Power Five games played by conference

selmaborntidefan · Jan 27, 2018

Redwood Forrest said:
Just for discussion purposes I will throw this out to ponder. Three teams listed below are being considered for the fourth spot in the CFP Playoff. All three are Power Five teams. All have 11-1 records. None are Conference Champions. If OCC were the deciding factor, who would you pick? BTY, these are actual schedules from 2017.

OOC schedules

Team A: Bethune-Cookman, Toledo and Notre Dame.
Team B: Western Michigan, Texas, and Notre Dame.
Team C: Colorado State, Texas State and Northern Colorado.

The question is loaded because it presumes a single criteria that is not really part of the discussion. I believe (without looking) that team B is probably USC.

I also doubt your scenario is realistic. Make no mistake, I’m not saying it could NEVER happen but the other three teams and their records and their H2H comes into play and we don’t have it. For example, was one of these teams a division champ that lost a close conference title game? Did they have similar records against similar opponents?

There is no silver billet single criteria to determine this. I sincerely appreciate the discussion proposal but the reality requires more data. The myth has arisen that we got in the playoff because Ohio St lost to Iowa by 31 points. That’s too simplistic. If that 31-point loss was their only loss, I think they go and we stay home. It wasn’t the 31-point Iowa loss but the fact it was their second loss. A win over OU would have offset it. Of course, then we likely make it in over two-loss OU.

Redwood Forrest · Jan 27, 2018

selmaborntidefan said:
The question is loaded because it presumes a single criteria that is not really part of the discussion. I believe (without looking) that team B is probably USC.

I also doubt your scenario is realistic. Make no mistake, I’m not saying it could NEVER happen but the other three teams and their records and their H2H comes into play and we don’t have it. For example, was one of these teams a division champ that lost a close conference title game? Did they have similar records against similar opponents?

There is no silver billet single criteria to determine this. I sincerely appreciate the discussion proposal but the reality requires more data. The myth has arisen that we got in the playoff because Ohio St lost to Iowa by 31 points. That’s too simplistic. If that 31-point loss was their only loss, I think they go and we stay home. It wasn’t the 31-point Iowa loss but the fact it was their second loss. A win over OU would have offset it. Of course, then we likely make it in over two-loss OU.

Well, I said "If OCC were the deciding factor, who would you pick?" Yes, one is USC and another is Miami and both could have been in the mix but dropped out. So, if OOC were the deciding factor I would have to pick USC and certainly not Colorado with a wimpy OOC.

selmaborntidefan · Jan 27, 2018

Redwood Forrest said:
Well, I said "If OCC were the deciding factor, who would you pick?" Yes, one is USC and another is Miami and both could have been in the mix but dropped out. So, if OOC were the deciding factor I would have to pick USC and certainly not Colorado with a wimpy OOC.

Your proposed scenario still doesn’t work because we can settle USC-Colorado on the basis of USC winning head to head by 14 points on the road.

KrAzY3 · Jan 27, 2018

Redwood Forrest said:
Well, I said "If OCC were the deciding factor, who would you pick?" Yes, one is USC and another is Miami and both could have been in the mix but dropped out. So, if OOC were the deciding factor I would have to pick USC and certainly not Colorado with a wimpy OOC.

This OOC stuff is a bit misleading because conference games do matter, and the SEC has consistently been the strongest conference. I don't get why the SEC has to both play the toughest conference games and the toughest non-conference games, why is that?

Mystical · Jan 27, 2018

This will matter if the propaganda machine convinces the general public that playing power 5 teams is harder even if the reality is not true. It will only matter if the SEC gets left out because the sentiment has flowed up to the selection committee.

KrAzY3 · Jan 27, 2018

Mystical said:
This will matter if the propaganda machine convinces the general public that playing power 5 teams is harder even if the reality is not true. It will only matter if the SEC gets left out because the sentiment has flowed up to the selection committee.

The issue is that it is a moving target. The UCF argument this year was not that that sort of thing matters, but that going undefeated matters. So what does that mean? The SEC could really beef up their schedule, then watch as a two loss team still gets left out, despite insane SoS?

The other argument was the conference champions argument. Once again, this just completely left out SoS/OOC and argued only conference games mattered.

The "Power 5" OOC argument has never really materialized as a major factor. I've never heard the committee discuss it (for them a quality win is a quality win), but I have heard pundits discuss it. Thus far though the committee has not been tricked into valuing a game more merely because it happened to have an opponent from a Power 5 conference.

Likewise, someone can say an FCS win doesn't really mean anything, and that is fair enough. But it doesn't mean anything to beat the 100th ranked team either. So, if we really want to have a discussion about scheduling games that matter, it would be about scheduling quality opponents, not about scheduling Power 5 opponents. To the earlier points though, if a team really did schedule an absolutely brutal schedule, the media would still revert to just wanting to count wins and losses...

Redwood Forrest · Jan 27, 2018

selmaborntidefan said:
Your proposed scenario still doesn’t work because we can settle USC-Colorado on the basis of USC winning head to head by 14 points on the road.

You are right about the head-to-head. I was just throwing out three teams at random. In my scenario they did not play each other and the deciding factor was OOC. Remember, you did not know the third team was Colorado until I told you.

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