while opponent penalties went down, significantly. This isn't some minor aberration, it is an easily noticeable trend and one people figured out without even seeing the numbers. The numbers don't fully reveal how extreme this is, because twice Alabama was dead last with a gap of yards (plural) from the second to last team, so hypothetically they would have fallen further if there was further to fall.

But, I think I see a smoking gun. I'm at a loss for why Alabama was penalized so heavily, that's clearly an aberration, but look at the opponent penalty yards in 2015. Magically, those moved significantly as well. The year that Alabama was the most penalized, Alabama's opponents were also the most penalized (out of those 8 years)! It looks like the refs weren't willing to call penalties against Alabama opponents until they were calling a lot against Alabama as well. What are the odds otherwise of those two things syncing up on the same year? That aside though, the problem seems clear. It's a major one, and I'd love some other explanation, but the numbers seem pretty damning. The odds of this happening at random are so very unlikely.

What explanation is there for why Alabama's opponents are basically the least penalized in all of college football, while at the same time Alabama became more penalized?
Knew it was bad, but this is shocking. This should be sent to the SEC office and the Alabama athletic dept. It should be sent to Finebaum and posted on SEC and Bama boards everywhere :). I hope IndyBison sees this, I would be very interested in his comments. Anyway great compilation and presentation. Thanks
 

BamaMan09

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I recall some of the phantom penalties that happened to Alabama in 2016 and it was so obvious. The Ole Miss game was especially odd. I remember several phantom pass interference penalties and numerous instant replays that dragged that game out. It lasted nearly four hours with all the instant replays and commercial breaks. The Clemson game needs no further explanation. The pick plays robbed that team of another national title and that's a shame because it was one of the greatest defensive football teams that Alabama has ever had. That team had numerous non offensive touchdowns that turned games.
 

uaintn

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Nope, that would probably make it worse. They don't like to be called out.
I agree they are very thin-skinned and retributive to the point of corruption. But at this point how much worse can it get? We are already flirting with last place on a perennial basis. Trick is to get someone to carry the fight that isn't affiliated with Alabama.

If nothing else, having Cecil or Casagrande or Suttles going with this would at least put paid to all the "cheating refs pull for Bama, Paul" talk. They cheat, all right. Just not for Alabama.
 

DzynKingRTR

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I agree they are very thin-skinned and retributive to the point of corruption. But at this point how much worse can it get? We are already flirting with last place on a perennial basis. Trick is to get someone to carry the fight that isn't affiliated with Alabama.

If nothing else, having Cecil or Casagrande or Suttles going with this would at least put paid to all the "cheating refs pull for Bama, Paul" talk. They cheat, all right. Just not for Alabama.
You think someone actually writing an article on this would end that kind of talk? the types that make the claim could actually have a ref say he does it on purpose could show all of them bank transactions and show all the videos of the actual infractions and these idiots would claim the REC paid them all to lie and claim they are all Bama homers. All of this does nothing. It is pointless to even talk about anymore.
 

KrAzY3

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I would say that this post isn't really intended to be a witch hunt or anything. From what I have so far is just compelling evidence that something is happening. To really start to pinpoint exactly what's going on would take a lot of digging into the data, and even then it wouldn't be a why, but rather a what. In terms of Alabama, if they were to consider making any case to the SEC about this situation, obviously they'd need way more than the fact that they're the most penalized team. They'd need to do things like breakdown entire games showing a disparity from actual penalties to ones that are called. This is one of those situations where it is easy to tell there is something wrong, but very hard to definitively say what that is.
 

4Q Basket Case

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That just proves the conspiracy more. See, the REC, and the SEC, and the NCAA, and the CFP are in cahoots to make sure Saban gets #7.

This penalty stuff is just a coverup.

What they do is, they penalize Alabama huge yards when it doesn't matter. But when it matters, they're all in for Alabama. That way, they cover up their conspiracy with overwhelming evidence the other way.

In other words, they're guilty precisely because of all the evidence pointing in the opposite direction!

Excuse me. I've been sweating a lot. I need to re-galvanize my hat.
 
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Tenntiderman

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Wish my Dad could read this data. He believed in the 60s and 70s that the refs stopped the games whenever Bama got a crucial turnover because they were trying to affect the outcome. He may have been right at times. I certainly believe that calls are made or not made because of Bama fatigue. Illegal procedure is a weapon in the Red Zone,
 

PA Tide Fan

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As the statistics show the trend started right after Saban won his 1st title at Bama and has gotten worse since. Sure, opposing coaches tell their players they can't commit dumb penalties and beat Bama but still, when Bama has superior athletes the opponent has to do something to slow us down. When we had the great pass rushers the opponents had to hold to give their QB's time to throw.

I would say if Tua is the starting QB next season and we have a high scoring, more pass oriented offense look for a lot of holding penalties called on our guys. If the officials want to try and keep the game competitive as long as possible which is one theory to explain this then expect it to happen. No better way to neutralize our offense than to take a 40 yd pass completion and bring it back on a holding penalty.
 

Redwood Forrest

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Wish my Dad could read this data. He believed in the 60s and 70s that the refs stopped the games whenever Bama got a crucial turnover because they were trying to affect the outcome. He may have been right at times. I certainly believe that calls are made or not made because of Bama fatigue. Illegal procedure is a weapon in the Red Zone,
This is my thinking too. Take the game against Georgia last week, for example. I lurked on many boards around the SEC and other conferences and the main theme was the refs are for Bama. That is Bama fatigue and jealously. I really think subconsciously the refs don't want to be accused of cheating for Bama -- and face it, they will be accused of that in every game of any merit.
 

TiderMan

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Wow, we have won 5 National Championships in 9 years and y'all are still complaining and whining about the refs. I would hate to hear what y'all would say and how miserable y'all would be if we hadn't won any or just 2 or 3 championships.

Here is some free advice, take a deep breath - relax - and enjoy the run that Bama football is on. Life is too short to get worked up over the referees. RTR
 

crimsonaudio

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Wow, we have won 5 National Championships in 9 years and y'all are still complaining and whining about the refs. I would hate to hear what y'all would say and how miserable y'all would be if we hadn't won any or just 2 or 3 championships.
So if Bama is winning despite a massive disparity in calls we should just shrug and be okay with that?

You do realize that we should be celebrating three in a row right now, save for a non-call on the last play of the game last year?

Here is some free advice, take a deep breath - relax - and enjoy the run that Bama football is on. Life is too short to get worked up over the referees.
Goodness, drama much? No one is losing any sleep, we just want the games called fairly.
 

MattinBama

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Wow, we have won 5 National Championships in 9 years and y'all are still complaining and whining about the refs. I would hate to hear what y'all would say and how miserable y'all would be if we hadn't won any or just 2 or 3 championships.

Here is some free advice, take a deep breath - relax - and enjoy the run that Bama football is on. Life is too short to get worked up over the referees. RTR
 

KrAzY3

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y'all are still complaining and whining about the refs.
Personally I'm trying to limit my complaints about the refs. I think my original post said refs once, and I edited it to say refs once more (to make it clear I'm not trying to witch hunt refs).

What I am doing is posting numbers and trying to analyze them a bit. Is that unwarranted? This is a conversation that really began in 2014 though, during the season, when people started to note something odd. If I hadn't looked up the numbers this year, saw Alabama dead last (again) in opponent penalty yards, I probably wouldn't have bothered. But, how can anyone say that the fact that it keeps happening is not a concern?

I did want to look a bit more into the numbers though, and here's part of why it bothers me. I think we all know it's counter intuitive that Alabama now has more penalties called against them then their opponents right? I mean a lot of fans of other programs seem to think Alabama is the one getting the calls, but furthermore its logical to assume that some lesser teams would hold more often, or interfere more often (Auburn game), call pick plays, chop blocks, etc... to make up for Alabama's superiority. It isn't logical that a well disciplined, extremely talented team like Alabama would have more penalties than their opponents is it? If it was close though, I'd be ok with it. The first four year stretch I illustrated, showed Alabama near the top in their penalties and near the bottom in opponent penalties, that I can accept. It just says the refs aren't throwing many flags. But, when Alabama started getting more penalties in conjunction with their opponents getting less? Something is not right about that.

I already showed the rankings, so we know it's not just one year throwing everything off, the numbers have been relatively consistent over each four year section.
From 2010-2014 Alabama averaged 37.18 penalty yards against. Their opponents averaged 40.65 penalty yards against for a +3.47. This is kind of what we'd expect, if anything more in favor of Alabama, but very low penalties against Alabama, because why would they need to cheat, right?

From 2014-2017 Alabama averaged 47.42 penalty yards against. Their opponents averaged 37.45 penalty yards against for a -9.97. I can think of no good explanation for that change. We're talking about a 13.44 penalty yard per game shift! Why? That is so different about Alabama football in the past four years? From 2010 they had multiple quarterbacks, multiple coordinators, two national titles. What is so different as to warrant that sort of shift?

You really want to feel the magnitude of what happened though, from 2014-2017 Alabama has had something like 578 more penalty yards than their opponents (that's not counting the positive difference in penalty yards one would expect)! That's huge. Why should we ignore that?
 

UAllday

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Agree. To me you are saying it is not systematic. Maybe human nature to feel bad for the smaller slower guy. May be a subconscious "I don't want people to think I'm paid" or just simply I'm tired or them.
Not exactly sure of the reasoning just know it is there.
Numbers don't lie
 

BamaMan09

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Wow, we have won 5 National Championships in 9 years and y'all are still complaining and whining about the refs. I would hate to hear what y'all would say and how miserable y'all would be if we hadn't won any or just 2 or 3 championships.

Here is some free advice, take a deep breath - relax - and enjoy the run that Bama football is on. Life is too short to get worked up over the referees. RTR
Is this some kind of troll attempt ? Alabama was robbed against Clemson last year with the pick plays not being called. We could very easily be three time national champions.
 

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